The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: HOU is 7-0 (+7.35 units) on the road against NL teams with a > 55% win pct with starter Framber Valdez in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-112 at SD)

Trend: BOS is 4-15 (-11.65 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-105 at TB)

Trend: NYM better at NIGHT (56-32, +22.30 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-170 vs. WSH) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
 Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 179 plays on this angle so far in ’24 through 9/17 and these teams are 105-74 for +17.75 units (9.9% ROI). This foundational angle has been one of the most consistent of our systems.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-155 at CIN) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1674-1580 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -214.36 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, MIAMI, NY METS, TEXAS, NY YANKEES 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-112 at SD), BOSTON (-105 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (+105 at MIL), TEXAS (-118 vs. TOR)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs. OAK), BALTIMORE (-162 vs. SF), HOUSTON (-112 at SD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 119-69 for -34.43 units and an ROI of -18.3%.
System Matches (FADE): ST LOUIS (-205 vs. PIT) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 338-419 record for -27.43 units (ROI -3.6%). This is well below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-102 at TEX), SEATTLE (+102 vs. NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at BAL)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 301-323 record, for +7.45 units (ROI 1.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-102 at TEX), SEATTLE (+102 vs. NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (+136 at BAL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 175-220 for -48.17 units (-12.2% ROI). The three-game teams are 83-94 for -11.72 units (-6.6% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+136 vs. AZ), FADE NY YANKEES (-122 at SEA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 179 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/17 and these teams are 105-74 for +17.75 units (9.9% ROI). This foundational angle has been one of the most consistent of our systems.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-155 at CIN) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 365-342 (51.6%) for +33.91 units of profit. This represents a ROI of 4.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-162 vs. SF), SEATTLE (+102 vs. NYY)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1674-1580 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -214.36 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, MIAMI, NY METS, TEXAS, NY YANKEES

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1598-2042 (43.9%) for -178.65 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH, ARIZONA, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3379-2971 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -464.17 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, CINCINNATI, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, TEXAS, COLORADO, LA ANGELS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 492-409 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.58 units, for an ROI of 3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+114 vs. DET)

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 306-154 (66.5%) for +39.20 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-115 vs. BOS) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +130 (+17 diff), PHILADELPHIA +105 (+20 diff), PITTSBURGH +170 (+25 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -185 (+55 diff), DETROIT -135 (+35 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-SD OVER 6.5 (+0.8), MIN-CLE OVER 7 (+0.7), OAK-CHC OVER 7.5 (+0.7), TOR-TEX OVER 8 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-STL UNDER 8 (-0.5), CWS-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ARIZONA (83-68) at (902) COLORADO (59-93)
Trend: AZ slight Over vs. LH starters (33-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10.5) 

(905) LOS ANGELES-NL (89-62) at (906) MIAMI (56-95)
Trend: MIA heavy Over at home (51-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5) 

(907) WASHINGTON (68-83) at (908) NEW YORK-NL (83-68)
Trend: NYM good at night (56-32, +22.30 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-170 vs. WSH) 

(909) PHILADELPHIA (91-60) at (910) MILWAUKEE (87-64)
Trend: MIL trending Over against RH starters (60-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(911) PITTSBURGH (71-80) at (912) ST LOUIS (76-75)
Trend: STL slight Under vs. divisional teams (19-31 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8) 

(913) CHICAGO-AL (36-116) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (61-90)
Trend: LAA only 8-18 this season when favorite
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-148 vs. CWS) 

(921) TORONTO (72-79) at (922) TEXAS (72-79)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (29-45 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8) 

(923) NEW YORK-AL (88-63) at (924) SEATTLE (77-74)
Trend: SEA not as good vs. AL East/Central (26-36, -16.59 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+102 vs. NYY) 

(925) OAKLAND (66-86) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (77-74)
Trend: CHC better vs. AL teams (27-18, +9.17 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs. OAK) 

(927) SAN FRANCISCO (73-78) at (928) BALTIMORE (84-67)
Trend: BAL worse vs. NL teams (19-25, -14.92 units)
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-162 vs. SF) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) ARIZONA (83-68) at (902) COLORADO (59-93)
Trend: COL is 6-3 (+4.10 units) vs. Arizona with starter Austin Gomber the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+136 vs. AZ) 

(909) PHILADELPHIA (91-60) at (910) MILWAUKEE (87-64)
Trend: PHI is 10-23 (-11.68 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+105 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is 7-11 (-12.33 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-125 vs. PHI)

(915) MINNESOTA (80-71) at (916) CLEVELAND (87-65)
Trend: MIN is 3-7 (-5.05 units) in SEPT/OCT ROAD starts for Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (+102 at CLE)

Trend: CLE is 17-4 (+13.10 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-122 vs. MIN) 

(917) BOSTON (75-76) at (918) TAMPA BAY (74-77)
Trend: BOS is 4-15 (-11.65 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-105 at TB) 

(923) NEW YORK-AL (88-63) at (924) SEATTLE (77-74)
Trend: SEA is 3-9 (-6.63 units) vs. AL East teams in the last two seasons with starter Bryce Miller
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+102 vs. NYY) 

(925) OAKLAND (66-86) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (77-74)
Trend: Justin Steele is 15-6 (+8.76 units) against teams with 45% or less win percentage
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-175 vs. OAK) 

(927) SAN FRANCISCO (73-78) at (928) BALTIMORE (84-67)
Trend: BAL is 28-11 (+14.79 units) in the last three seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 vs. SF) 

(929) HOUSTON (82-69) at (930) SAN DIEGO (86-66)
Trend: HOU is 7-0 (+7.35 units) on the road against NL teams with a > 55% win percentage with starter Framber Valdez in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-112 at SD)

Series #15: Boston at Tampa Bay, Tue 9/17 – Thu 9/19
Trend: Boston has lost 17 of its last 21 (19%, -12.95 units) games at Tampa Bay (3-1, +2.08 units this season however)
– The ROI on this trend is -61.7%
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-105 at TB)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 9/19)

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