The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: AZ is 13-3 (+11.02 units) in last 16 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-112 vs. LAD)

In the ’25 season so far, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 62-31 for +23.55 units, and a ROI of 25.3%! To ensure this wasn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-155 vs. MIL), BALTIMORE (-142 at LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 283-317 but for +73.95 units and an ROI of 12.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+120 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+130 at HOU), TORONTO (+154 at SEA)

Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 33-68 in their last 101 tries (-20.71 units, ROI: -20.5%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+225 vs. SD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 284-233 for +12.81 units and an ROI of 4.2% so far in the regular season. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -27.40 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, ST LOUIS, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 62-31 for +23.55 units, and an ROI of 25.3%! To ensure this wasn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the ’24 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-155 vs. MIL), BALTIMORE (-142 at LAA) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 30-6 for +15.65 units. This has to be slowly draining the sportsbooks, and I’d be surprised if it kept up.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-225 at PIT) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
 A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 43-11 for +15.99 units, an ROI of 29.6%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-340 at COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 89-118 for -15.52 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+130 at WSH), TORONTO (+160 at SEA), LA DODGERS (-108 at AZ), CLEVELAND (+145 vs PHI)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 79-103 for -16.81 units. This is still a disappointment early, but we were able to capture back +6.48 units over the last two weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+130 at WSH), LA DODGERS (-108 at AZ) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks  In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system. It was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 57-43 for -1.09 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+130 at WSH), TORONTO (+160 at SEA) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to u, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): WASHINGTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, HOUSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and a ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 323-331 but for +47.51 units and an ROI of 7.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-135 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (+120 at TB), COLORADO (+225 vs. SD) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 539-722 but for +15.71 units and an ROI of 1.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+130 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (+124 at TB), BOSTON (+105 at KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+120 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+130 at HOU), TORONTO (+154 at SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 283-317 but for +73.95 units and an ROI of 12.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+120 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+130 at HOU), TORONTO (+154 at SEA) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 507-572 record but for +51.89 units and an ROI of 4.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+124 at TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+120 at MIN), LA DODGERS (-108 at AZ), BALTIMORE (-142 at LAA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 386-363 (51.5%) for +30.88 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-125 vs. BOS), DETROIT (-112 vs. TEX), COLORADO (+225 vs. SD)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1749-1665 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -243.35 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, TEXAS, BOSTON, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO 

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1704-2186 (43.8%) for -202.52 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3552-3122 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -487.49 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, HOUSTON, NY METS, LA ANGELS 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1011-871 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +21.32 units for backers and an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 vs. MIA), CLEVELAND (+145 vs. PHI)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 294-254 (53.6%) for +29.45 units and an ROI of 5.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+225 vs. SD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 58-127 skid (-39.78 units, ROI: -21.5%).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+225 vs. SD) 

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 16-16 (+10.77 units, ROI: 33.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 73-155 (-59.68 units, ROI: -26.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+225 vs. SD) 

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 33-68 in their last 101 tries (-20.71 units, ROI: -20.5%).
Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+225 vs. SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 168-187 (+6.54 units, ROI: 1.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (-135 vs. STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 142-112 (+12.10 units, ROI: 4.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-142 vs. SF) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 192-135 in their last 327 tries (+14.38 units, ROI: 4.4%).
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+114 at WSH) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +270 (+78 diff), TORONTO +160 (+25), MILWAUKEE +130 (+18), PITTSBURGH +185 (+17), CHICAGO CUBS +114 (+16), CLEVELAND +145 (+16) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -112 (+20), KANSAS CITY -125 (+20)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections.
System Matches: SD-COL UNDER 11.5 (-0.7), MIL-TB UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L6 years. 

(957) SAN DIEGO (25-13) at (958) COLORADO (6-33)
Trend: Nick Pivetta is 10-2 (+5.77 units) as a favorite of -195 or higher since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-340 at COL) 

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (26-14) at (960) ARIZONA (21-19)
Trend: AZ is 13-3 (+11.02 units) in the last 16 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-112 vs LAD) 

(961) TEXAS (19-21) at (962) DETROIT (26-14)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 25-9 (+15.88 units) in the last 34 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-108 at DET) 

(965) NEW YORK-AL (22-17) at (966) ATHLETICS (21-19)
Trend: Luis Severino is 11-25 (-11.89 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+114 vs. NYY) 

(967) BALTIMORE (14-24) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (16-22)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 20-6 (+12.66 units) in the last six seasons as a road pick’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently) 

(969) TORONTO (19-20) at (970) SEATTLE (22-16)
Trend: Bryce Miller is 3-11 (-8.63 units) vs AL East teams in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-192 vs. TOR)

Series #7: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, Fri 5/9-Sun 5/11
Trend: NY METS are 8-11 (42.1%, -10.73 units) in their last 19 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -56.5%
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-135 vs. CHC) 

Series #9: Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Fri 5/9-Sun 5/11
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 7-16 (30.4%, -4.18 units) in the last 23 games vs. Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is -18.2%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+180 vs. ATL) 

Series #25: Baltimore at LA Angels, Fri 5/9-Sun 5/11
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 18 of the last 24 games (75%, +12.43 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 51.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-142 at LAA)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, May 12)

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