Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Zach Wheeler is 15-3 (+9.75 units) as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. NYM)
Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 30-17 SU (+7.17 units, ROI: 15.3%) surge. However, they were 1-3 last year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS
Trend: Gerrit Cole is 30-6 (+14.40 units) vs. AL Central teams in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-205 vs KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 82-94 (-47.77 units, ROI: -27.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-135 vs. SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. DET), LA DODGERS (-135 vs. SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible PLAYOFF season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games, so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! In ’24, these teams again lost significant money, 136-76, but for -33.75 units and a ROI of -15.9%.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, those on two-game winning streaks are 0-1 for -1.42 units, and those on three-game winning streaks are 0-1 for -1.48 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE DETROIT (+124 at CLE), FADE SAN DIEGO (+114 at LAD)
3-games – FADE KANSAS CITY (+170 at NYY)
MLB Betting Trends & Systems for the Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, as they are just 61-68 SU (-35.41 units, ROI: -27.4%)
System Match (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. DET), LA DODGERS (-135 vs. SD)
Series wins status
Home field has proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 70-71 on run lines (+9.49 units, ROI: 6.7%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 108 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 47-61 SU (-37.5 units, ROI: -34.7%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-205 vs. KC)
In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 45-37 SU (+16.33 units, ROI: 19.9%) and 52-30 on run lines (+14.12 units, ROI: 17.2%) in playoff games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY
Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 59-62, Overs have produced a return of +16.25 units, an ROI of 13.4%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in all 4 games
Divisional Round Angles
Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 51-31 SU (+8.36 units, ROI: 10.2%) and 45-37 on run lines (+15.35 units, ROI: 18.7%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS
Game 1 home favorites in the divisional round are on a 30-17 SU (+7.17 units, ROI: 15.3%) surge, however they were 1-3 last year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1621-2071 (43.9%) for -176.04 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+170 at NYY)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3404-3003 (53.1%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -480.73 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. NYM), NY YANKEES (-205 vs. KC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 82-94 (-47.77 units, ROI: -27.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-135 vs SD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +154 (+20 diff), KANSAS CITY +170 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -135 (+17 diff)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (91-74) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (95-67)
Trend: NYM worse during the day (31-37, -13.13 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (+154 at PHI)
(953) DETROIT (88-76) at (954) CLEVELAND (92-69)
Trend: CLE good at home (50-30, +6.88 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs DET)
(955) KANSAS CITY (88-76) at (956) NEW YORK-AL (94-68)
Trend: KC more Under on the road (31-47 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(957) SAN DIEGO (95-69) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (98-64)
Trend: LAD slight Over vs. divisional opponents (33-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) NEW YORK-NL (91-74) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (95-67)
Trend: Zach Wheeler is 15-3 (+9.75 units) as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in L6 seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. NYM)
Trend: PHI is 22-7 (+10.87 units) in last 29 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs. NYM)
(955) KANSAS CITY (88-76) at (956) NEW YORK-AL (94-68)
Trend: Gerrit Cole is 30-6 (+14.40 units) vs AL Central teams in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-205 vs. KC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
