Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Luis Severino is 26-10 (+13.95 units) against teams with a losing record in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-135 vs. LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 331-266 record for +63.04 units and an ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+110 at BOS), SEATTLE (-135 at HOU)
* Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 198-137 in their last 335 tries (+19.03 units, ROI: 5.4%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-305 at COL)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-2 (+8.90 units) when the Astros are a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 345-286 for +1.76 units and a ROI of 0.3% so far in the regular season. This is still an early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down about -38.30 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, ATHLETICS, DETROIT, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, ATLANTA, HOUSTON
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 60-19 for +10.86 units, an ROI of 13.7%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-305 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 116-138 for -4.76 units. However, we are coming off three straight winning weeks, so we are trending back towards profitability.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+114 vs. SD), HOUSTON (+114 vs. SEA)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 102-121 for -10.58 units. This is still a disappointment, but coming off three straight winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+114 vs. SD), HOUSTON (+114 vs. SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 54-64 for -9.45 units (ROI -8%), and have dropped -20.58 units over the last six-and-a-half weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (32-29, +4.61 units) are surprising but we are close to normal negative territory for the first time all season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PITTSBURGH (+105 vs MIL)
3+ games – LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH), WASHINGTON (+130 vs ATL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 72-52 for +2.51 units, seemingly having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-166 vs. TEX), PHILADELPHIA (-305 at COL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 42-30 for +4.65 units, an ROI of 6.5%.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-135 vs LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettor, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full season,s but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): LA ANGELS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and a ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%. June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:
– Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-24 were just 431-379 (53.2%) for -101.23 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, PHILADELPHIA, ATHLETICS, DETROIT, ATLANTA, BOSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SD-TOR, MIL-PIT
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 331-336 but for +52.11 units and an ROI of 7.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+136 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (-125 at TOR), COLORADO (+245 vs. PHI), ATHLETICS (-135 vs. LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 180-122 for +30.58 units and an ROI of 10.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-125 at PIT)
*watch for SEATTLE at HOU, -135 currently*
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 555-733 but for +25.29 units and an ROI of 2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+136 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 288-323 but for +75.15 units and a ROI of 12.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 99-145 for -44.74 units and a ROI of -18.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+105 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 285-247 but for -64.51 units and an ROI of -12.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-142 vs CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 331-266 record for +63.04 units and an ROI of 10.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+110 at BOS), SEATTLE (-135 at HOU)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 521-584 record but for +55.77 units and an ROI of 5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+136 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (-125 at TOR), ATLANTA (-155 at WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1767-1684 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.52 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, LA ANGELS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1732-2212 (43.9%) for -192.51 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-125 at TOR)
Home teams that did score well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3585-3149 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -494.49 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, ATHLETICS, COLORADO, WASHINGTON, DETROIT
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 17-16 (+13.37 units, ROI: 40.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 75-157 (-59.63 units, ROI: -25.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-135 vs LAA)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 35-69 in their last 104 tries (-18.06 units, ROI: -17.4%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-135 vs. LAA)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 123-110 outright (+3.05 units, ROI: 1.3%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-125 at TOR)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 170-189 (+6.96 units, ROI: 1.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): COLORADO (+245 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 63-52 (+15.48 units, ROI: 13.5%) in their last 115 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 150-114 (+17.72 units, ROI: 6.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 198-137 in their last 335 tries (+19.03 units, ROI: 5.4%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-305 at COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +245 (+46 diff), TORONTO +114 (+26), HOUSTON +114 (+23)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOSTON -130 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-BOS OVER 8 (+1.3), TEX-NYY OVER 7 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-1.0), MIL-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.7), SEA-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (31-18) at (902) COLORADO (8-41)
Trend: COL is 1-13 (-10.82 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+245 vs. PHI)
(903) MILWAUKEE (24-26) at (904) PITTSBURGH (17-33)
Trend: Under the total is 19-8-2 (+10.80 units) in MIL night games this season, and Under the total is 18-9-3 (+8.10 units) in PIT night games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-PIT (o/u at 9)
(905) ATLANTA (24-24) at (906) WASHINGTON (22-27)
Trend: ATL is 9-17 (-14.29 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-155 at WSH)
(907) TEXAS (25-25) at (908) NEW YORK-AL (29-19)
Trend: TEX is 5-16 (-10.29 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+136 at NYY)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 26-9 (+16.88 units) in the last 35 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+136 at NYY)
(909) LOS ANGELES-AL (23-25) at (910) ATHLETICS (22-28)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 20-11 (+13.06 units) vs. AL West teams in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+114 at ATH)
Trend: Over the total is 16-8 (+7.20 units) in Athletics home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-ATH (o/u at 10.5)
Trend: Luis Severino is 26-10 (+13.95 units) against teams with a losing record in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-135 vs LAA)
(911) CLEVELAND (26-22) at (912) DETROIT (33-17)
Trend: DET is 17-5 (+10.61 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-142 vs CLE)
(915) SEATTLE (28-20) at (916) HOUSTON (25-24)
Trend: SEA is 18-7 (+6.45 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-135 at HOU)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-2 (+8.90 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: tomorrow, May 23)
