Sunday Night Baseball: Red Sox vs. Dodgers:
Big markets are front and center once again, as the Boston Red Sox face the Los Angeles Dodgers on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. With no SNB last week due to the All-Star Break, the Red Sox are actually making a second straight appearance in primetime after beating the Yankees 3-0 two weeks ago in this spotlight game.
The Dodgers, who struggled heading into the Break, have taken the first two in the series over the Red Sox, who were playing their best baseball of the season going into the Midsummer Classic. Can they rally the squad and avoid the sweep tonight?
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How to Watch Red Sox vs. Dodgers
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday July 21, 7:10 p.m. ET
Red Sox vs. Dodgers MLB Odds
Boston Red Sox -102 // Los Angeles Dodgers -118
Total: 9 (-105/-115)
Red Sox vs. Dodgers Game Preview
Boston hit the middle of July on a heater. The team had been .500 or a game on either side for a long time before beating the Yankees on June 16, coincidentally, on Sunday Night Baseball, to improve to 37-35. After losing the first game of that series to fall to 35-35, the Red Sox went on a rampage, winning 18 of 25 games to become firmly entrenched in a Wild Card spot and close the game in the division from 14 games down to as low as 4.5 games.
Now, though, the Red Sox are hoping that this new skid isn’t going to be a long-term thing. They’ve had late leads in each of the first two games, blowing a 1-0 lead in the eighth on Friday and a 4-3 lead in the ninth on Saturday, plus a 6-4 lead in the 10th.
These have been big wins for the Dodgers, who seemed to be going through the motions for a while. Their lead in the NL West has never reached double digits, but they’ve been up at least 5.5 games since May 5. The Dodgers peaked at 20 games over .500 on July 6, but got swept by the Phillies and went just 1-6 over the final seven games of the first half.
As for tonight’s game, former Red Sox hurler James Paxton gets the call for the Dodgers and Kutter Crawford will go for Boston. It has been an odd season for Paxton, who has a 4.38 ERA with a 4.82 xERA and a 4.95 FIP in 84.1 innings of work. His K% is down 9% from last season and his BB% is up 4% to a whopping 12%, so he’s had major issues missing bats and avoiding walks.
His 3.6% K%-BB% is the second-worst mark among pitchers with at least 80 innings. Only Colorado’s Dakota Hudson is worse and he has a 5.84 ERA, so Paxton has been quite fortunate to be as effective as he has. That said, Paxton has allowed 16 of his 42 runs in two starts and has actually allowed three or fewer runs in 13 of 17 outings.
Crawford has been extremely consistent and a big reason why the Sox are having the season that they are. He’s got a 3.00 ERA with a 3.69 xERA and a 3.77 FIP over 114 innings of work. His .248 BABIP is a little bit on the low side, so there are some mild negative regression indicators, but he has a strong 24.3% K% to go with a 6.7% BB%. His 17.6% K%-BB% ranks 31st out of 106 pitchers in that sample where Paxton ranks 105th.
In three starts prior to the Break, Crawford allowed one run on 10 hits over 20 innings with a 15/1 K/BB ratio. He had a miserable stretch from May 24 to June 21 with 29 runs allowed over 34.2 innings, but he has righted the ship now.
The bullpens are worth watching tonight. The Red Sox have had relief issues each of the last two nights, as Kenley Jansen threw 25 pitches with a blown save. The Dodgers used six relievers yesterday and four on Friday, so they’ve gotten some work in.
The Red Sox are 29th in wOBA at .275 and have a 32.2% K% against lefties over the last 30 days, so I’ll look to back Paxton and the Dodgers here, as it seems like LA is a little more engaged now that the All-Star Break has passed.
Pick: Dodgers -118
Red Sox vs. Dodgers Player Props
Kutter Crawford Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105)
Crawford has gone over this number in 11/20 starts and the Dodgers rank second in BB% at 10% and third at 9.9% over the last 30 days. The Dodgers don’t see Crawford very often, but consistently rate among the best teams in not chasing pitches outside the zone. At plus money, I feel like this is worth a shot, especially since manager Alex Cora is just fine with letting Crawford turn lineups over for a third time. His 112 batters faced the third time through is tied for 24th and the Dodgers are very skilled at making pitchers work.
