Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: NYM not as good during the day (29-36, -14.61 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS GAME 1 (+124 at ATL)
Trend: ATL trending Under at home (24-53 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 184-232 for -51.14 units (-12.3% ROI). The 3-game teams are 87-99 for -12.62 units (-6.8% ROI).
System Matches: FADE NY METS GAME 2 (*if they win Game 1 at ATL*)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2-23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA GAME 1 (-148 vs. NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 184-232 for -51.14 units (-12.3% ROI). The three-game teams are 87-99 for -12.62 units (-6.8% ROI).
System Matches: FADE NY METS GAME 2 (*if they win Game 1 at ATL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE in GAME 1
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections
System Matches: NONE in GAME 1
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-ATL GAME 1 OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) NEW YORK-NL (88-72) at (902) ATLANTA (88-72) (DH Game #1)
Trend: NYM not as good during the day (29-36, -14.61 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS GAME 1 (+124 at ATL)
Trend: ATL trending Under at home (24-53 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(903) NEW YORK-NL (88-72) at (904) ATLANTA (88-72) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Over the total is 7-3 in the head-to-head series in the last two seasons at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY OVER the total
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) NEW YORK-NL (88-72) at (904) ATLANTA (88-72) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Luis Severino is 7-19 (-10.47 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS GAME 2 (*if Severino starts)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 10/1)
