The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 are on a brutal skid of 6-26 (-17.4 units, ROI: -54.4%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. NYM)

Trend: NYM trending Over as road underdog (30-16 O/U) this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in NYM-LAD (o/u at 8)

If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 57-23 (71.3%) for +19.3 units since 2000, an ROI of 24.1%!
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-166 vs. CLE)

Trend: Alex Cobb is 2-13 (-13.18 units) in road games in August/September/October in L4 seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+140 at NYY) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle. 
*In the 2024 playoffs, worse bullpen teams on two-game winning streaks are 0-6 for -6.77 units, and those on three-game winning streaks are 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES (-166 vs. CLE)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NONE YET TODAY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 8-5 for +4.92 units.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+140 at NYY)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 6-4 for +2.82 units.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+140 at NYY)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those on two-game winning streaks are 0-6 for -6.77 units, and those on three-game winning streaks are 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY YANKEES (-166 vs. CLE)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable. 

Overall MLB Postseason Trends 

Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 68-71 SU (-32.86 units, ROI: -23.6%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYM), NY YANKEES (-166 vs. CLE)

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home-field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 66-46 SU (+13.54 units, ROI: 12.1%) and 58-54 on run lines (+12.80 units, ROI: 11.4%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 78-74 on run lines (+16.29 units, ROI: 10.7%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-1.5 vs. CLE) 

Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 51-43 SU (+6.46 units, ROI: 6.9%) surge and 52-42 on run lines (+7.83 units, ROI: 8.3%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 31-52 SU (-13.17 units, ROI: -15.9%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+120 at LAD)

Trends based upon regular season records
 In the last 113 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 51-62 SU (-35.05 units, ROI: -31%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYM)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 51-45 SU (+15.08 units, ROI: 15.7%) and 62-34 on run lines (+19.55 units, ROI: 20.4%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS 

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 70-69, Overs have produced a return of +19.66 units, an ROI of 14.1%. Total vig has been heavily shaded towards Unders.

LCS Round Angles
If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 57-23 (71.3%) for +19.3 units since ’00, an ROI of 24.1%!
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-166 vs. CLE)

Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 39-31 (+18.28 units, ROI: 26.1%) since ’18.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+120 at LAD), CLEVELAND (+140 at NYY)

Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, there record has been 38-57 SU (-23.24 units, ROI: -24.5%).
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+120 at LAD)

The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, the beware of teams following up a same series WIN in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 23-33 SU (-15.25 units, ROI: -27.2%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs NYM)

Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 12-5 SU (+5.67 units, ROI: 33.4%) surge since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-166 vs. CLE)

Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 14-6 SU (+9.15 units, ROI: 45.8%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYM)

Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 7-14 SU (-9.55 units, ROI: -45.5%) and 5-16 (-12.5, ROI: -59.5%) on run lines since 2013
System Match (FADE): NY METS

Road/neutral teams down 0-1 in an LCS series have gone just 4-12 SU (-9.85 units, ROI: -61.6%) since 2008.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+120 at LAD)

Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 are on a brutal skid of 6-26 (-17.4 units, ROI: -54.4%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs. NYM)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1694-1595 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -213.95 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYM)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3410-3008 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -482.10 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYM) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +140 (+13 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.3 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-NYY UNDER 7.5 (-0.3 diff) 

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(953) CLEVELAND (95-71) at (954) NEW YORK-AL (97-69)
Trend: CLE slight Under on the road (31-46 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: CLE good vs. LH starters (31-12, +17.83 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+140 at NYY)

Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (76-45, +8.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-166 vs CLE)

Trend: NYY has a 16-7 record vs CLE in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-166 vs CLE) 

(955) NEW YORK-NL (94-76) at (956) LOS ANGELES-NL (102-66)
Trend: NYM trending Over as road underdog (30-16 O/U) this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

Trend: LAD trending Over vs. NL teams (74-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

Trend: LAD solid vs. LH starters (36-17, +5.01 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-142 vs. NYM) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(953) CLEVELAND (95-71) at (954) NEW YORK-AL (97-69)

Trend: Alex Cobb is 7-15 (-5.00 units) as a NIGHT +100 underdog or worse in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+140 at NYY)

Trend: Alex Cobb is 2-13 (-13.18 units) in ROAD games in August/September/October in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+140 at NYY)

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