Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 26-60 (-12.25 units, ROI: -14.2%) in their last 86 tries.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+157 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 297-264 but for -76.32 units and a ROI of -13.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. BAL)
* MIAMI momentum after series vs. WSH: 19-15 (55.9%) +10.93 units, ROI: 32.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-102 vs. PHI)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 507-425 for +1.64 units and an ROI of 0.3% so far in the regular season. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -54.25 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, COLORADO, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 96-55 for +28.39 units, and an ROI of 18.8%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+128 at LAD)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 25-28 for -11.41 units. This represents an ROI of -21.5%.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-194 vs. BOS)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with an SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 74-93 for -19.77 units. This represents an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+157 at SEA), HOUSTON (-164 at ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 184-111 for +31.44 units. This represents an ROI of +10.7%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+128 at LAD)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 82-162 for -36.66 units. This represents an ROI of -15%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+158 at WSH)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 55-21 for +8.76 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground nearly every week lately and is just a few heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. LAA)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 55-20 for +9.06 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative and has trended back to normalcy over the last few weeks.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again and riding a seven-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 180-201 for +8.32 units, an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-102 vs. PHI), COLORADO (+158 at WSH), BOSTON (+157 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (+128 at LAD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, now 154-176 for -8.47 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-102 vs PHI), COLORADO (+158 at WSH), BOSTON (+157 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (+128 at LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 87-92 for -1.19 units (ROI -0.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (50-43, +8.94 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – LA DODGERS (-157 vs. SD)
3+ games – PHILADELPHIA (-119 at MIA), BALTIMORE (-106 at TB), SEATTLE (-194 vs. BOS), ATHLETICS (+134 vs. HOU)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 105-79 for +0.32 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-102 vs. PHI), TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. BAL), BOSTON (+157 at SEA), HOUSTON (-164 at ATH)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a slow start, 54-46 for -4.00 units. This is coming off -10.50 units over the last two weeks.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): COL-WSH, SD-LAD
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 185-130 for +26.06 units and a ROI of 8.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-119 at MIA)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 297-264 but for -76.32 units and an ROI of -13.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. BAL)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 337-280 record for +54.48 units and an ROI of 8.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-119 at MIA), COLORADO (+158 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-106 at TB), SAN DIEGO (+128 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1802-1719 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -255.74 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-106 at TB), COLORADO (+158 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-119 at MIA), TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. BAL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1782-2279 (43.9%) for -209.44 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+167 at NYY), BOSTON (+157 at SEA), HOUSTON (-164 at ATH)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3657-3208 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -494.31 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. BAL), SEATTLE (-194 vs. BOS), LA DODGERS (-157 vs. SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 65-133 skid (-34.97 units, ROI: -17.7%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-195 vs. COL)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 units, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 78-161 (-60.08 units, ROI: -25.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-195 vs. COL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 224-227 run (+27.05 units, ROI: 6%).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-195 vs. COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 158-121 (+16.96 units, ROI: 6.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-164 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 203-140 in their last 343 tries (+20.80 units, ROI: 6.1%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+157 at SEA)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 26-60 (-12.25 units, ROI: -14.2%) in their last 86 tries.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+157 at SEA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -119 (+20 diff), TAMPA BAY -115 (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOS-SEA OVER 7 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-ATH UNDER 10 (-0.5), SD-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) PHILADELPHIA (42-29) at (952) MIAMI (28-41)
Trend: Under the total is 20-12-2 (+6.80 units) in Phillies road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 8.5)
(953) COLORADO (14-57) at (954) WASHINGTON (30-41)
Trend: WSH is 5-14 (-11.74 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-195 vs. COL)
(957) LOS ANGELES-AL (33-37) at (958) NEW YORK-AL (42-28)
Trend: NYY is 14-5 (+4.10 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. LAA)
(959) BALTIMORE (30-40) at (960) TAMPA BAY (39-32)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 26-11 (+9.52 units) in night games since the start of the 2023 season
Trend: Zach Eflin is 19-10 (+6.15 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-106 at TB)
(961) BOSTON (37-36) at (962) SEATTLE (36-34)
Trend: SEA is 19-25 (-14.95 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-194 vs. BOS)
(963) HOUSTON (41-30) at (964) ATHLETICS (29-44)
Trend: Over the total is 22-13 (+7.70 units) in Athletics home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-ATH (o/u at 10)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #11: Houston at Athletics, Mon 6/16-Thu 6/19
Trend: The Athletics are 9-26 (25.7%, -9.65 units) in their last 35 games vs. Houston
– The ROI on this trend is -27.6%.
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+134 vs. HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
MIAMI
Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 19-15 (55.9%) +10.93 units, ROI: 32.1%
Next betting opportunity: Monday, June 16 vs. Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-102 vs. PHI)
NY YANKEES
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 18-15 (54.5%) -8.18 units, ROI: -24.8%
Next betting opportunity: Monday, June 16 vs. LA Angels
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. LAA)
