Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 23, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 286-239 (54.5%) for +42.71 units and an ROI of 8.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-170 vs. SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 310-334 record for +6.16 units (ROI 1.0%).
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (+114 at HOU)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 181 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/22 and these teams are 107-74 for +19.75 units (10.9% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-118 vs BOS)
PHI LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 15-17 (46.9%) -6.15 units, ROI: -19.2%
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs. CHC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs. CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 126-71 for -32.46 units and a ROI of -16.5%.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs. CHC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 348-433 record, for -30.02 units (ROI -3.8%). This is well below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+150 at AZ), SEATTLE (+114 at HOU)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 310-334 record for +6.16 units (ROI 1.0%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (+114 at HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 178-224 for -49.87 units (-12.4% ROI). The three-game teams are 84-95 for -11.72 units (-6.5% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BOSTON (-102 at TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 181 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/22 and these teams are 107-74 for +19.75 units (10.9% ROI). This foundational angle has been one of the most consistent of our systems.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-118 vs. BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1685-1586 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -212.59 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-170 vs. SF), BOSTON (-102 at TOR)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1606-2055 (43.9%) for -183.56 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+142 at AZ)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3393-2982 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -465.70 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-170 vs. SF), HOUSTON (-135 vs. SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 496-414 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.82 units, for an ROI of 3.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs. CHC)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 286-239 (54.5%) for +42.71 units and an ROI of 8.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ARIZONA (-170 vs. SF)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-TOR OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) CHICAGO-NL (80-76) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (92-64)
Trend: PHI is better at home (52-25, +10.35 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs. CHC)
Trend: PHI slight Under vs. NL Central/West (22-35 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(953) SAN FRANCISCO (77-79) at (954) ARIZONA (87-69)
Trend: SF worse vs. LH starters (18-25, -13.00 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+150 at AZ)
Trend: AZ more Over at home (47-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(955) BOSTON (78-78) at (956) TORONTO (73-83)
Trend: TOR slight Over in divisional play (29-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(957) SEATTLE (80-76) at (958) HOUSTON (85-71)
Trend: SEA bad on the road (34-44, -19.66 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+114 at HOU)
Trend: HOU slight Under against RH starters (42-55 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) CHICAGO-NL (80-76) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (92-64)
Trend: PHI is 24-5 (+15.90 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs CHC)
(955) BOSTON (78-78) at (956) TORONTO (73-83)
Trend: BOS is 5-15 (-10.65 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-102 at TOR)
(957) SEATTLE (80-76) at (958) HOUSTON (85-71)
Trend: SEA is 10-6 (+4.75 units) against teams with a winning record with starter Bryce Miller this season
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+114 at HOU)
Trend: HOU is 3-8 (-6.95 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown in last couple seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (*if they become a favorite in this line range, -135 currently)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 15-17 (46.9%) -6.15 units, ROI: -19.2%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/23 vs. Chicago Cubs
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-192 vs. CHC)
