The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB Divisional Series Game 5s. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Stat: Yu Darvish has been solid in the postseason recently (38.2 IP, 2.56 ERA across six appearances since 2020)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (+120 at LAD)

There have been 28 divisional round Game 5s since 2002, 26 of them had favorites (-110 or higher), and those teams have gone just 11-15 SU (-10.4 units. ROI: -40%) & 8-18 (-8.55 units, ROI: -32.9%) on run lines.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, DETROIT

Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-20 SU (+13.33 units, ROI: 25.2%). These follow-up games also tend to go Under on totals, 27-22 (+2.80 units, ROI: 5.7%)
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (-125 at CLE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, DETROIT

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game 5s as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Friday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, DETROIT

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the 2024 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically, and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 7-5 for +3.92 units.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+105 vs. DET)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. *In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 5-4 for +1.82 units.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+105 vs. DET)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles
Road favorites are on an 11-17 SU skid (-10.25 units, ROI: -36.6%)
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-125 at CLE)

Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 66-71 SU (-34.86 units, ROI: -25.4%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD)

Series wins status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 75-74 on run lines (+12.63 units, ROI: 8.5%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. SD), CLEVELAND (+1.5 vs. DET) 

Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same-series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 50-43 SU (+5.46 units, ROI: 5.9%) surge and 51-42 on run lines (+6.47 units, ROI: 7.0%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 30-51 SU (-13.17 units, ROI: -16.3%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+120 at LAD), CLEVELAND (+105 vs. DET) 

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 51-43 SU (+17.23 units, ROI: 18.3%) and 62-32 on run lines (+22.10 units, ROI: 23.5%) in playoff games.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT 

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 68-68, Overs have produced a return of +18.76 units, an ROI of 13.8%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in both games

Divisional Round angles
Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 58-38 SU (+5.99 units, ROI: 6.2%) and 52-44 on run lines (+16.39 units, ROI: 17.1%) since ‘15.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND

Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of run scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 39-26 SU (+15.92 units, ROI: 24.5%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 vs SD)

Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-20 SU (+13.33 units, ROI: 25.2%). These follow-up games also tend to go Under on totals, 27-22 (+2.80 units, ROI: 5.7%)
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (-125 at CLE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6)

There have been 28 divisional round Game 5s since 2002, 26 of them had favorites (-110 or higher) and those teams have gone just 11-15 SU (-10.4 units. ROI: -40%) and 8-18 (-8.55 units, ROI: -32.9%) on run lines
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, DETROIT

Of those 26 Game 5 divisional round favorites, 20 of them have been home favorites and those teams are just 7-13 SU (-11.9 units, ROI: -59.5%).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1624-2075 (43.9%) for -177.19 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+120 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3408-3008 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -484.10 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. SD), CLEVELAND (+105 vs. DET) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(919) SAN DIEGO (97-71) at (920) LA DODGERS (100-66)
Trend: LAD trending Over vs. divisional teams (36-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8) 

(921) DETROIT (90-78) at (922) CLEVELAND (94-71)
Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters (30-12, +16.83 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+105 vs DET)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(919) SAN DIEGO (97-71) at (920) LA DODGERS (100-66)
Trend: Yu Darvish has been solid in the postseason recently (38.2 IP, 2.56 ERA across six appearances since 2020)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (+120 at LAD)

(921) DETROIT (90-78) at (922) CLEVELAND (94-71)
Trend: Tarik Skubal has given up only two earned runs in the last 31 innings pitched (5 games)
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-125 at CLE)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Sunday)

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