From 2000-15, the Cardinals made 12 playoff appearances and won two World Series. After a three-year hiatus, despite winning records in all three seasons, the Cardinals rattled off four more postseason trips, but lost in the NL Wild Card in the final three. With three straight seasons without a postseason berth, including two losing seasons in three years for the first time since 1997-99, the rebuild is on.
Five pitchers had at least 101 innings pitched for the Redbirds last season and three are gone. One pitcher had over 1.8 fWAR. He’s gone, as the trade of Sonny Gray felt like the moment that reality set in about where the Cardinals are currently going. St. Louis also jettisoned two of their top three position players in fWAR in Brendan Donovan (2.9) and Willson Contreras (2.8). He didn’t seem to have much left in the tank, but Nolan Arenado is gone as well, with the Cardinals giving sink-or-swim plate appearances to some of their internal options. After all, the projected starting lineup has eight players drafted by the Cardinals and one international free agent who grew up in the organization.
As the rebuild reaches new phases, this season is about defining who should stay and who should go as the Cardinals look to fly back onto their perch as one of the league’s most consistent teams.
Adam Burke’s “Nerdy” Take
HITTING
Two of the six players with a wRC+ over 100 for the Cardinals only had 70 and 41 plate appearances, so it surely seems like this offense has a good chance to slide backwards. Contreras led the team with 20 HR and Donovan is just a solid all-around hitter who slashed .287/.353/.422. At least the trade of Donovan appears to have opened up a spot for 2024 first-round pick JJ Wetherholt, who would need to be added to the 40-man roster, but he pummeled minor league pitching across three levels last season and projection systems have him as an above average MLB bat. He also checks two boxes of need, as the Cardinals were 20th in stolen bases last season and 24th in BB%.
Wetherholt also played three different infield positions last season, so he is a flexible player that can allow returning manager Oliver Marmol to mix and match lineups based on handedness. Unfortunately, Wetherholt looks like one of just a few ceiling bats on this team. Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson have high BABIPs to uphold (.315 and .312, respectively) to match last season’s production, with Burleson a bigger question mark there than Herrera. This may very well be Jordan Walker’s last hope, as he’s slashed just .240/.302/.378 while also being a terrible defender.
PITCHING
Just like things on the offensive side, this is a season for the Cardinals about evaluating internal candidates. They scratched off a lottery ticket on Dustin May, but other than that, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, and Kyle Leahy, all ranging from 25.6 to 28.7 years of age, are expected to eat the bulk of the innings. You’re not going to find many strikeouts from that group, so this will be a high-FIP pitching staff and the ERA will be dependent on the defense and batted ball luck. That could make this a high-variance team from game to game.
Last season, the Cardinals were 29th in starting pitcher K% at 18.1%, better than only the Rockies at 15.2%. There’s a realistic chance that this season comes in even lower than that, as Gray had a 26.7% K% while the others ranged from 11.1% to 18.8%. The league average GB% for starting pitchers last season was 41.8%. Liberatore was below that, but the other three to make starts were at 59.1%, 50%, and 47.7%. May also has an above average GB% in his career. Those rotation guys should be highly-motivated because there are five very good starting pitcher prospects lurking in the minors and two at AAA in Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews.
PROSPECT WATCH
You’ll see plenty of Wetherholt this season, so let’s talk more about Mathews, a guy who would bring strikeout upside to this pitch-to-contact rotation. He only had a 41.5% F-Strike% in AAA last season, leading to a 17.5% BB%. That’s the bad. The good is that even with all of those walks and 1-0 counts, he struck out over 25% of opposing batters and had just a 3.93 ERA thanks to ground balls and home run suppression. Mathews turned 25 last October, so he’s already an older prospect by nature after being taken in the fourth round out of Stanford back in 2023. His arsenal is deep enough to keep trying him as a starter, despite the control problems, and he had an 8.6% BB% in 2024 over 143.1 innings, so maybe last season was an aberration.
