The following MLB betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Jose Quintana is 18-4 (+12.80 units) as a shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) in the L6 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-122 vs STL) 

Trend: UNDER the total is 26-8 (+17.20 units) in Rangers’ HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TEX (o/u at 7.5) 

* Since the start of the ’24 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 282-181 for +61.16 units, a ROI of 13.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+112 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-163 vs LAA), TAMPA BAY (+113 at NYM) 

* HOME FAVORITES coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 327-164 (66.6%) for +43.77 units and a R.O.I. of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-186 vs CIN)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the ’25 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 493-411 for +7.18 units and a ROI of 0.8% so far in the regular season. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettors now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -53 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO 

BACK teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the ’25 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 93-54 for +26.16 units, and a ROI of 17.8%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the ’24 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+112 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-163 vs LAA), TAMPA BAY (+113 at NYM)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 23-26 for -10.41 units. This represents a ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-165 vs TOR)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 72-90 for -20.77 units. This represents an ROI of -12.8%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+135 at PHI)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 180-107 for +33.82 units. This represents an ROI of +11.8%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-187 vs CIN), TEXAS (-348 vs CWS), ATLANTA (-361 vs COL), TAMPA BAY (+113 at NYM), MINNESOTA (-105 at HOU), HOUSTON (-115 vs MIN), NY YANKEES (-173 at BOS)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 79-159 for -38.47 units. This represents an ROI of -16.2%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-137 vs MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+269 at TEX), ATHLETICS (+137 at KC), COLORADO (+278 at ATL)

FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 55-20 for +10.68 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground nearly every week lately and is just a few heavilyy priced favorite losses from going negative.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-348 vs CWS) 

BACK big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 82-24 for +21.09 units, a ROI of 19.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-239 vs PIT), ATLANTA (-361 vs COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in ’25. We are well in the black again and riding a seven-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 178-197 for +10.08 units, a ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+112 at WSH), TORONTO (+135 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+113 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (+143 at AZ), CLEVELAND (+112 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+151 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full ’24 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 152-173 for -7.71 units after winning around 3.25 units over the last week-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+112 at WSH), TORONTO (+135 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (+113 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (+143 at AZ), CLEVELAND (+112 at SEA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 84-92 for -4.42 units (ROI -2.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (46-42, +5.37 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – PHILADELPHIA (-165 vs TOR)
3+ games – BOSTON (+141 vs NYY), ARIZONA (-175 vs SD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%. For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25. So far, it is 102-78 for +0.93 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-115 vs MIN) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For ’25, it is off to a slow start, 53-44 for -1.98 units. This coming off -7.21 units last week, our worst of the season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-164 vs ATH)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the ’23 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the’23 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 full-season results, along with some notes about the early ’25 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 , ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 UNITS – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 UNITS – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 UNITS, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 UNITS and a ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 UNITS and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettors afloat considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 UNITS and a ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS, ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and a ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, SEATTLE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for UNDER the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the ‘23 season for +26.1 units and a ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAA-BAL, SD-AZ 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1797-1717 (51.1%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -258.16 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, ATLANTA, DETROIT 

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1780-2269 (44%) for -202.65 units and a R.O.I. of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TORONTO, LA ANGELS, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND 

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3648-3204 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -497.34 units and a R.O.I. of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, NY METS, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, SEATTLE 

HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1035-896 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.83 units for backers and a R.O.I. of 0.7%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-186 vs SF) 

Watch for HOME TEAMS that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 535-457 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +14.04 units, for a R.O.I. of 1.4%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+141 vs NYY) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favoriites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 327-164 (66.6%) for +43.77 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-186 vs CIN) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 302-264 (53.4%) for +27.66 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-132 vs MIA) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the ’23 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 223-222 run (+33.01 units, ROI: 7.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-132 vs MIA), ST LOUIS (+101 at MIL), KANSAS CITY (-164 vs ATH) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 105-116 (-54.47 units, ROI: -24.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-172 vs SD) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +269 (+75 diff), COLORADO +274 (+58), SAN DIEGO +141 (+41), PITTSBURGH +194 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -120 (+25 diff), MILWAUKEE -122 (+21), KANSAS CITY -164 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-BOS OVER 8.5 (+1.1), TB-NYM OVER 7 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SD-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) PITTSBURGH (29-42) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (42-28)
Trend: UNDER the total is 21-10-2 (+10.00 units) in Pirates’ ROAD games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 7) 

(955) ST LOUIS (36-34) at (956) MILWAUKEE (38-33)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 18-4 (+12.80 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the L6 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-122 vs STL) 

(959) SAN DIEGO (38-30) at (960) ARIZONA (35-34)
Trend: AZ is 13-5 (+6.07 units) in L18 Home Divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-175 vs SD) 

(965) CHICAGO-AL (23-47) at (966) TEXAS (34-36)
Trend: UNDER the total is 26-8 (+17.20 units) in Rangers’ HOME games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TEX (o/u at 7.5) 

(967) ATHLETICS (27-44) at (968) KANSAS CITY (34-36)
Trend: OVER the total is 30-16-3 (+12.40 units) when ATH is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATH-KC (o/u at 9.5) 

(969) MINNESOTA (36-33) at (970) HOUSTON (39-30)
Trend: HOU is 5-10 (-7.45 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown in his career
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-115 vs MIN) 

(973) CLEVELAND (35-33) at (974) SEATTLE (34-34)
Trend: CLE is 26-7 (+18.98 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee since the start of the ’23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (*if they fall into this line range, +112 currently*)

Trend: SEA is 10-5 (+3.68 units) as a short HOME favorite (between -111 and -140) with starter George Kirby in L3 seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-137 vs CLE) 

(975) CINCINNATI (35-35) at (976) DETROIT (46-25)
Trend: DET is 24-9 (+12.61 units) in DAY games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-186 vs CIN)

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Thu 6/12-Sun 6/15
Trend: PITTSBURGH is 10-20 (33.3%, -7.49 units) in their L30 games at Chicago Cubs
–     The R.O.I. on this trend is -25%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+194 at CHC)

Trend: OVER the total is on a 22-10-1 (68.8%, +11.07 units) run in the Pirates-Cubs head-to-head series since September ’22.
–     The R.O.I. on this trend is 34.6%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-CHC (o/u at 7)

Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Fri 6/13-Sun 6/15
Trend: ATLANTA has won 19 of L24 games against Colorado (79.2%, +6.48 units)
–     The R.O.I. on this trend is 27%
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-355 vs COL) 

Series #22: Chicago White Sox at Texas, Fri 6/13-Sun 6/15
Trend: TEXAS is 13-2 (86.7%, +9.56 units) in their L15 games versus the Chicago White Sox.
–     The R.O.I. on this trend is 63.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-348 vs CWS)

Series #25: LA Angels at Baltimore, Fri 6/13-Sun 6/15
Trend: BALTIMORE has won 20 of L26 games (76.9%, +14.43 units) against LA Angels
–     The R.O.I. on this trend is 55.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-163 vs LAA)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, June 16)

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