MLB Team Performance Angles for This Weekend’s Games
Back when I used to helm the VSiN Point Spread Weekly, we published a weekly MLB Team Report for subscribers. We would provide weekly updates for each team on their performance levels in various situations. As an editor and as a baseball bettor, it helped me keep on top of the important team tendencies. When you look at as much data as I do daily, it can get lost in the shuffle. While some of this information can still be found on the data pages of VSiN.com, I find myself not using it as much as I probably should. With that in mind, as we head towards August and with another huge slate of games on tap for this weekend, I figured it would be a great time to peruse the old VSiN MLB Team Report and share some of the most interesting findings, specifically where they pertain to this weekend’s matchups.
For your benefit, and to reintroduce you to the report if you’ve never seen it, I’ve included a link to the latest report, a snapshot from Friday morning, July 25th.
Top MLB Resources:
Here are some of the top trends and various performance angles that stood out to me as I analyzed the report and each team’s recent game action. They are sorted by the board numbers for Friday’s games:
(901) MIAMI (48-53) at (902) MILWAUKEE (61-41)
Key Angle(s): MILWAUKEE is 33-17 for +12.07 units at home this season as well as 28-18 for +8.07 units in day games this season.
Steve’s thoughts: The Brewers have ascended to the top team in the league in terms of won-lost record, despite a 0-4 start in which they allowed 47 runs. They return home for the first time since July 13th, and it figures to be a special weekend for the franchise, as they will be celebrating the 25th anniversary of their venue, once better known as Miller Park. What makes these two trend angles most interesting is that the Brewers are not only back at home, where they allow just 3.5 runs per game (-0.7 better than on the road), but they are also playing a rare Friday day game, and they are scoring 5.1 in day games this season. Seems like a nice spot for Milwaukee, particularly Friday and Sunday.
(903) ARIZONA (50-53) at (904) PITTSBURGH (42-61)
Key Angle(s): PITTSBURGH is 29-24 for +3.82 units at home in 2025
Steve’s thoughts: These are two teams coming off sweeps and coming into this series heading in opposite directions. Crazy enough, it is the Pirates that are hot, having just swept the AL Central-leading Tigers while allowing just six runs. That aligns with a lot of what we have seen from Pittsburgh this season, as they are five games over .500 at home and allowing just 3.8 RPG. On the road, the Pirates are an atrocious 13-37. Meanwhile, Arizona is coming off an ugly sweep at the hands of Houston, where the offense went cold, scoring just seven runs. The DBacks face Paul Skenes on Sunday, making the Friday and Saturday contests all the more important to staying in the hunt for an NL Wild Card spot.
(905) SAN DIEGO (55-47) at (906) ST LOUIS (52-51)
Key Angle(s): SAN DIEGO is 24-30 for -5.81 units on the road, while St. Louis is 30-20 for +7.63 units at home
Steve’s thoughts: This series showcases a convergence of strength and weakness in the home/road dichotomy, as San Diego has been a far weaker team on the road this season, while St. Louis has been a much stronger team at home. The Padres’ talented offensive lineup scores just 3.9 RPG in road games, while the Cardinals are pumping in 4.8 RPG at home. Both figures are noticeably off their paces in the opposite scenario. San Diego has also lost three straight games and has fallen to a position of leading the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot by just one game. The Cardinals are 2-1/2 games back for that position and could use a big series here, and they will lean on their red-hot bullpen, which has an ERA of 1.41 in its last eight games.
(907) NEW YORK METS (59-44) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (54-49)
Key Angle(s): SAN FRANCISCO is 44-32 for +3.76 units versus right-handed starting pitchers this season but 10-17 for -12.34 units against lefties
Steve’s thoughts: The Mets might be starting to figure things out again, riding a four-game winning streak into their weekend series in San Francisco. They will be throwing their top three pitchers this weekend in what figures to be a defining NL playoff picture matchup. Unfortunately, of the three, only David Peterson is a southpaw, and perhaps manager Carlos Mendoza may have been better off holding Wednesday’s starter Sean Manaea until today, especially considering the weakness the Giants have shown against lefties. San Francisco scores just 3.8 RPG in the matchup. However, they also may be getting hot at the right time, riding back-to-back wins and having reached double-digit hit totals in four of their last five outings.