2026 OUTLOOK
If nothing else, Cardinals games should be exciting this season because the offense is going to make a ton of contact and so is the opposition. From a betting standpoint, it creates a very high-variance environment predicated on sequencing and batted ball luck, but this will still be the less-talented team in most games. The Cardinals tied for the league lead in Outs Above Average, and they’ll be heavily reliant on the defense again. SS Masyn Winn was one of the league’s best defenders and Victor Scott had elite numbers in CF. The others will need to step it up.
BOLD TAKE: Not that bold, but when the Cardinals finished last in their division in 2023, it was the first time since 1990. They’re going to do it for just the third time since 1918.
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Jensen Lewis’ “Player” Take
HITTING
The writing was on the wall in 2025 of major changes afoot with an aging core of veteran bats. 1B Willson Contreras and 3B Nolan Arenado are now gone. Trade speculation swirled around 2B Brendan Donovan and he finally got shipped off to the Mariners in a three-team deal. Not a good omen for this offense that produced the second-worst HR total and didn’t really threaten most opposing pitchers a year ago. The lack of star power is startling for this Redbirds storied franchise. Most of the returning cast is homegrown, led by DH Iván Herrera, 1B Alec Burleson, LF Lars Nootbaar and SS Masyn Winn. Will 3B Nolan Gorman finally break through? Can RF Jordan Walker live up to the top prospect hype from years ago? CF Victor Scott II can steal 30+ bases, but will need to improve his OBP to be an asset at the bottom of the lineup. Top prospect JJ Wetherholt may get the chance to win a job out of camp and is certainly a bright spot for the future. Outside of him, the immediate impact of upper-tier position players is really lacking. A lot is left to be desired from this entire lineup and it doesn’t feel there’s a lot of optimism surrounding its potential.
PITCHING
Departed ace Sonny Gray leaves a gaping hole atop the Cardinals rotation. Matthew Liberatore ascends to the Opening Day spot, alongside newly-added Dustin May and holdovers Andre Pallante and top pitching prospect Michael McGreevy. If they don’t improve on a K/9 rate that ranked 29th among starting rotations, get ready for a lot of traffic on the bases each and every game. Veteran bullpen arms JoJo Romero and Ryne Stanek may be auditioning for other teams as trade candidates, so there will be motivation for those two in getting off to great starts. Look for Riley O’Brien to get early looks in closing situations. The rest of the pen is littered with unproven and very youthful arms, trying to prove they belong at the big league level. Despite finishing top-10 in bullpen ERA last season, this unit might look a lot different by the All-Star Break.
PROSPECT WATCH
The future is bright for the Redbirds with Wetherholt likely getting to The Show in 2026 and 2025 No. 5 overall selection LHP Liam Doyle as their ace of the future. LHP Quinn Mathews is nearly big-league ready, as well as switch-hitting C Leonardo Bernal and C Jimmy Crooks. The Donovan trade bolsters the top end of the Cardinals system, acquiring switch-pitching phenom Jurrangelo Cijntje (No.91 overall MiLB prospect), OF Tai Peete and OF Colton Ledbetter. There’s more upside in lower-level talents C Rainier Rodriguez, RHP Tink Hence and SS Yairo Padilla who are all a few years off from challenging to make the big league roster.
2026 OUTLOOK
Manager Oliver Marmol will oversee what looks to be a full-scale rebuild and Cardinals fans need to plan ahead for those expectations. More trades are likely on the horizon, sending proven veteran talent out and acquiring more potential building blocks for the future. President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom fully admitted that “success will be looked at through a different lens in 2026” and that’s never what fans in this baseball-crazed city want to hear. Being perfectly objective: if this team finishes at .500, it’ll be an achievement.
BOLD TAKE: JJ Wetherholt bursts into a starting role, hitting 20+ HR and stealing 20+ bases
For Adam and Jensen’s Season Win Total Picks, get our 2026 MLB Betting Guide.
