The Rockies have officially hit rock bottom. Their first 100-loss season in franchise history didn’t really come as a huge shock in 2023, but they’ve now had three of them in a row, including 119 losses this past season. They gave up more than 1,000 runs and scored fewer than 600. The 682 runs that they scored in 2024 was a franchise low and they obliterated that number this past season. FanGraphs data goes all the way back to 1871, which is just outrageous. In that time, there have been 3,450 individual team seasons and only 33 times has a team given up more than 1,000 runs. The 2025 Rockies are the only team to do it in the 2000s and were the last team to do it back in 1999.
Colorado was -424 in run differential. The other 11 teams with a negative run differential combined to be -993. So, yes, that would be rock bottom. The Athletics were 29th in pitcher fWAR at 5.9. The Rockies were 30th at 1.5 and the rotation posted a collective 6.65 ERA. The White Sox were 29th in position player fWAR at 6.1. The Rockies were 30th at -3.7. Because WAR is adjusted for the run environment, park factors, and other things to normalize the formula, we can use WAR to compare across other eras. Dating back to 1980, only the 2024 White Sox and 1998 Twins have a lower position player fWAR than last season’s Rockies.
Fortunately, Walker Monfort seems to have taken over daily dealings with the ballclub in place of his father and hired Paul DePodesta as the president of baseball operations, who subsequently hired Josh Byrnes and other smart minds to revolutionize the front office and go all-in on data-driven decisions. I can’t wait to see how it turns out.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Many around the league laughed at the Rockies for having the smallest data department in Major League Baseball. It is wild to think about not leaning into finding out how to make residing in Denver a competitive advantage given the environmental conditions. Now, that might cost some money and Monfort is still the one signing off on the paychecks, but this team has become such an embarrassment over the last three seasons that we may see some growth in payroll moving forward. We’ll probably at least see the Rockies try to make some strides in key areas.
First, they have to make more contact. The Rockies were 29th with a 25.9% K% and paired that with a league-worst 6.7% BB%. The handicap of playing 81 games at 5,280 feet in elevation and then never doing that on the road is so incredibly hard to overcome, but the team has to find a way to whiff less and walk more. Even the two best contributors from last season, Hunter Goodman and Mickey Moniak, had 26.3% and 23.9% K% to go with 5.7% and 4.8% BB% marks. They combined to hit 55 homers and high BABIPs helped the cause, but they were the only two regulars with a wRC+ over 100 and had OBPs of .323 and .306. For Moniak, there were 177 players with at least 450 PA, and his .306 OBP ranked 133th and as Colorado’s second-best hitter.
PITCHING
Colorado’s 5.99 team ERA was the worst in baseball in the 2000s. You have to go back to the 1999 Rockies at 6.03 and the 1996 Tigers at 6.38 to find worse numbers and those two years were in the heart of the steroid era. This team was also 26th in Outs Above Average per Statcast while playing in the most spacious ballpark in the league, so it’s not like the defenders helped the pitching staff out at all. Colorado hurlers allowed a .331 BABIP, which was the highest in the league by 18 points. Of course, their 14.5% HR/FB% was also the highest in the league and that had nothing to do with the defense.
When a new front office takes over with fresh ideas and a lot of Ivy League minds, the pitching usually improves quicker than the hitting. In that respect, there’s some hope for the Rockies to be better, but a rotation anchored by Kyle Freeland in his last guaranteed season and Michael Lorenzen on a one-year deal doesn’t have much upside. Lorenzen’s 14% HR/FB% last season was his highest since 2017. Every pitcher projected in the Opening Day rotation has an ERA over 5.00 per ZiPS and the bullpen has very few reliable arms.
PROSPECT WATCH
The Rockies have made things worse as an organization by having an awful minor league system over the years. There is another Holliday coming, as Ethan will probably debut next season, but there are very few guys of note with a chance to crack the roster this season. The biggest name beyond Holliday is easily Charlie Condon, the slugger from Georgia who has obscene raw power to go with some holes in his swing and his defensive projection is murky, especially playing the big outfield at Coors. He’ll debut this season with nobody stopping him, but I’m not sure how much production we’ll see from a guy who can be manipulated by breaking stuff, especially at the highest level.
2026 OUTLOOK
Generally speaking, the vibes around this team have to be better. There might be some direction now with a new front office and with a second season for Warren Schaeffer as the manager. This team is still talent-deficient and a lot of players will likely be thrust into situations and spots that they are not ready for or not good enough to be in. It will be another long season in that respect, but as the new regime gathers data, finds players who can stick and those who can’t, and creates a plan for the future, this is a big year in that process.
BOLD TAKE: Freeland needs 170 innings for his 2027 option to vest; not only does he fall short, but he’s also traded as a deadline rental
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
Despite being arguably the best hitting environment in MLB, this offense ranked dead-last in OBP, second-to-last in runs scored and doesn’t have much in the way of offensive offseason additions to write home about. SS Ezequiel Tovar and C Hunter Goodman headline the foundation for the future. Tovar can easily get to double-digits in HR and might be worth a sprinkle to hit 20 or more. Goodman has enormous power and can certainly attain 25+ HR again with 81 home games at Coors Field. The buy-low candidates include CF Brenton Doyle and LF Jordan Beck, for both the power and speed combinations they possess. Another year and another IL stint to start the season for 1B/OF Kris Bryant, likely unavailable in any capacity before the calendar turns June. The corner infield spots leave a lot to be desired, but help may be on the way in No. 2 prospect 1B/OF Charlie Condon. Avoid backing the youth and inexperience in the rest of the projected starting nine.
PITCHING
If you achieve a home ERA at Coors Field under 5.00, you deserve a spot in the Hall of Fame. The staff ranks third-worst in projected WAR, led by Kyle Freeland and young fireballer Chase Dollander. It’s hard to back season-long strikeout props with the elevation conditions, but if you’re looking to dream, Dollander is in a great bounce-back spot after his tough rookie campaign. Free agents Michael Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano signed in January and February respectively, adding more experience alongside Ryan Feltner to round out the rotation with another late veteran signing in Jose Quintana. The bullpen is headlined by flamethrower Victor Vodnik and despite the rarity of win opportunities, he still amassed 10 saves in 31 games finished. Setup men Jimmy Herget and Juan Mejia provide the bridge to Vodnik, as well as Brennan Bernandino, coming over in a trade with the Red Sox. The entire staff will try to improve on the league’s worst starting pitching ERA, WHIP, K/9, H/9 and HR/9. Don’t hold your breath.
PROSPECT WATCH
The immediate future is bright with slugging 1B Charlie Condon. His position versatility is great, but the immediate big league need at first base is his best path. It’s a matter of time before he’s a regular in the lineup – does he arrive in Denver some time in 2026 is the only question mark. SS Ethan Holliday is the top overall organizational prospect, but the 18-year-old probably doesn’t knock on the big league door until around 2029. OF Cole Carrigg is a name to track, as well as RHP Brody Brecht, labeled as the most electric pitching prospect in the system.
2026 OUTLOOK
Warren Schaeffer took over as interim manager on May 11 after a 7-33 start under former skipper Bud Black, where the Rockies hit an abysmal .218 as a team and pitched to a 5.77 staff ERA. He finished 36-86 and got the permanent job on November 24 this offseason, with the offense showing the most signs of growth. Changes to the front office (new head of baseball operations Paul DePodesta) signal a sharper focus on player development, but don’t expect any short-term fixes that merit optimism for a significant improvement in wins. Colorado seems destined for another 100+ loss season.
BOLD TAKE: Hunter Goodman hits 35+ HR and ascends to a Top-5 catcher in MLB
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
