Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, May 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 152-115 (+18.77 units, ROI: 7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-185 vs. MIA)
Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 33-10 (76.7%, +23.02 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 53.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-142 vs. KC)
Trend: SEA is 10-2 (+8.30 units) in Bryan Woo day game starts since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-110 at HOU)
Trend: Over the total is 16-5-1 (+10.50 units) in Giants day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 69-39 for +20.00 units, and an ROI of 18.5%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the ’24 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-125 vs. LAD), CLEVELAND (+110 at DET)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 62-21 for +7.89 units, an ROI of 9.5%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-325 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 121-141 for -2.64 units. However, we are coming off three straight winning weeks, so we are trending back towards profitability.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-102 at PIT), HOUSTON (-110 vs. SEA), TORONTO (-102 at TB), CLEVELAND (+110 at DET), MIAMI (+154 at LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 107-124 for -8.46 units. This is still a disappointment, but off three straight winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-102 at PIT), HOUSTON (-110 vs. SEA), TORONTO (-102 at TB), CLEVELAND (+110 at DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 57-65 for -7.45 units (ROI -6.1%), and have dropped -18.58 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (35-30, +6.96 units) are surprising, but we are close to normal negative territory for the first time all season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – TAMPA BAY (-118 vs. TOR), LA DODGERS (+105 at NYM), LA ANGELS (-185 vs. MIA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 75-54 for +1.46 units, seemingly having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at CIN), CLEVELAND (+110 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (-175 at ATH)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 42-32 for +1.31 units, a ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-142 at CWS), ATLANTA (-115 vs. SD), MIAMI (+154 at LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, LA ANGELS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and a ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-BOS GAME 1, SD-ATL, NYY-COL, TOR-TB
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 388-367 (51.4%) for +29.77 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.9%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-105 vs. CHC)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1771-1685 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -246.54 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON GAME 1, CHICAGO CUBS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1735-2217 (43.9%) for -197.79 units and a ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, SAN DIEGO, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES
Home teams that did score well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3591-3157 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -497.75 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON GAME 1, CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, NY METS, LA ANGELS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1020-881 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.68 units for backers and an ROI of 0.9%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-115 vs AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 526-446 (54.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +18.42 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 vs TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 61-128 skid (-35.58 units, ROI: -18.8%).
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+145 vs. PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 17-17 (+12.37 units, ROI: 36.4%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 75-158 (-61.05 units, ROI: -26.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+145 vs. PHI)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 212-207 run (+37.17 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-155 at CWS)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 170-192 (+3.04 units, ROI: 1.7%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TEXAS (-155 at CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 152-115 (+18.77 units, ROI: 7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-185 vs. MIA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +154 (+24 diff), COLORADO +260 (+22), WASHINGTON +130 (+19),
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -155 (+28 diff), BOSTON GAME 1 -125 (+20)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: AZ-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SD-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) MILWAUKEE (25-27) at (904) PITTSBURGH (18-34)
Trend: MIL is 4-17 (-12.18 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-105 at PIT)
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (30-21) at (906) WASHINGTON (23-28)
Trend: Over the total is 16-5-1 (+10.50 units) in Giants day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (31-20) at (908) CINCINNATI (25-27)
Trend: CHC is 24-12 (+6.38 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at CIN)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (22-8 record, +15.58 units) in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at CIN)
(913) KANSAS CITY (28-24) at (914) MINNESOTA (28-22)
Trend: Under the total is 17-8-1 (+8.20 units) in KC road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-MIN (o/u at 8)
(915) SEATTLE (29-21) at (916) HOUSTON (26-25)
Trend: SEA is 10-2 (+8.30 units) in Bryan Woo day game starts since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-110 at HOU)
(923) CLEVELAND (28-22) at (924) DETROIT (33-19)
Trend: DET is 17-7 (+8.09 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-135 vs CLE)
(925) NEW YORK-AL (30-20) at (926) COLORADO (9-42)
Trend: Max Fried is 22-9 (+9.90 units) in road game starts in last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-325 at COL)
(927) PHILADELPHIA (33-18) at (928) ATHLETICS (22-30)
Trend: Over the total is 17-9 (+7.18 units) in Athletics home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATH (o/u at 10)
(929) MIAMI (19-30) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (25-25)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 20-24 (+8.54 units) as an underdog of +135 or more in the last five seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI (+154 at LAA)
(931) BALTIMORE (16-33) at (932) BOSTON (26-26) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Over the total is 16-5-3 (+10.50 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-BOS GAME 1 (o/u at 9.5)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 19-9 (+7.23 units) vs AL East opponents since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+105 at BOS)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #7: Texas at Chicago White Sox, Fri 5/23-Sun 5/25
Trend: TEXAS is 11-1 (91.7%, +9.18 units) in their last 12 games versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 76.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-155 at CWS)
Series #8: Kansas City at Minnesota, Fri 5/23-Sun 5/25
Trend: Home teams in the Kansas City-Minnesota AL Central rivalry are on a 33-10 (76.7%, +23.02 units) run in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 53.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-142 vs. KC)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, May 26)
