Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: The last nine games (100%, +9.00 units) of the Houston-Philadelphia head-to-head series went UNDER the total.
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 4-13 (-18.91 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-186 vs. MIA)
* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 176-92 for +40.23 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +15%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-150 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-164 at CIN), KANSAS CITY (-137 vs. TB), MILWAUKEE (-218 vs. PIT), HOUSTON (-157 vs. PHI), BOSTON (-169 at LAA)
Trend: Under the total is 28-12-2 (+14.80 units) in Orioles’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-BAL (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 102-63 for +26.27 units, and an ROI of 15.9%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the ’24 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. We lost -2.97 units last week, however.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-150 at NYM)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 30-31 for -10.2 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -16.7% and it is proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+129 at HOU)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 176-92 for +40.23 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +15%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle has gone 29-10 for +12.47 units since I introduced it two weeks ago.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-150 at NYM), NY YANKEES (-164 at CIN), KANSAS CITY (-137 vs. TB), MILWAUKEE (-218 vs. PIT), HOUSTON (-157 vs. PHI), BOSTON (-169 at LAA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 81-164 for -34.51 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.1%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+223 vs. LAD), WASHINGTON (+140 at SD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 58-23 for +6.51 units. This remains an uncustomary winning year for this angle, although we are getting closer to the red after another -3.17 units week this past seven days.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-218 vs PIT)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 86-27 for +16.74 units, an ROI of 14.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-326 vs. ATH), LA DODGERS (-281 at COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 and ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are still unusually positive, 58-23 for +5.15 units, but after a -3.91 units week, we are just a few losses away again from going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-281 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again, but we’ve given back -1.38 units the past two weeks. For the season the record is now 200-230 for +9.33 units, ROI +2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+113 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+104 vs. TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+105 vs. AZ), TAMPA BAY (+113 at KC), SEATTLE (-108 at MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 106-110 for -1.43 units (ROI -0.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (55-53, +1.09 units) are somewhat surprising. That said, these teams had their worst week of the season last week, going 5-10 for -8.32 units, and we are almost in negative territory finally.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+134 vs NYY), PITTSBURGH (+176 at MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and a ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO, ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEX-BAL, TOR-CLE, ATL-NYM
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 186-135 for +20.96 units and a ROI of 6.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-126 at CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 302-268 but for -77.85 units and a ROI of -13.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-157 vs. PHI), KANSAS CITY (-137 vs. TB)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 343-283 record for +57.99 units and an ROI of 9.3% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+129 at HOU), LA DODGERS (-275 at COL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 395-378 (51.1%) for +23.93 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+104 vs. AZ), MINNESOTA (-113 vs. SEA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1815-1730 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -255.06 units. This represents an ROI of -7.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, SEATTLE, LA ANGELS, WASHINGTON, DETROIT, LA DODGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1802-2291 (44%) for -199.19 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, TORONTO, TEXAS, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS
Home teams that scored well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3675-3237 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -517.66 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO, ST LOUIS, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 330-166 (66.5%) for +43.25 units and an ROI of 8.7%!
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (*if they become favored vs CHC, -101 currently)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATHLETICS +254 (+50 diff), COLORADO +223 (+21), PHILADELPHIA +129 (+20), CLEVELAND +104 (+20), PITTSBURGH +176 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -172 (+34 diff), ARIZONA -127 (+32), CHICAGO CUBS -115 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.5), PHI-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIA-SF UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) ATLANTA (36-41) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (46-33)
Trend: ATL is 14-26 (-21.36 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-150 at NYM)
(953) PITTSBURGH (32-48) at (954) MILWAUKEE (43-36)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 22-40 (-20.20 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+176 at MIL)
Trend: Under the total is 23-14-2 (+7.60 units) in Pirates’ road games this season
Trend: Under the total is 23-14-2 (+7.60 units) in Brewers’ home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-MIL (o/u at 7.5)
(955) CHICAGO-NL (46-32) at (956) ST LOUIS (43-36)
Trend: Over the total is 27-13 (+12.70 units) in Cardinals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-STL (o/u at 9)
(959) WASHINGTON (33-46) at (960) SAN DIEGO (42-36)
Trend: WSH is 36-20 (+12.49 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at SD)
(961) MIAMI (31-45) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (44-34)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 22-25 (+10.77 units) as an underdog of +135 or more in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+151 at SF)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 4-13 (-18.91 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-186 vs. MIA)
(963) TEXAS (38-41) at (964) BALTIMORE (34-44)
Trend: Under the total is 32-18 (+12.20 units) in Rangers’ night games this season
Trend: Under the total is 28-12-2 (+14.80 units) in Orioles’ night games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-BAL (o/u at 9.5)
(965) TORONTO (41-36) at (966) CLEVELAND (39-37)
Trend: CLE is 18-9 (+9.40 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+104 vs. TOR)
Trend: CLE is 7-14 (-7.21 units) when CLE faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+104 vs. TOR)
(967) ATHLETICS (32-48) at (968) DETROIT (49-30)
Trend: Luis Severino is 12-31 (-16.51 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+254 at DET)
(969) SEATTLE (40-37) at (970) MINNESOTA (37-41)
Trend: Over the total is 34-18-3 (+14.20 units) when SEA faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-MIN (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Luis Castillo is 4-14 (-9.92 units) as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (*if they fall into this line range, -108 currently)
(975) NEW YORK-AL (45-33) at (976) CINCINNATI (41-38)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is 6-12 (-12.75 units) in his last 18 road starts vs. NL teams
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-164 at CIN)
(979) PHILADELPHIA (47-31) at (980) HOUSTON (45-33)
Trend: PHI is 11-6 (+7.51 units) in road nightgame starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+129 at HOU)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Mon 6/23-Wed 6/25
Trend: Underdogs (and pick’ems) are 20-10 (66.7%, +12.25 units) in the last 30 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 40.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+113 at BAL)
Series #27: Philadelphia at Houston, Tue 6/24-Thu 6/26
Trend: The last nine games (100%, +9.00 units) of the Houston-Philadelphia head-to-head series went Under the total.
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 7.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 16-18 (47.1%) -6.15 units, ROI: -18.1% Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, June 24 at Houston
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+129 at HOU)