(909) TORONTO (60-42) at (910) DETROIT (60-43)
Key Angle(s): TORONTO has won six of its last seven games while DETROIT is on a 1-10 skid
Steve’s thoughts: There is no series this weekend that matches hot and not more than this one in Detroit. The Blue Jays have ascended to the top of the AL East Division and boast a comfortable 4.5-game lead. Not only have they won six of their last seven games, but they are also 19-5 since June 26th. In the recent torrid stretch, they have scored 6.4 RPG. Meanwhile, the Tigers may have put it on cruise control a little too early as their recent skid of 1-10 has seen their once double-digit game lead in the AL Central shrink to eight games. Obviously, that is still a pretty comfortable position to be in, but it would be ideal if they could get a win Friday with Keider Montero without having to put all their eggs in the Tarik Skubal basket on Saturday.
(911) ATHLETICS (42-62) at (912) HOUSTON (60-42)
Key Angle(s): ATHLETICS are just 11-20 in divisional games this season, producing -9.61 units of loss for backers
Steve’s thoughts: The ROI on the Athletics’ divisional games sits at -31% even after their road underdog win at Houston on Thursday night. They caught a bit of a break with the Astros naming Jason Alexander late as their starting pitcher, and he is having an atrocious campaign after being acquired from these same Athletics earlier this season. The rest of the weekend doesn’t figure to be as easy, particularly with Houston’s bullpen heating up, allowing just three earned runs in their last 24 innings of work.
(913) CLEVELAND (51-50) at (914) KANSAS CITY (50-53)
Key Angle(s): CLEVELAND is 17-9 for +8.39 units versus AL Central rivals in 2025
Steve’s thoughts: This is a 32.2% ROI trend on the Guardians, who have turned things around recently, winning 11 of their last 14 games to close to within eight games of the Tigers in the AL Central. Continuing to play well against divisional foes will certainly help the pursuit, especially with six games remaining against Detroit. So will keeping up their recent offensive surge, as Cleveland’s once hibernating attack has erupted for 5.8 RPG during the 14-game surge. The Royals are playing reasonably well themselves, with an 11-7 record in their last 18 games.
(915) SEATTLE (54-48) at (916) LOS ANGELES ANGELS (49-53)
Key Angle(s): SEATTLE is 24-15 (+7.17 units) in day games and 31-33 (-11.45 units) in night games this season. LA Angels are 10-22 (-11.77 units) in day games but 39-32 (+16.36 units) in night games
Steve’s thoughts: These are some pretty extreme situational discrepancies for both teams, and the trends are accompanied by differences of at least 0.6 RPG scored in the various situations. Who does it tend to benefit for the rest of this weekend’s series? You’d have to figure the Angels, who host this series with Friday and Saturday night contests. Only the Sunday tilt would suggest leaning towards Seattle’s day/night strength edge. The Mariners are the hotter team, 7-3 in their last 10, while the Angels have dropped four straight.
(917) PHILADELPHIA (58-44) at (918) NY YANKEES (56-46)
Key Angle(s): PHILADELPHIA is 46-28 for +7.91 units vs. RH starting pitchers but 12-16 for -9.98 units against LHs
Steve’s thoughts: I know it’s tough to always be looking ahead to lineup righty and lefty starters in a given series to match up with an upcoming opponents’ strength or weakness, especially when you may have a shortage of one another, but there has to be some concern with the high price being put on the Yankees for game 1 of their series with Philadelphia with Will Warren on the mound. Warren is, of course, a RH starter, coming off a short outing in which the Braves battered him, and now pitching as a -158 favorite against a Phillies lineup that has beaten RH starters all season long. The Bronx Bombers have also scheduled RH Marcus Stroman on Saturday before finally going with LH Carlos Rodon for the Sunday tilt.
(919) COLORADO (26-76) at (920) BALTIMORE (44-57)
Key Angle(s): COLORADO is 7-23 for -12.93 units in interleague games this season, getting outscored 6.3-3.8
Steve’s thoughts: There are obviously a bunch of situational trends that would suggest fading the Rockies in almost any particular scheduling situation this season. Any angle in which a team allows over 6.0 RPG deserves special consideration. That said, Baltimore has been anything but reliable this season, particularly in the big favorite role. The O’s are also not playing great baseball right now, going 2-7 in their last nine contests, and this skid has added fuel to the trade deadline rumors. Hard to back teams dealing with this type of conflict. Plus, the Rockies are actually winning games lately, four of their last six, in fact. My suggestion: be careful with this series, and perhaps only pick the Saturday spot for the Orioles, as they’ll be throwing a LH starter in Trevor Rogers, and Colorado is only 3-23 vs. southpaws in 2025.
