How can you not feel good for a team whose star player goes by “Big Dumper” winning the division for the first time in 25 seasons? Though Cal Raleigh didn’t win the AL MVP, he did get to play in the ALCS, a series that the Mariners lost after blowing leads of 2-0 and 3-2, falling so painfully short of their first World Series appearance in franchise history. As bitter as the ending was, a team so close in recent seasons got over the hump and they should be better for it moving forward.
Despite five straight seasons with 85+ wins, and three of them with exactly 90 wins, the Mariners only have two playoff appearances because of how the Wild Card bubble has played out and Houston’s dominance in the AL West. The balance of power seems to be shifting now, though, and the Mariners, division champs in their first full season under manager Dan Wilson, are the team to beat in 2026.
While the Mariners didn’t do much this offseason, they have a top-10 prospect in waiting, locked in spark plug Josh Naylor, and brought in a lot of depth arms to try and withstand the grind of 162 games.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Something I mentioned in last year’s Mariners write-up that seemingly carried over to 2025 is how well they performed offensively in September 2024. Scott Servais was fired, Wilson took over, and Edgar Martinez returned as the interim hitting coach. Martinez was jumping around the org as a hitting advisor, and was called into duty in Seattle. He’s now the team’s Senior Director of Hitting Strategy, but with one of the game’s purest hitters in the dugout, the Mariners slashed .264/.347/.433 in September 2024 with a .339 wOBA and a 129 wRC+ that both ranked third in the league. Prior to September, the Mariners were 28th in wOBA at .296, had a 99 wRC+, and slashed .216/.304/.364.
While that torrid final-month pace proved unsustainable as expected, Seattle did make huge strides offensively in 2025, slashing .244/.320/.420 with a .321 wOBA and a strong 113 wRC+, influenced by how T-Mobile Park requires a team to be graded on a curve. The team went from seventh at 40.5% and fourth in Barrel% at 8.9% to fourth in HH% at 42.8% and improved their Barrel% to 9.5%. Along with improved contact quality and authority, the M’s simply made more contact, cutting their K% from 26.8% to 23.3%. With the same group, plus a full season of Naylor, a strong trade addition in Brendan Donovan, and a good platoon stick in Rob Refsnyder, this should be a very good offense again.
PITCHING
While it seemed like the Mariners were up against it because of injuries to Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, the reality is that they had it a lot better than most. Seattle only used nine different starting pitchers and seven of them made at least 15 starts, anchored by 32 from Luis Castillo and 30 from Bryan Woo. Kirby’s early-season injury led to a career-worst 4.21 ERA and Bryce Miller never got on track with multiple IL stints, posting a 5.68 ERA with a 5.36 xERA and a 5.17 FIP one season removed from going 2.94/3.71/3.58 in those metrics.
The Mariners were second in ERA and third in FIP as a staff in 2024. They were 13th in ERA and ninth in FIP this past season, so if they can stay a little bit healthier and regain that 2024 form with an improved offense, this team has a remarkably high ceiling. Given that not much has changed with this group from a personnel standpoint, and the park factor remains very favorable, I’d expect strong numbers again, including a bit of a K% bump that was lacking last season with some of the injuries.
PROSPECT WATCH
Third base was a real sore spot for the M’s, which is why they reacquainted with Eugenio Suarez for the playoff push. He wasn’t very good for Seattle, but that position group posted a .242/.299/.374 slash with a .295 wOBA last season. Fortunately, Colt Emerson is coming. Emerson was drafted as a shortstop, but probably wasn’t going to stick there anyway, as the 20-year-old prep product taken 22nd overall in 2023 will have the chance to break camp with the club. Ben Williamson was 24% below league average offensively last season, so Emerson, who mostly played at A+ and AA, is a guy to follow very closely in the Cactus League and early in the season if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster with his advanced tools.
2026 OUTLOOK
It’s pretty clear that I love the composition of this team. Maybe Wilson brought some new vibes to the clubhouse and Kevin Seitzer, who did some excellent things as the Braves hitting coach for a decade, seems to be improving this group. Pitching coach Pete Woodworth was hired at 31 years of age and has held this role since November 2019 with a lot of positive results. It’s taken a ton of maneuvering over the years, but Jerry Dipoto has this team where he wants it and I’d be very surprised if they don’t repeat in the AL West.
BOLD TAKE: Logan Gilbert’s slider returns to form and he is your American League Cy Young winner
—
Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
What a magical run in 2025. Storybook season with so many memorable moments – and we may be in for another one just like it in 2026. AL MVP runner-up C Cal Raleigh put together arguably the greatest single season from a catcher we’ve ever seen. He’ll lead a Mariners attack absolutely stacked with newly-acquired leadoff man 3B Brendan Donovan, superstar CF Julio Rodriguez, 1B Josh Naylor and LF Randy Arozarena. Speed and versatility will play a huge role in this back half of the lineup, with DH Dominic Canzone, RF Victor Robles, SS J.P. Crawford and youngster 2B Cole Young rounding out the starting nine. T-Mobile Park isn’t known for being a hitter’s paradise by any stretch of the imagination, but it didn’t hold down the home offense, seeing this Mariners team hit for the third-most HR in MLB. A top-10 scoring group is well within reach again and role players INF Leo Rivas, as well as 1B/OF Luke Raley and newly signed 1B/OF Rob Refsnyder, provide plenty of diverse options in late game situations.
PITCHING
It’s been the envy of pretty much every other organization in the game for the last half decade. This starting rotation can be stacked up against any lineup, anywhere, any time. Pick your poison with multiple aces, from Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. Veteran Luis Castillo is still as reliable as any starting pitcher in MLB. Bryce Miller is really the No. 5 starter in name only – he’d likely be at least a No. 2 or No. 3 in many other rotations. Oh, then you deal with the nastiness of the Seattle bullpen. Closer Andrés Muńoz finished second statistically to Aroldis Chapman as the best reliever in the sport last season. Setup men Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier get another power arm to add in the fold, with Jose A. Ferrer coming over in a trade with the Nationals. The scariest part of the Mariners staff is they didn’t really pitch to their full capabilities for most of the 2025 regular season. Best of luck trying to win series against this incredible force of nature
PROSPECT WATCH
Top organizational prospect and No. 9 overall in MiLB is SS Colt Emerson. Widely viewed as one of the best pure hitters in any minor league system, his only real question is what position will be a fit at the big league level? A switch to third base may fast track his call-up here in 2026. 2025 No. 3 overall selection and No. 21 overall MiLB prospect LHP Kade Anderson helped pitch LSU to a national championship and cemented his stock as one of the best arms in the entire draft. He’s got a great shot to rocket through multiple minor league levels in 2026. Seattle also holds two more Top-50 overall MiLB prospects in RHP Ryan Sloan (No. 33) and OF Lazaro Montes (No. 43), as well as a total of six in the Top 100. 2B Michael Arroyo (No. 67) is a name to watch for a potential call to the Pacific Northwest this year. Add OF Jonny Farmelo (No. 78) in and it’s as loaded a farm system there is.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Dan Wilson brought this team within one win of the franchise’s first trip to the Fall Classic. Gut-wrenching way to blow a 2-0 ALCS lead, but it will only fuel the desire and fire for the 2026 group. “Unfinished business” for sure and with Raleigh reprising his role as an MVP candidate, alongside as vaunted a pitching staff there is in the game, the Mariners are poised for another deep postseason run.
BOLD TAKE: The Mariners win the AL West, en route to punching their first-ever ticket to the World Series
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
