We shouldn’t be surprised that the Padres had a quiet offseason, as they finished just three games behind the stacked Dodgers and made the playoffs for the fourth time in six seasons. Of course, they’ve only made it past the NLDS once and that will be a question that needs to be answered in due time, but the state of the team’s ownership has been in flux since Peter Seidler passed away in November 2023. Court battles and lawsuits have ensued and it was even reported this past November that the team might be put up for sale.
To add to the drama, president of baseball operations and GM A.J Preller had one season left on his deal until he signed an extension on Feb. 16. The Padres wound up signing quite a few players late in the offseason, including German Marquez, Nick Castellanos, and Miguel Andujar in hopes that one of those supplemental players is what makes the difference. This team is very good and has been on the cusp for a bit now, but can’t seem to make that last push.
The 2026 version looks similar to past versions. Very high floor. Questions about what the ceiling actually is. There has been minimal turnover, despite the losses of some expiring contracts, but the Padres look a lot like what we’ve come to expect and that should make them pretty projectable.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Petco Park remains an unkind venue for hitters, but that’s not entirely why the Padres fell off the pace in 2025 compared to what they achieved in 2024. San Diego was sixth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ in 2024, but dropped to 16th in wOBA and 13th in wRC+. The team hit just 152 home runs, which ranked 28th in the league, a huge departure from 11th the season prior. So, it wasn’t just Petco. A main factor is that Jurickson Profar’s production was not replaced, as he slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 HR in 2024 while leading the team in plate appearances, wOBA, and wRC+. Ramon Laureano was on a toned-down version of that pace after being acquired via trade and he’ll have a full season with the Friars now.
Jackson Merrill missed some time and saw his production sink a little bit, while the Padres also had to answer some offensive issues with those deadline acquisitions like Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn. The only newcomers to this year’s lineup are platoon player Miguel Andujar and KBO import Sung-mun Song, who slashed .315/.387/.530 with 26 HR for Kiwoom last season. Preller being unable to strike and improve the offense with the team’s status up in the air is a tough pill to swallow, especially with the 2024 to 2025 drop-off that took place.
PITCHING
The pitching staff did improve year over year in enough ways to offset the drop in offensive production and push the Padres into the postseason, despite finishing with three fewer wins. But the task at hand gets tougher now because Dylan Cease signed with the Blue Jays. While Cease wasn’t always perfect, and did have a 4.55 ERA last season with some immense bad luck based on his 3.45 xERA and 3.56 FIP, he made 65 starts and ate up over 350 innings for the Padres in his two seasons with the team, accumulating 8.1 fWAR. I don’t think people realize how hard that is to replace in this day and age.
When you think about Joe Musgrove coming back from another major procedure and lost season due to injury, Michael King with just 15 starts in his second full season as a starter, no Yu Darvish, and having to rely on a huge ball of regression in Randy Vasquez and an unknown in JP Sears, things look dicey. Vasquez had a 3.84 ERA with a 5.37 xERA and a 4.85 FIP with one of the worst K% among starters in the league. I wonder if Preller expected more resources this offseason, otherwise maybe he doesn’t make the Freddy Fermin for Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert deal. If healthy, this remains an elite bullpen, but this rotation has real downside risk.
PROSPECT WATCH
If Preller is indeed gone, the first step for the new regime will be rebuilding the minor league system. Preller’s trade-happy trigger finger has zapped the organization of a lot of talented youngsters. Ethan Salas is the only notable name left and he’s dropping down prospect lists after a wasted season last year due to injury and a bad 2024 season with the bat. San Diego won’t be able to patch holes in the boat this season by trading away prospects because there aren’t many good ones and they have a lot of guys that are old for the leagues that they are playing in. We might be looking at a total teardown soon.
2026 OUTLOOK
I really do hope that the Padres are fully engaged this season because things are on the verge of changing. The projected Opening Day lineup has six players on the plus side of 30, plus four more in the rotation. There are a lot of players still guaranteed money for a long time and some heavily inflated contracts relative to production. Overall, I like the talent on the team, but there’s no organizational depth in case of injury and I wonder if the ownership issues and front office tension will be leaking into the clubhouse.
BOLD TAKE: Jackson Merrill will flirt with, and maybe even obtain, his first 30-HR season
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
The Padres enter 2026 with a top-heavy, star-powered offense. RF Fernando Tatis Jr., CF Jackson Merrill and 3B Manny Machado headline the attack, but that’s where the certainties stop. LF Ramón Laureano, DH Gavin Sheets, SS Xander Bogaerts and 1B Jake Cronenworth will be heavily counted upon to find a surge in slugging, as the 2025 lineup finished 28th in the league in HR. C Freddy Fermin mans the dish and newly signed KBO 2B Sung-Mun Song is ticketed for the starting second base job. It’s a much leaner one through nine than years past, especially losing Luis Arraez to the rival Giants and Ryan O’Hearn to the Pirates. Any injury to Tatis Jr. and/or Machado and this season could go sideways in a hurry. Payroll issues abound and may force the hand of president of baseball operations A.J. Preller if this offense struggles out of the gates.
PITCHING
Staff ace Dylan Cease left via free agency, signing with the Blue Jays, but the Friars got a huge boost when Michael King decided to come back on a three-year, $75M deal. Flanked in the rotation by veterans Nick Pivetta and Randy Vásquez, San Diego gets native son Joe Musgrove back healthy and hopeful for a big 2026. JP Sears fills out the rest of the rotation that has work to do on improving their overall performance in 2025 while sage veteran Yu Darvish makes his way back from elbow surgery. At one point last season, the Padres amassed four All-Star relievers and once again will lean on their massive weapons in the back end to close out games. Stopper Mason Miller leads a contingent of high-90s/low-100mph arsenals, complemented by setup men Adrian Morejon and RHP Jeremiah Estrada. Jason Adam is on the mend from quad surgery, so there’s a few roles to sift through during spring training between David Morgan, Wandy Peralta and a couple other candidates. Make no mistake: this entire unit can once again achieve the lowest bullpen ERA in the sport.
PROSPECT WATCH
Oof. From all the massive trades and deals the last couple seasons, to say the Padres farm system is bare might be an understatement. Selling at the trade deadline year after year leaves them with currently C Ethan Salas as the closest big-league capable prospect in the system. Farther down the development ladder are LHP Kash Mayfield and LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, who figure to be at least a few years from knocking on the proverbial big league door. One arm that you might see with the Padres this season is RHP Miguel Mendez, with scouting reports saying he’s got the best two pitches in the entire San Diego system, in his fastball and slider.
2026 OUTLOOK
Newly-hired manager Craig Stammen takes over as the lead man in the dugout in 2026. Widely respected around the league, he’ll be tasked with squeezing as much potential out of the offense and hoping the pitching staff avoids major injuries in both the rotation and bullpen. The clock is ticking on the current roster construction, with the backdrop of revenue issues and aging arms. They got within three games of the Dodgers last September, but couldn’t close the deal. It’s an even more herculean task this time around.
BOLD TAKE: Big time injuries force the Padres to sell huge assets at the deadline & they miss the playoffs
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
