Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: ATL more Under at home (24-51 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total in KC-ATL (o/u at 8)
Trend: BOS is 7-21 (-16.12 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-125 vs. TB)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 287-240 (54.5%) for +41.73 units and an ROI of 7.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-162 vs. MIA)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 185-182 run (+30.94 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+124 vs. TEX), CINCINNATI (+105 at CHC)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is so far 78-46 since opening day 2024 and has lost -25.97 units, an ROI of -20.9%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-238 vs. CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-122 vs. HOU), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 vs. STL), NY METS (-110 at MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at WSH), LA DODGERS (-250 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-130 vs. PIT), TORONTO (-162 vs. MIA), ATLANTA (-185 vs. KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-120 vs. STL), MINNESOTA (-115 vs. BAL), ARIZONA (-162 vs. SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
1. Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 132-75, but for -35.60 units and an ROI of -17.2%.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-205 at WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle finalized at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/27, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 106-40 for +2.63 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-250 at COL), DETROIT (-238 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is so far 78-46 since opening day 2024 and has lost -25.97 units, an ROI of -20.9%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-238 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 358-438 record, for -23.41 units (ROI -2.9%). This is well below standards historically, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-110 vs. NYM), SAN DIEGO (+150 at AZ), TAMPA BAY (+102 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+124 vs. TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 318-337 record, for +11.62 units (ROI 1.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-110 vs. NYM), TAMPA BAY (+102 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+124 vs. TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 181-230 for -52.69 units (-12.8% ROI). The three-game teams are 86-99 for -13.62 units (-7.4% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI (+136 at TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 189 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/27 and these teams are 112-77 for +21.39 units (11.3% ROI). This foundational angle has been one of the most consistent of our systems.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+124 vs. TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 367-346 (51.5%) for +31.13 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-162 vs. MIA), COLORADO (+225 vs. LAD)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1687-1594 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -221.20 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+170 vs. PHI), MIAMI (+136 at TOR), LA DODGERS (-278 at COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1617-2063 (43.9%) for -179.52 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, OAKLAND
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3400-2996 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -476.65 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, TORONTO, MILWAUKEE
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 962-832 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +17.29 units for backers and an ROI of 1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, ATLANTA
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 287-240 (54.5%) for +41.73 units and an ROI of 7.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-162 vs. MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 185-182 run (+30.94 units, ROI: 8.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+124 vs. TEX), CINCINNATI (+105 at CHC)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 133-102 (+16.42 units, ROI: 7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-238 vs. CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -110 (+26 diff), TAMPA BAY +102 (+17 diff), KANSAS CITY +164 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -205 (+18 diff), MINNESOTA -115 (+22 diff), CLEVELAND -122 (+26 diff), TORONTO -162 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-BOS OVER 7.5 (+0.9), PHI-WSH OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), KC-ATL UNDER 8 (-0.7), NYM-MIL UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), SD-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CINCINNATI (76-84) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (82-78)
Trend: CIN worse during the day (24-37, -14.98 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+102 at CHC)
(909) SAN DIEGO (92-68) at (910) ARIZONA (88-72)
Trend: AZ trending Over in divisional games (33-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(915) BALTIMORE (89-71) at (916) MINNESOTA (82-78)
Trend: BAL slight Over vs. AL Central/West (36-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
(919) HOUSTON (87-73) at (920) CLEVELAND (92-68)
Trend: HOU more Under on the road (28-47 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(923) OAKLAND (69-91) at (924) SEATTLE (83-77)
Trend: SEA more Under at home (28-45 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(929) KANSAS CITY (85-75) at (930) ATLANTA (87-71)
Trend: ATL more Under at home (24-51 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(905) PHILADELPHIA (94-66) at (906) WASHINGTON (70-90)
Trend: PHI is 22-6 (+12.92 units) in the last 28 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-205 at WSH)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 8-16 (-6.76 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+170 vs. PHI)
