The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 2, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Sean Manaea is 0-3 (7.2 IP, 15.26 ERA, 13 HA) in three postseason appearances in his career
System Match: FADE NY METS (-102 at MIL)

Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 7-1 SU (+7.03 units, ROI: 87.9%) and 6-2 (+4.6 units, ROI: 57.5%) on run lines in Game 2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, NY METS, SAN DIEGO 

Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on an 18-5 SU (+13.24 units, ROI: 57.6%) surge in the next game since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY

Trend: Under the total is 10-3 in the last 12 of the head-to-head series between Atlanta and San Diego
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record, for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 2-0 for +2.44 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL), ATLANTA (-102 at SD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON (-180 vs. DET), BALTIMORE (-155 vs. KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, NY METS, SAN DIEGO 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 2-1 for +1.44 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+150 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL), ATLANTA (-102 at SD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 2-0 for +2.44 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL), ATLANTA (-102 at SD) 

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs profitable. 

Line Angles

–  Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 59-65 SU (-32.88 units, ROI: -26.5%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO 

Coming off wins/losses

–   Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 46-53 SU (-20.8 units, ROI: -21%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE 

–  Home teams coming off a win in a series game have been a better option, 65-51 SU (+0.6 units, ROI: 0.5%) in that same time span.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN DIEGO 

Series wins status

–  For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 64-41 SU (+17.99 units, ROI: 17.1%) and 56-49 on run lines (+15.9 units, ROI: 15.1%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO 

– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 34-38 SU (-22.45 units, ROI: -31.2%) since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, MILWAUKEE 

Stats from last game trends

–  Teams that are favored in a MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 40-51 SU (-31.15 units, ROI: -34.2%) and 28-63 on run lines (-26.15 units, ROI: -28.7%) since 2012.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, BALTIMORE

– Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just 1 or 2 runs are on an 18-5 SU (+13.24 units, ROI: 57.6%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY

– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 49-42 SU (+5.46 units, ROI: 6%) surge and 51-40 on run lines (+9.45 units, ROI: +10.4%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 28-47 SU (-11.77 units, ROI: -15.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA 

Trends based upon regular season records

–  In the last four playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 42-34 SU (+16.34 units, ROI: 21.5%) and 48-28 on run lines (+13.10 units, ROI: 17.2%) in playoff games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, NY METS, ATLANTA 

Totals angles

–  The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 57-59, Overs have produced a return of +17.33 units, a ROI of 14.9%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games 

Wild Card Round Angles

2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series

–   Wild Card visitors priced at -110 to +160 underdogs are on a 18-14 SU (+10.26 units, ROI: 32.1%) and 22-10 RL (+5.9 units, ROI: 18.4%) surge since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, NY METS, ATLANTA

–  Wild Card totals have gone 32-17 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +13.15 units, or an ROI of 26.8%.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in all 4 games

– Since the wildcard playoffs turned into series in 2022, the team that has won Game 1 in the series has gone 7-1 SU (+7.03 units, ROI: 87.9%) and 6-2 (+4.6 units, ROI: 57.5%) on run lines in Game 2.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, NY METS, SAN DIEGO 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1620-2070 (43.9%) for -176.28 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL), ATLANTA (-102 at SD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT +150 (+25 diff), KANSAS CITY +130 (+20 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(915) DETROIT (87-76) at (916) HOUSTON (88-74)
Trend: HOU not as good during the day (28-30, -13.33 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-180 vs. DET) 

(917) KANSAS CITY (87-76) at (918) BALTIMORE (91-72)
Trend: KC slight Under during the day (22-35 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: BAL is 9-4 in the series with KC in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-155 vs. KC) 

(919) NEW YORK-NL (90-73) at (920) MILWAUKEE (93-70)
Trend: NYM better at night (59-36, +21.30 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-102 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is 1-10 in the last 11 playoff games
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-118 vs. NYM)

Trend: Milwaukee has a 12-3 record in the last 15 games vs NY Mets
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-118 vs. NYM) 

(921) ATLANTA (89-74) at (922) SAN DIEGO (94-69)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. RH starters (38-72 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5)

Trend: UNDER the total is 10-3 in the last 12 of the series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(917) KANSAS CITY (87-76) at (918) BALTIMORE (91-72)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 5-14 (-11.06 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+130 at BAL) 

(919) NEW YORK-NL (90-73) at (920) MILWAUKEE (93-70)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 0-3 (7.2 IP, 15.26 ERA, 13 HA) in three postseason appearances in his career
System Match: FADE NY METS (-102 at MIL) 

(921) ATLANTA (89-74) at (922) SAN DIEGO (94-69)
Trend: ATL is 19-7 (+9.45 units) in road games starts by Max Fried in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-102 at SD)

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