(921) TAMPA BAY (53-50) at (922) CINCINNATI (53-50)
Key Angle(s): TAMPA BAY is 19-11 (+6.87 units) in interleague games this season but 34-39 (-12.93 units) vs. AL foes.
Steve’s thoughts: Teams with identical 53-50 records square off in Cincinnati this weekend as the Reds welcome in the Rays. Both teams are in similar divisional standings positions, 8 and 8.5 games back. The hosts are playing a little better baseball right now, 7-4 in their last 11, with the Rays going just 6-14 in their last 20. However, so far in 2025, Tampa has played some of its best baseball versus National League foes, boasting a 19-11 record while outscoring teams 4.5-3.7 on average. This is a big weekend for both teams as they look to stay in the wild-card hunt.
(923) LA DODGERS (60-43) at (924) BOSTON (55-49)
Key Angle(s): LA DODGERS are 23-22 for -7.35 units on the road while BOSTON is 32-20 for +3.94 units at home
Steve’s thoughts: Just a word of warning on this one, as I am personally not going to confuse Shohei Ohtani’s HR streak and the rare game-winning hit by Freddie Freeman on Wednesday as signs that the Dodgers are all the way back yet. With that walkoff win versus the Twins in their most recent outing, LA managed a series win while outscoring Minnesota 16-15. They aren’t exactly rolling. The starting pitching remains uneven, the bullpen is overworked, and the offense has only scored 3.5 RPG in its last 15. They are also traveling essentially cross-country for this rare series in Boston. The Red Sox have been very good at home, 12 games over .500 and allowing just 4.2 RPG.
(925) CHICAGO CUBS (60-42) at (926) CHICAGO WHITE SOX (37-66)
Key Angle(s): CHICAGO WHITE SOX are 21-29 (-0.1 units) at home this season and 5-1 (+6.22 units) in their last six games
Steve’s thoughts: It seems difficult to even utter the words after the franchise’s struggles of recent years, but are the Cubs getting the White Sox at a bad time? The southsiders are playing some of the best baseball they have in years, fans are getting excited, and now they have the motivation of taking on their cross-town rivals. One win this weekend at home over the Cubs and the Sox will be in positive unit territory at home. How likely is it that they get at least a win? VERY. This team’s bats are hot, having scored 49 runs in the current six-game stretch, good for 8.2 RPG! Oh, and by the way, their bullpen ERA during that stretch is also an impressive 2.01. Don’t assume a Cubs team that has been called lifeless in recent weeks gets up for this rivalry series, particularly with a three-game set versus Milwaukee on deck.
(927) ATLANTA (44-57) at (928) TEXAS (53-50)
Key Angle(s): ATLANTA is 18-31 for -23.48 units on the road while TEXAS is 31-20 for +7.49 units at home
Steve’s thoughts: Here is another series where road weakness collides with home strength. Atlanta has been a frustrating team all year long and has been a total bankroll drainer when they are on the road. Every time you think the Braves are “getting it going”, they deliver a stinker to assure everyone that they are NOT. They are 14 games out of the NL East lead, 11 out of the final NL Wild Card spot. Trust me when I say this team is not making a playoff push. Meanwhile, the Rangers are on a 9-3 surge currently and throwing underrated Nathan Eovaldi to start the series Friday night.
(929) WASHINGTON (41-61) at (930) MINNESOTA (49-53)
Key Angle(s): MINNESOTA is 15-21 for -10.27 units in interleague play this season, while WASHINGTON is 13-14 for +1.2 units in such games
Steve’s thoughts: This might be the most “blah” series of the weekend, as neither team is playing good baseball and neither boasts any trends that really give me that WOW moment. However, if you consider that the Nationals are 20 games under .500 right now, their 13-14 record in interleague games looks more impressive. Minnesota returns home after a 2-4 road trip that culminated in a walk-off loss to the Dodgers and sits 10 games back and in fourth place in the AL Central.
