The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the ALCS and NLCS games this weekend. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: CLE is 20-4 (+16.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

Teams looking to close out series in Game 5 have typically failed to do so, going 5-11 SU (-6.30 units, ROI: -39.4%) & 4-12 (-10.2 units, ROI: -63.8%) on run lines in their last 16 tries
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES 

Trend: Over the total is 12-4-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 33-53 SU (-11.77 units, ROI: -13.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY), NY METS (+124 at LAD) 

Game 6 has belonged to home teams since 2012, as they have gone 10-2 outright (+8.03 units, ROI: 66.9%) and on run lines (+10.35 units, ROI: 86.3%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Saturday’s game as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 9-8 for +2.92 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 7-6 for +1.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY) 

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends 

Line Angles
Road favorites are on a 14-19 SU skid (-9.70 units, ROI: -29.4%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE)

Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 70-72 SU (-32.41 units, ROI: -22.8%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM)

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 51-57 SU (-20.98 units, ROI: -19.4%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM) 

Series wins status
For teams leading in a series, HOME FIELD advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 67-47 SU (+12.99 units, ROI: 11.4%) and 59-55 on run lines (+13.10 units, ROI: 11.5%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 52-45 SU (+4.61 units, ROI: 4.8%) surge and 53-44 on run lines (+7.13 units, ROI: 7.4%) since 2014.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, NY METS

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 33-53 SU (-11.77 units, ROI: -13.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 vs NYY), NY METS (+124 at LAD)

Trends based upon regular season records
 In the last 117 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 53-64 SU (-35.90 units, ROI: -30.7%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-148 vs NYM)

 In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 53-47 SU (+15.50 units, ROI: 15.5%) and 64-36 on run lines (+18.20 units, ROI: 18.2%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 77-70, Overs have produced a return of +25.71 units, an ROI of 17.5%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.

LCS Round Angles
If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 59-24 (71%) for +19.75 units since 2000, an ROI of 23.8%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM)

Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately though, going 42-36 (+16.60 units, ROI: 21.3%) since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY), NY METS (+124 at LAD)

The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, the beware of teams following up a same series WIN in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 24-38 SU (-20.28 units, ROI: -32.7%) since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE), NY METS (+124 at LAD)

Teams looking to close out series in Game 5 have typically failed to do so, going 5-11 SU (-6.30 units, ROI: -39.4%) and 4-12 (-10.2 units, ROI: -63.8%) on run lines in their last 16 tries
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES

Game 6 has belonged to home teams since 2012, as they have gone 10-2 outright (+8.03 units, ROI: 66.9%) and on run lines (+10.35 units, ROI: 86.3%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Game 6 favorites have gone just 9-17 SU (-16.12 units, ROI: -62%) since ’03 in the LCS round
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1694-1597 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -216.80 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (+124 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3411-3011 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -484.73 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY), LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.3 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.3)

Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. 

(969) NEW YORK-AL (100-70) at (970) CLEVELAND (96-74)
Trend: NYY has a 19-8 record vs. CLE in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE)

Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (79-45, +11.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-122 at CLE)

Trend: CLE good at HOME (53-32, +7.88 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

Trend: Over the total is 12-4-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5) 

(971) NEW YORK-NL (96-78) at (972) LOS ANGELES-NL (104-68)
Trend: LAD trending Over v.s NL teams (78-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

Trend: LAD better bet vs. LH starters (37-19, +3.16 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-148 vs. NYM)

Trend: NYM good at night (63-40, +21.37 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+124 at LAD) 

Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.

(969) NEW YORK-AL (100-70) at (970) CLEVELAND (96-74)
Trend: CLE is 20-4 (+16.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+102 vs. NYY)

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