Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 4, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Favorites are on an 18-2 (90%, +13.95 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series.
– The ROI on this trend is 69.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-142 at ATH)
* Teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 269-171 for +56.31 units, a ROI of 12.8% since the start of the 2024 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-110 vs. PHI), ATLANTA (-175 vs. AZ), KANSAS CITY (+105 at STL), BALTIMORE (-102 at SEA)
Trend: Under the total is 24-12-1 (+10.80 units) when CIN is an ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CIN (o/u at 9)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 338-347 but for +48.90 units and an ROI of 7.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-155 vs. COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 425-355 for +1.14 units and a ROI of 0.1% so far in the regular season. We’re off a solid week returning over +7 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -47.10 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO, ATLANTA, TEXAS, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, SAN FRANCISCO, MINNESOTA, NY METS
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 80-47 for +21.31 units, and an ROI of 16.8%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-110 vs. PHI), ATLANTA (-175 vs. AZ), KANSAS CITY (+105 at STL), BALTIMORE (-102 at SEA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 50-18 for +10.11 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground quickly and is just a few heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 vs. CLE)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 72-23 for +13.28 units, an ROI of 14%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-192 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 52-19 for +8.04 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative and has trended back to normalcy over the last few weeks.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-198 vs. CLE), DETROIT (-192 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are in the black once again and riding a five-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 148-167 for +5.71 units.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+105 at CIN), TORONTO (-110 vs. PHI), TEXAS (+110 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+105 at STL), BALTIMORE (-102 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs. SD), NY METS (+124 at LAD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 128-145 for -4.95 units.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+105 at CIN), TORONTO (-110 vs. PHI), TEXAS (+110 at TB), KANSAS CITY (+105 at STL), BALTIMORE (-102 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs. SD), NY METS (+124 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 75-82 for -4.77 units (ROI -3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (41-35, +7.99 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – COLORADO (+130 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+114 at BOS), ARIZONA (+145 at ATL)
3-games – SAN DIEGO (-112 at SF)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 91-67 for +3.00 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-135 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-102 at SEA)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to another strong start, 51-36 for +6.91 units, a ROI of 7.9%. This is coming off +2.82 units last week.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-155 vs. COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettor, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, ST LOUIS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-CIN, CLE-NYY
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 338-347 but for +48.90 units and a ROI of 7.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-155 vs. COL)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 565-744 but for +25.72 units and a ROI of 2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+130 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+114 at BOS), MILWAUKEE (+105 at CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 294-330 but for +75.64 units and an ROI of 13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+130 at MIA), LA ANGELS (+114 at BOS), MILWAUKEE (+105 at CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 533-598 record, but for +54.59 units and an ROI of 4.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+105 at CIN)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 392-370 (51.4%) for +30.31 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4%.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+120 vs. MIN)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1784-1701 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.75 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+105 at KC), MINNESOTA (-142 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1763-2246 (44%) for -195.31 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+100 at CIN), TEXAS (+110 at TB), DETROIT (-192 at CWS), CLEVELAND (+164 at NYY)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3621-3183 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -504.02 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 vs. DET), ST LOUIS (-125 vs. KC), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1028-889 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +13.50 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+105 vs. HOU)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 533-451 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.18 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-166 vs. COL), PITTSBURGH (+105 vs. HOU)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 63-131 skid (-35.24 units, ROI: -18.2%).
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+120 vs. MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 units, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 76-159 (-60.35 units, ROI: -25.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+120 vs. MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO -110 (+26 diff), CLEVELAND +164 (+19), LA ANGELS +114 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -120 (+35 diff), DETROIT -192 (+28), MIAMI -148 (+24), HOUSTON -125 (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHC-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NYM-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) COLORADO (11-50) at (952) MIAMI (23-36)
Trend: COL is 8-23 (-9.36 units) on the ROAD in L2+ seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+124 at MIA)
(953) MILWAUKEE (33-29) at (954) CINCINNATI (30-32)
Trend: Under the total is 24-12-1 (+10.80 units) when CIN is an ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CIN (o/u at 9)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (38-22) at (956) WASHINGTON (28-32)
Trend: WSH is 30-15 (+12.27 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 vs. CHC)
(959) SAN DIEGO (35-24) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (33-28)
Trend: Under the total is 13-5 (+7.50 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-SF (o/u at 7)
(961) NEW YORK-NL (38-23) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (37-24)
Trend: Under the total is 10-2 (+7.80 units) when NYM is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-LAD (o/u at 9.5)
(965) CLEVELAND (32-27) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (37-22)
Trend: NYY is 14-4 (+6.08 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-198 vs CLE)
(967) TEXAS (29-32) at (968) TAMPA BAY (31-29)
Trend: TEX is 6-18 (-11.19 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+110 at TB)
(969) DETROIT (40-22) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (19-42)
Trend: Over the total is 22-10-1 (+11.00 units) in Tigers night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CWS (o/u at 8.5)
(971) BALTIMORE (23-36) at (972) SEATTLE (32-27)
Trend: BAL is 9-20 (-14.49 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-1.5 at SEA)
(973) MINNESOTA (33-27) at (974) ATHLETICS (23-39)
Trend: Over the total is 25-13-3 (+10.70 units) when ATH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(977) PHILADELPHIA (37-23) at (978) TORONTO (31-29)
Trend: PHI is 29-13 (+10.27 units) vs RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-110 at TOR)
(979) KANSAS CITY (32-29) at (980) ST LOUIS (33-27)
Trend: Under the total is 26-10 (+15.00 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-STL (o/u at 8)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #18: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Mon 6/2-Wed 6/4
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 28-10 (73.7%, +16.79 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 44.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+100 at CIN)
Series #19: Minnesota at Athletics, Mon 6/2-Thu 6/5
Trend: Favorites are on an 18-2 (90%, +13.95 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series.
– The ROI on this trend is 69.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-142 at ATH)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, June 6)
