The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 18, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 285-183 for +63.24 units, a ROI of 13.5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-188 vs. NYM), MINNESOTA (+108 at CIN) 

Trend: CHC is 17-5 (+9.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-159 vs. MIL) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 544-614 record but for +50.60 units and a ROI of 4.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-120 at SEA) 

Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 106-117 (-54.84 units, ROI: -24.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-196 vs. SD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 518-434 for +6.83 units and an ROI of 0.7% so far in the regular season. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -55.85 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, COLORADO, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, HOUSTON, DETROIT, TORONTO, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 96-56 for +28.24 units, and an ROI of 18.6%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. We gained another +4.29 units last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-188 vs. NYM), MINNESOTA (+108 at CIN)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 26-30 for -13.20 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -23.6% and it is proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-172 at MIA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 72-92 for -22.10 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-110 vs. AZ), TEXAS (+100 vs. KC), CLEVELAND (+113 at SF)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 161-87 for +35.32 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +14.2%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle was 14-5 for +7.56 units since I introduced it last Monday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 at SEA), DETROIT (-313 vs. PIT), ATLANTA (-188 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (-178 at CWS), KANSAS CITY (-122 at TEX), HOUSTON (-163 at ATH)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 75-157 for -35.86 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.5%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+129 at WSH), LA ANGELS (+181 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+145 vs. STL) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 54-22 for +5.17 units. Two straight losses by the NY Yankees bring this closer to negative territory.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-225 vs. LAA) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 83-24 for +20.67 units, an ROI of 19.3%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-313 vs. PIT) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
 A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. For the season, the record is now 189-209 for +14.21 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+140 vs. PHI), COLORADO (+129 at WSH), TORONTO (-110 vs. AZ), MINNESOTA (+108 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-102 at TB), TEXAS (+100 vs. KC), SAN DIEGO (+162 at LAD) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now nearly positive at 158-178 for -4.61 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+140 vs. PHI), COLORADO (+129 at WSH), TORONTO (-110 vs. AZ), MINNESOTA (+108 at CIN), BALTIMORE (-102 at TB), TEXAS (+100 vs. KC) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 97-97 for +4.1 units (ROI +2.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (53-48, +5.68 units) are somewhat surprising.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – LA ANGELS (+181 at NYY)
3+ games – CINCINNATI (-131 vs MIN), LA DODGERS (-199 vs SD) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far it is 107-83 for -1.35 units, having recovered from a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+129 at WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (-159 vs MIL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 55-49 for -8.36 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-225 vs. LAA), MINNESOTA (+108 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-137 vs. CLE)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

–  2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BOSTON, ARIZONA, KANSAS CITY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, TORONTO, ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-NYY 

MLB Series System

The following system is from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 544-614 record but for +50.60 units and a ROI of 4.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-120 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 393-374 (51.2%) for +26.43 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+156 vs. STL), ATHLETICS (+134 vs. HOU) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1805-1720 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.31 units. This represents an ROI of -7.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+138 at WSH), ST LOUIS (-192 at CWS), HOUSTON (-163 at ATH)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1790-2285 (43.9%) for -205.19 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-120 at SEA)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3661-3210 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -493.15 units and a ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, DETROIT, WASHINGTON, TORONTO, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS 

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1039-899 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.41 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-225 vs. LAA), ATHLETICS (+134 vs. HOU) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 328-165 (66.5%) for +42.89 units and a ROI of 8.7%!
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-313 vs PIT)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 65-135 skid (-38.81 units, ROI: -19.4%).
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-168 vs. COL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-19 (+12.01 units, ROI: 32.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 78-163 (-63.92 units, ROI: -26.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-168 vs. COL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 225-231 run (+20.83 units, ROI: 4.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-225 vs. LAA), WASHINGTON (-168 vs. COL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+156 vs. STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 106-117 (-54.84 units, ROI: -24.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-196 vs. SD) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +245 (+60 diff), TORONTO -110 (+23), NY METS +153 (+15), MINNESOTA +108 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -163 (+27 diff), ST LOUIS -178 (+20), PHILADELPHIA -171 (+17), TAMPA BAY -119 (+15), SAN FRANCISCO -137 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-SEA OVER 6.5 (+0.7), HOU-ATH OVER 9 (+0.6), PHI-MIA OVER 8 (+0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) PHILADELPHIA (43-30) at (952) MIAMI (29-42)
Trend: Under the total is 21-13-2 (+6.70 units) in Phillies road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 8)

Trend: PHI is 6-10 (-12.38 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-171 at MIA) 

(953) COLORADO (16-57) at (954) WASHINGTON (30-43)
Trend: WSH is 5-16 (-15.58 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-168 vs COL) 

(955) NEW YORK-NL (45-28) at (956) ATLANTA (32-39)
Trend: Under the total is 11-4 (+6.60 units) when NYM is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-ATL (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Paul Blackburn is 7-16 (-7.75 units) vs teams with a winning pct between 45-55% in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (+153 at ATL) 

(957) MILWAUKEE (39-35) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (45-28)
Trend: CHC is 17-5 (+9.35 units) as a favorite in the -145 to -165 range by starter Jameson Taillon in last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-159 vs MIL)

Trend: CHC is 39-18 (+13.91 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-159 vs MIL) 

(961) BOSTON (38-37) at (962) SEATTLE (37-35)
Trend: SEA is the most profitable team in day games this season (17-9, +6.97 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-102 vs. BOS) 

(965) BALTIMORE (31-41) at (966) TAMPA BAY (40-33)
Trend: Under the total is 14-6-2 (+7.40 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TB (o/u at 9) 

(967) KANSAS CITY (35-38) at (968) TEXAS (36-37)
Trend: Under the total is 28-9 (+18.10 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-TEX (o/u at 8)

Trend: Patrick Corbin is 6-10 (-3.84 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+100 vs KC)

(969) HOUSTON (42-31) at (970) ATHLETICS (30-45)
Trend: Luis Severino is 12-30 (-15.51 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+134 vs. HOU) 

(971) PITTSBURGH (29-45) at (972) DETROIT (47-27)
Trend: Under the total is 23-11-2 (+10.90 units) in Pirates’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-DET (o/u at 7)

Trend: Andrew Heaney is 22-39 (-19.20 units) vs teams with a >53% win pct in last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+245 at DET) 

(973) ARIZONA (36-36) at (974) TORONTO (39-33)
Trend: TOR is 23-13 (+9.55 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs AZ)

(975) MINNESOTA (36-36) at (976) CINCINNATI (38-35)
Trend: CIN is 20-14 (+2.72 units) at home with Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CINCINNATI (-131 vs MIN) 

(977) ST LOUIS (38-35) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (23-50)
Trend: Over the total is 26-12 (+12.80 units) in Cardinals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-CWS (o/u at 8.5) 

(979) CLEVELAND (36-35) at (980) SAN FRANCISCO (41-32)
Trend: CLE is 18-9 (+9.40 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+117 at SF)

Trend: Under the total is 33-18-1 (+13.20 units) when SF is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-SF (o/u at 8) 

Series #11: Houston at Athletics, Mon 6/16-Thu 6/19
Trend: The Athletics are 10-27 (27%, -9.65 units) in their last 37 games vs. Houston
–   The ROI on this trend is -26.1%.
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+134 vs. HOU) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, June 20)

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