The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Jose Berrios is 25-5 (+16.94 units) in home day games in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-135 vs. STL)

Trend: WSH is 10-1 (+8.05 units) as a home favorite of -140 or more vs. Divisional opponents with Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-148 vs. MIA) 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 362-340 (51.6%) for +32.91 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.7%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-108 vs. NYM)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 170-210 for -42.92 units (-11.3% ROI). The three-game teams are 83-90 for -7.72 units (-4.5% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+124 vs CHC), FADE TAMPA BAY (+120 at CLE) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (-112 at PHI), LA DODGERS (+102 at ATL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, TORONTO, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-135 vs. STL), ARIZONA (-155 vs. MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYM-PHI, CHC-COL 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 117-66 for -30.52 units and an ROI of -16.7%.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-198 vs. BOS) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
 A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 329-405 record for -24.18 units (ROI -3.3%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (+130 at AZ), DETROIT (+124 vs. BAL), ST LOUIS (+114 at TOR), CINCINNATI (+130 at MIN)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 292-316 record for +5.01 units (ROI 0.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (+130 at AZ), DETROIT (+124 vs. BAL), ST LOUIS (+114 at TOR), CINCINNATI (+130 at MIN)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 170-210 for -42.92 units (-11.3% ROI). The three-game teams are 83-90 for -7.72 units (-4.5% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+124 vs. CHC), FADE TAMPA BAY (+120 at CLE)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 362-340 (51.6%) for +32.91 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.7%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-108 vs. NYM)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1670-1573 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -209.49 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-112 at PHI), COLORADO (+124 vs. CHC) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1592-2030 (44%) for -171.24 units and an ROI of -4.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, LA DODGERS, OAKLAND, MILWAUKEE

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3368-2964 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -466.55 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, COLORADO, SEATTLE

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 948-823 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.75 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA ANGELS, PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO 

Watch for home team that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 489-408 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.02 units, for an ROI of 3.0%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 vs. OAK) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 180-177 run (+32.47 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 vs. OAK)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 150-167 (+5.59 units, ROI: 1.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+140 vs. OAK)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +124 (+25 diff), PHILADELPHIA -108 (+21 diff), MILWAUKEE +130 (+35 diff), TAMPA BAY +120 (+20 diff), DETROIT +124 (+22 diff), PITTSBURGH -102 (+19 diff), CINCINNATI +130 (+18 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), NYM-PHI UNDER 9 (-0.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) MIAMI (55-93) at (902) WASHINGTON (66-81)
Trend: WSH is 10-1 (+8.05 units) as a home favorite of -140 or more vs. Divisional opponents with Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-148 vs. MIA) 

(909) CHICAGO-NL (75-72) at (910) COLORADO (56-92)
Trend: CHC is 14-4 (+7.83 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-148 at COL)

(911) SAN DIEGO (83-65) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (72-76)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 8-3 (+4.10 units) in the last 11 vs. San Francisco
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-155 at SF) 

(921) HOUSTON (79-68) at (922) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-87)
Trend: HOU is 4-13 (-18.91 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-175 at LAA)

Trend: Tyler Anderson is 19-8 (+14.66 units) vs. AL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+145 vs. HOU)

(923) TEXAS (71-77) at (924) SEATTLE (75-73)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 12-8 (+6.03 units) as an underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+136 at SEA) 

(927) ST LOUIS (74-73) at (928) TORONTO (70-78)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 25-5 (+16.94 units) in home day games in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-135 vs. STL)

Series #24: Baltimore at Detroit, Fri 9/13-Sun 9/15
Trend: Favorites are 14-4 (77.8%, +7.25 units) in the last 18 games in the BAL-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 40.3%
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 at DET) 

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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