The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 15, 2024, and Wednesday, October 16. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for Tuesday and Wednesday’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Gerrit Cole is 32-6 (+16.40 units) vs. AL Central teams in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

All but two of the 14 LCS Game 2 favorites of -150 or more have won their games since 2000 (+8.80 units, ROI: 62.9%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

Trend: LA Dodgers have a 5-12 record as a ROAD UNDERDOG this season
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 79-74 on run lines (+17.59 units, ROI: 11.5%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+1.5 vs. LAD)

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 32-52 SU (-11.87 units, ROI: -14.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY), LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Tuesday and Wednesday’s games as of 11 a.m. ET Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 UNITS and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettors look for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1 1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors: they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-112 vs. LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE), NY METS (-112 vs. LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long

A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
* In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 8-6 for +3.92 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY), LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick-’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
* In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 6-5 for +1.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
* In the ’24 playoffs, those on two-game winning streaks are 1-6 for -5.77 units, and those on three-game winning streaks are 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System Matches: 3-games — FADE NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 69-72 SU (-33.41 units, ROI: -23.7%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE), NY METS (-112 vs. LAD)

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, home-field advantage has meant quite a lot,as these hosts are 66-47 SU (+11.99 units, ROI: 10.6%) and 58-55 on run lines (+11.80 units, ROI: 10.4%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES

Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 79-74 on run lines (+17.59 units, ROI: 11.5%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+1.5 vs. LAD)

Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 32-52 SU (-11.87 units, ROI: -14.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY), LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Trends based on regular-season records
In the last 114 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular-season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 51-63 SU (-36.60 units, ROI: -32.1%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 52-45 SU (+16.48 units, ROI: 17%) and 63-34 on run lines (+20.55 units, ROI: 21.2%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 71-70, Overs have produced a return of +19.66 units, an ROI of 13.9%. Total vig has been heavily shaded toward Unders.

LCS Round Angles
If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 58-24 (71.3%) for +18.75 units since 2000, an ROI of 22.9%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, though, going 40-32 (+18.58 units, ROI: 25.8%) since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY), LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 39-57 SU (-21.94 units, ROI: -22.9%).
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY)

The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same-series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 23-34 SU (-16.80 units, ROI: -29.5%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-112 vs. LAD)

Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 14-7 SU (+7.60 units, ROI: 36.2%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-14 SU (-8.25 units, ROI: -37.5%) and 6-16 (-11.50 units, ROI: -52.3%) on run lines since 2013
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND

Road/neutral teams down 0-1 in an LCS series have gone just 5-12 SU (-8.55 units, ROI: -50.3%) since 2008.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY)

All but two of 14 LCS Game 2 favorites of -150 or more have won their games since 2000 (+8.80 units, ROI: 62.9%).
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last four-plus seasons. These road teams are just 1624-2076 (43.9%) for -178.19 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (+145 at NYY)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3410-3009 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -483.65 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE), NY METS (-112 vs. LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Wednesday’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LA DODGERS-NY METS OVER 7.5 (+0.9 diff)

MLB Team Situational Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(957) CLEVELAND (95-72) at (958) NEW YORK-AL (98-69)
Trend: CLE slight Under on the ROAD (31-47 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (77-45, +9.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

Trend: NYY has a 17-7 record vs. CLE in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-175 vs. CLE)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (102-67) at (960) NEW YORK-NL (95-76)
Trend: LAD trending Over vs. NL teams (75-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: LAD has a 5-12 record as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-108 at NYM)

Trend: NYM good at night (62-38, +22.35 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-112 vs. LAD)

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