The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: ATL is 10-2 (+6.55 units) in the last four seasons against Washington, with Max Fried as a starter.
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-180 at WSH)

Trend: NYM not as good during the DAY (26-34, -15.61 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (-125 at TOR) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 487-408 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.02 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs KC) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 168-208 for -41.47 units (-11% ROI). The three-game teams are 82-86 for -3.75 units (-2.2% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (-155 vs. TEX), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs. TB)
3-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (-162 vs MIA), FADE CINCINNATI (+120 at STL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs. TB), HOUSTON (-238 vs. OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+120 at BOS), ST LOUIS (-142 vs. CIN), SAN DIEGO (-110 at SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 UNITS and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): CLEVELAND (-230 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, ARIZONA, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET TODAY 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
 In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 113-63 for -27.25 units and an ROI of -15.5%.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-238 vs. OAK), DETROIT (-192 vs. COL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
 A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/10, the record of this angle in 2024 is in negative territory at 101-40 for -8.44 units (4 huge losses this past week).
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-238 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 321-396 record for -25.46 units (ROI -3.6%). This is below standards historically, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+136 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF), BALTIMORE (+120 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+170 at MIN), TEXAS (+130 at AZ), TAMPA BAY (+180 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (-110 at SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (+142 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 286-309 record for +5.33 units (ROI 0.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+136 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF), BALTIMORE (+120 at BOS), TEXAS (+130 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (-110 at SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (+142 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 168-208 for -41.47 units (-11% ROI). The three-game teams are 82-86 for -3.75 units (-2.2% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (-155 vs. TEX), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs. TB)
3-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (-162 vs. MIA), FADE CINCINNATI (+120 at STL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 361-340 (51.5%) for +31.49 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+150 vs. ATL) 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1667-1569 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -207.37 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs. TB), DETROIT (-185 vs. COL), ATLANTA (-180 at WSH), MINNESOTA (-205 vs. LAA) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1586-2026 (43.9%) for -175.04 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+154 at DET), NY METS (-125 at TOR), TEXAS (+130 at AZ)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3363-2956 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -457.93 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, PITTSBURGH, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 944-823 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +7.19 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. KC), WASHINGTON (+150 vs. ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (-142 vs. MIL) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 487-408 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.02 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-148 vs. KC) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +136 (+25 diff), LA ANGELS +170 (+28 diff), OAKLAND +195 (+25 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -238 (+20 diff), NY YANKEES -148 (+25 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-STL OVER 8 (+0.5), NYM-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.6), LAA-MIN UNDER 9 (-0.5) 

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily. 

(951) MIAMI (54-91) at (952) PITTSBURGH (69-76)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (10-40 O/U)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+136 at PIT) 

(957) MILWAUKEE (83-61) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (71-74)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. LH starters (18-22, -10.45 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF) 

(959) CHICAGO-NL (75-70) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (86-59)
Trend: LAD slight Over at night (60-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9) 

(961) CLEVELAND (83-62) at (962) CHICAGO-AL (33-113)
Trend: CWS slight Under at home (29-42 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8) 

(963) KANSAS CITY (80-66) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (83-62)
Trend: NYY worse bet vs. LH starters (18-23, -23.11 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-148 vs. KC)

(965) BALTIMORE (83-63) at (966) BOSTON (73-72)
Trend: BOS not as good at home (34-40, -18.15 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-142 vs. BAL) 

(967) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-85) at (968) MINNESOTA (77-68)
Trend: LAA bad vs. AL Central/East (18-39, -15.56 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+170 at MIN) 

(971) NEW YORK-NL (79-66) at (972) TORONTO (69-77)
Trend: NYM not as good during the DAY (26-34, -15.61 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (-125 at TOR) 

(973) TEXAS (70-75) at (974) ARIZONA (81-64)
Trend: AZ trending Over vs. AL teams (28-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5) 

(975) COLORADO (54-91) at (976) DETROIT (74-71)
Trend: COL worse on the road (22-54, -13.71 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+154 at DET) 

(979) SAN DIEGO (82-64) at (980) SEATTLE (73-72)
Trend: SEA more Under at home (24-42 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years. 

(953) ATLANTA (79-66) at (954) WASHINGTON (64-80)
Trend: ATL is 10-2 (+6.55 units) in the last four seasons against Washington with Max Fried as the starter
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-180 at WSH) 

(957) MILWAUKEE (83-61) at (958) SAN FRANCISCO (71-74)
Trend: MIL is very good in the -120 to +135 line range (20-5, +16.53 units) with starter Colin Rea in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+120 at SF) 

(965) BALTIMORE (83-63) at (966) BOSTON (73-72)
Trend: BAL is 13-2 (+11.84 units) in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+120 at BOS) 

Series #1: Oakland at Houston, Tue 9/10 – Thu 9/12
Trend: Oakland is 8-23 (23.3%, -8.55 units) in its last 31 games vs. Houston.
–  The ROI on this trend is -25.8%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+195 at HOU) 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/12)

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