The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:20 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-258 vs OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+124 at PIT), TAMPA BAY (-108 vs DET), TORONTO (-115 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-258 vs OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in MIL-PIT, PLAY OVER in DET-TB

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, NY METS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL, ATLANTA RL, MINNESOTA RL, SAN DIEGO RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 117-101 for -12.79 units. As shown before with the -.08 unit return, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, NY METS, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative at 20-11 for -1.80 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-258 vs. OAK), ATLANTA (-198 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-192 at COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season. This angle is so far 14-6 in the two-and-a-half weeks and has won +1.16 units.
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-258 vs OAK), FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs MIA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 38-48 record for -4.26 units. This angle did win just shy of a unit last week and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+124 at PIT), NY METS (-102 at SF), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs TOR), BALTIMORE (-105 at LAA), ARIZONA (-108 at STL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 25-20 for +6.46 units after a 6-10 for -3.96 units last week. The three-game teams are 14-13 for +3.11 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE CINCINNATI (+102 vs PHI)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 21-16 for -1.69 units after a rough 1-5 last week.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+124 at PIT), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-122 at CIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1327-1725 (43.5%) for -167.19 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (+210 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (+120 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+154 at MIN), NY METS (+100 at SF) (HOU 4/23)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2961-2594 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.03 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-258 vs OAK)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 423-357 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.44 units, for a ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-258 vs OAK), LA ANGELS (-115 vs BAL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 135-110 run (+51.77 units, ROI: 21.1%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-142 vs MIL), PLAY ST LOUIS (-105 vs AZ), PLAY LA ANGELS (-115 vs BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 103-101 (+18.56 units, ROI: 9.1%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY ST LOUIS (-105 vs AZ), PLAY LA ANGELS (-115 vs BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of 5-games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 120-85 (+22.10 units, ROI: 10.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-122 at CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 151-99 in their last 250 tries (+24.02 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-122 at CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 62-66 (-30.50 units, ROI: -23.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (+120 at PIT)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -105 (+32 diff), NY METS -102 (+15 diff), OAKLAND +210 (+52 diff), BALTIMORE -105 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.6), MIL-PIT OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-ATL UNDER 9.5 (-0.8)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(953) PHILADELPHIA (14-8) at (954) CINCINNATI (12-9)
Trend: PHI is 11-3 (+6.20 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-122 at CIN)

Trend: PHI is 7-2 (+7.55 units) in road night game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-122 at CIN)

(957) ARIZONA (11-12) at (958) ST LOUIS (9-13)
Trend: Lance Lynn is 10-2 (+7.70 units) at home within line range of +100 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-112 vs AZ)

(959) SAN DIEGO (12-12) at (960) COLORADO (5-17)
Trend: Dylan Cease is 10-2 (+5.82 units) in the last five seasons as a large road favorite (-170 or higher)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-180 at COL)

(963) OAKLAND (8-14) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (15-7)
Trend: Oakland is 4-14 (-7.75 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+210 at NYY)

Trend: Oakland is 2-7 (-4.60 units) vs AL East teams with starter JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+210 at NYY)

Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 6-12 (-7.77 units) in the last 18 starts with NYY
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-258 vs OAK)

Series #25: Baltimore at LA Angels, Mon 4/22-Wed 4/24
Trend: Baltimore has won 15 of the last 19 games (78.9%, +12.33 units) against LA Angels
– The ROI on this trend is 64.9%
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 at LAA)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

ARIZONA 
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 5-13 (27.8%) -7.83 units, ROI: -43.5%       
Next betting opportunity: Monday 4/22 at St Louis
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-115 at STL)

NY YANKEES   
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 23-5 (82.1%) 16.65 units, ROI: 59.5%  
Next betting opportunity: Monday 4/22, vs Oakland
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-258 vs OAK)

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