Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits data
Top MLB Resources:
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-270 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-130 at CHC), TEXAS (+102 vs SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-270 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-130 at CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: MIL-PIT and BOS-CLE
PLAY UNDER in: PHI-CIN, TOR-KC, and LAD-WSH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA RL, LA DODGERS RL, NY YANKEES RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 17-6 for +4.66 units and an ROI of 20.3%. However, the ROI dropped 17% over the past 16 days.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 25-11 for -1.78 units.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-218 vs. CWS), PLAY NY YANKEES (-270 vs. OAK)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 16-9 in the four weeks and has lost -0.64 units, an ROI of -2.6%.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 48-55 record, for +0.00 units. This angle did win go 14-14 last week for +2.05 units and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches: NONE
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these two-game teams have gone 29-27 for +4.93 units. The three-game teams are 14-16 for +0.42 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE CINCINNATI (+136 vs PHI)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak were 23-21 for -5.51 units through Wednesday, 4/24, after a great 10-4, +5 units week.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at WSH), PLAY MINNESOTA (-218 vs. CWS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 323-295 (52.3%) for +41.74 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+160 vs LAD), CLEVELAND (-155 vs BOS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1470-1379 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-192 at WSH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1331-1738 (43.4%) for -175.91 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-102 at KC), SEATTLE (-122 at TEX)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2967-2601 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -397.03 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+136 vs. PHI), NY YANKEES (-270 vs. OAK), MINNESOTA (-218 vs. CWS), TEXAS (+102 vs. SEA)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 837-712 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +31.33 units for backers and a ROI of 2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-155 vs. BOS), WASHINGTON (+160 vs. LAD), PITTSBURGH (+114 vs MIL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 247-203 (54.9%) for +40.82 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-155 vs. BOS), PLAY WASHINGTON (+160 vs. LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 73-60 outright (+5.20 units, ROI: 3.9%).
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-130 at CHC)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 138-111 run (+53.93 units, ROI: 21.7%).
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-130 at CHC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +136 (+27 diff), TORONTO +100 (+19 diff), OAKLAND +220 (+50 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-CLE OVER 7.5 (+1.0), TOR-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.9), MIL-PIT OVER 7 (+0.5), LAD-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-MIN UNDER 8 (-0.9), SEA-TEX UNDER 9 (-0.8)
MLB Team Situational Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) MILWAUKEE (15-8) at (902) PITTSBURGH (13-12)
Trend: Milwaukee has been good during the day (9-2, +8.06 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-135 at PIT)
(903) PHILADELPHIA (15-10) at (904) CINCINNATI (14-10)
Trend: Philadelphia is trending Under on the road (1-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(905) SAN DIEGO (14-13) at (906) COLORADO (6-19)
Trend: Colorado trending Under during the day (1-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 11)
(909) BOSTON (14-11) at (910) CLEVELAND (17-7)
Trend: Boston has been good on the road (11-4, +7.68 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (+120 at CLE)
(911) CHICAGO-AL (3-21) at (912) MINNESOTA (10-13)
Trend: Minnesota has been trending Under during the day (3-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(917) OAKLAND (9-16) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (17-8)
Trend: Oakland has been bad at night (2-11, -8.30 units
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+220 at NYY)
(919) HOUSTON (7-18) at (920) CHICAGO-NL (15-9)
Trend: Houston has been trending Under in interleague play (0-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) MILWAUKEE (15-8) at (902) PITTSBURGH (13-12)
Trend: Pittsburgh is 5-17 (-8.95 units) vs. teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+114 vs MIL)
(903) PHILADELPHIA (15-10) at (904) CINCINNATI (14-10)
Trend: PHI is 16-4 (+9.97 units) in the last 20 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-162 at CIN)
(905) SAN DIEGO (14-13) at (906) COLORADO (6-19)
Trend: Dakota Hudson is 8-4 (+4.35 units) against NL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+124 vs SD)
(917) OAKLAND (9-16) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (17-8)
Trend: NYY is 13-1 (+11.10 units) at home as a large favorite of -185 or more with starter Nestor Cortes in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-270 vs OAK)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
