The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, September 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

BAL letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 10-21 (32.3%) -10.60 units, ROI: -34.2%
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-148 at DET)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 306-153 (66.7%) for +40.50 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-115 vs. MIL)

Trend: PHI is 24-4 (+17.45 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs. NYM)

Trend: NYY is 9-2 (+5.83 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in his career
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs. BOS)

Trend: ATL heavy Under at home (21-48 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 286-314 record for +0.33 units (ROI 0.06%) (bad day on 9/11, -5.00 units). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+136 at PHI), MIAMI (+124 at WSH), ATLANTA (-108 vs. LAD), MILWAUKEE (+100 at AZ), DETROIT (+110 vs. BAL), SEATTLE (+110 vs. TEX), KANSAS CITY (+100 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+114 at TOR) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (-135 vs. STL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-205 at LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+102 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+114 at TOR), MINNESOTA (-218 vs. CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.

System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-112 vs. MIL) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units & a ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHC-COL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 116-65 for -29.60 units and a ROI of -16.4%.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-205 at LAA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 322-403 record for -30.86 units (ROI -4.3%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+136 at PHI), MIAMI (+124 at WSH), ATLANTA (-108 vs. LAD), MILWAUKEE (+100 at AZ), DETROIT (+110 vs. BAL), SEATTLE (+110 vs. TEX), KANSAS CITY (+100 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+114 at TOR), CINCINNATI (+180 at MIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 286-314 record for +0.33 units (ROI 0.06%) (bad day on 9/11, -5.00 units). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+136 at PHI), MIAMI (+124 at WSH), ATLANTA (-108 vs. LAD), MILWAUKEE (+100 at AZ), DETROIT (+110 vs. BAL), SEATTLE (+110 vs. TEX), KANSAS CITY (+100 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+114 at TOR)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 170-209 for -40.47 units (-10.7% ROI). The three-game teams are 83-87 for -3.75 units (-2.2% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MINNESOTA (-218 vs. CIN)
3+ games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs. NYM), FADE ARIZONA (-120 vs. MIL), FADE PITTSBURGH (-120 vs. KC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1670-1571 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -207.07 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-112 vs. MIL), LA DODGERS (-112 at ATL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1590-2029 (43.9%) for -173.24 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+136 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (-115 at SF), CINCINNATI (+180 at MIN) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3368-2962 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -462.80 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-112 vs. MIL), MINNESOTA (-218 vs. CIN)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 947-823 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +10.61 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+124 vs. BAL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 488-408 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.02 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-135 vs. STL) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 306-153 (66.7%) for +40.50 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-112 vs. MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY +150 (+15 diff), CINCINNATI +180 (+40 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -142 (+20 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-PHI UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), KC-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) NEW YORK-NL (80-66) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (88-58)
Trend: PHI better at home (50-24, +9.90 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs NYM) 

(953) MIAMI (55-92) at (954) WASHINGTON (65-81)
Trend: MIA bad vs. LH starters (11-41, -28.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+124 at WSH) 

(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (87-59) at (956) ATLANTA (79-67)
Trend: ATL heavy UNDER at HOME (21-48 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5) 

(959) MILWAUKEE (84-62) at (960) ARIZONA (82-64)
Trend: MIL worse vs. LH starters (18-23, -11.45 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-105 at AZ) 

(963) BALTIMORE (83-64) at (964) DETROIT (75-72)
Trend: BAL trending OVER vs AL Central/West (33-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8) 

(965) BOSTON (74-73) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (85-62)
Trend: BOS slight OVER on the ROAD (40-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5) 

(967) TAMPA BAY (72-75) at (968) CLEVELAND (84-63)
Trend: CLE good vs AL East/West (36-22, +13.05 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-180 vs TB) 

(969) OAKLAND (64-83) at (970) CHICAGO-AL (33-114)
Trend: OAK is 11-6 as a favorite this season
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (-135 at CWS)

(973) TEXAS (71-76) at (974) SEATTLE (74-73)
Trend: UNDER the total is 8-4-1 this season when SEA is a HOME underdog
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7) 

(977) ST LOUIS (74-72) at (978) TORONTO (69-78)
Trend: STL slight OVER in interleague play this season (24-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5) 

(979) CINCINNATI (71-77) at (980) MINNESOTA (78-68)
Trend: MIN not as good vs NL teams this season (16-24, -13.28 units)
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-218 vs CIN) 

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) NEW YORK-NL (80-66) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (88-58)
Trend: PHI is 24-4 (+17.45 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs. NYM)

Trend: PHI is 3-10 (-8.23 units) in the last 13 vs. NY Mets with starter Aaron Nola
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-162 vs. NYM) 

(953) MIAMI (55-92) at (954) WASHINGTON (65-81)
Trend: MIA is 13-7 (+7.97 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+124 at WSH) 

(957) CHICAGO-NL (75-71) at (958) COLORADO (55-92)
Trend: COL is 3-9 (-6.51 units) vs. NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+124 vs. CHC) 

(959) MILWAUKEE (84-62) at (960) ARIZONA (82-64)
Trend: MIL is 6-11 (-13.43 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-108 at AZ) 

(961) SAN DIEGO (82-65) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (72-75)
Trend: SF is 14-3 (+9.20 units) at home as a favorite vs Divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (*if they become a favorite vs SD, -105 currently) 

(963) BALTIMORE (83-64) at (964) DETROIT (75-72)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 23-9 (+8.77 units) in night games in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 at DET) 

(965) BOSTON (74-73) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (85-62)
Trend: NYY is 7-11 (-4.93 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Clarke Schmidt in his career
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-162 vs. BOS)

Trend: NYY is 9-2 (+5.83 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in his career
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs. BOS) 

(977) ST LOUIS (74-72) at (978) TORONTO (69-78)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 17-8 (+9.40 units) in the -115 to +110 line range
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (*if they fall into this line range, +114 currently)

Trend: Kevin Gausman is 11-19 (-19.34 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs. STL)

Series #24: Baltimore at Detroit, Fri 9/13-Sun 9/15
Trend: Favorites are 14-3 (82.4%, +8.60 units) in the last 17 games in the BAL-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 50.6%
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 at DET)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

BALTIMORE 
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 10-21 (32.3%) -10.60 units, ROI: -34.2%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 9/13 at Detroit
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-148 at DET)

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