The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-180 vs OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MINNESOTA (+105 at LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE TAMPA BAY (-238 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: STL-NYM, PIT-SF
PLAY UNDER in: LAD-TOR, WSH-MIA, PHI-SD

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (-118 vs KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS, ST LOUIS, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, TAMPA BAY RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system still provides about a 9-unit advantage even as it performs below its usual expectations.
System Matches: NY METS, MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, LA DODGERS, CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 17-6 for +4.66 units and an ROI of 20.3%. However, the ROI dropped 17% over the past 16 days.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-218 vs COL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative at 26-14 for -8.76 units after a brutal 0-2, -5.20 units day on Friday.
System Matches: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 at CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge MLB betting trend opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 16-9 in the four weeks and has lost -0.64 units, an ROI of -2.6%.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-218 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the ’24 season, these teams produced a 53-59 record for +1.52 units. This angle did win go 14-14 last week for +2.05 units and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+110 vs STLMINNESOTA (+105 at LAA), CINCINNATI (+110 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (+110 vs NYY), CLEVELAND (+154 at ATL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 29-28 for +3.93 units. The 3-game teams are 16-16 for +2.52 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ST LOUIS (-130 at NYM), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-102 at SD)

3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-102 at DET), FADE ATLANTA (-185 vs CLE)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 28-21 for -0.51 units through Friday, 4/25, after a great 10-4, +5 units week.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+105 at LAA), PLAY LA DODGERS (-155 at TOR), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at BOS), PLAY MILWAUKEE (+110 vs. NYY)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 29 plays on this angle in 2024, and these teams are 16-13 for -0.83 units.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-135 vs WSH), PLAY HOUSTON (-218 vs COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 324-296 (52.3%) for +41.74 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+130 vs. LAD), DETROIT (-118 vs. KC)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1471-1380 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.72 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-155 at TOR), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs TB), PHILADELPHIA (-102 at SD), COLORADO (+180 vs HOU)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1335-1742 (43.4%) for -176.66 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+154 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+110 at TEX), ARIZONA (+136 at SEA), PITTSBURGH (+124 at SF)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2969-2609 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.34 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-185 vs. CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs. TB), MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. NYY), SEATTLE (-162 vs. AZ)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 425-359 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.00 units, for a ROI of 2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-135 vs. WSH), DETROIT (-118 vs. KC)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 248-204 (54.9%) for +40.82 units and an ROI of 9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+130 vs LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 138-112 run (+52.38 units, ROI: 21%).
System Matches: PLAY TORONTO (+130 vs. LAD), PLAY HOUSTON (-218 vs. COL), PLAY MIAMI (-135 vs. WSH)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 47-41 (+8.83 units, ROI: 10%) in their last 88 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+105 at LAA)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 121-86 (+21.75 units, ROI: 10.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+105 at LAA)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 152-101 in their last 253 tries (+22.37 units, ROI: 8.8%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+105 at LAA)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 64-68 (-30.80 units, ROI: -23.3%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-155 at TOR), FADE ATLANTA (-185 vs CLE), FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -102 (+16 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +195 (+32 diff), BOSTON -105 (+20 diff), CLEVELAND +154 (+31 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-TOR OVER 7.5 (+1.3), CHC-BOS OVER 8.5 (+1.3), CLE-ATL OVER 8.5 (+0.6), AZ-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5), STL-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-CWS UNDER 8.5 (-1.1)

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ST LOUIS (12-14) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (13-12)
Trend: STL trending Under against RH starters (5-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(903) WASHINGTON (11-14) at (904) MIAMI (6-21)
Trend: MIA has been awful against LH starters (1-11, -10.73 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-135 vs WSH)

(905) PHILADELPHIA (17-10) at (906) SAN DIEGO (14-15)
Trend: SD has been good against LH starters (5-1, +3.98 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-118 vs PHI)

(907) PITTSBURGH (13-14) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (13-14)
Trend: SF trending Under at home (4-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(911) KANSAS CITY (17-10) at (912) DETROIT (14-12)
Trend: KC trending Under in Divisional play (2-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(919) CINCINNATI (14-12) at (920) TEXAS (14-13)
Trend: TEX trending Under at HOME (4-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(921) CHICAGO-NL (17-9) at (922) BOSTON (14-13)
Trend: CHC good against RH starters (15-6, +10.55 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at BOS)

(925) NEW YORK-AL (17-10) at (926) MILWAUKEE (17-8)
Trend: NYY good against RH starters (13-4, +8.44 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-130 at MIL)

Trend: MIL trending UNDER vs LH starters (0-3 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(927) CLEVELAND (18-8) at (928) ATLANTA (18-6)
Trend: ATL has been good at night (12-3, +6.20 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-185 vs CLE)

(929) ARIZONA (12-15) at (930) SEATTLE (14-12)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs RH starters (3-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) ST LOUIS (12-14) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (13-12)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 20-6 (+13.72 units) in the last 26 day game starts (including 12-2 (+10.83 units) in the last 14)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+110 vs STL)

(905) PHILADELPHIA (17-10) at (906) SAN DIEGO (14-15)
Trend: PHI is 14-4 (+10.40 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-102 at SD)

(909) OAKLAND (11-16) at (910) BALTIMORE (16-9)
Trend: OAK is 5-14 (-5.70 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+150 at BAL)

Trend: OAK is 3-7 (-2.55 units) vs. AL East teams with starter JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+150 at BAL)

(913) TAMPA BAY (13-14) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (4-22)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 21-5 (+13.85 units) against teams with a < 43% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-238 at CWS)

(917) LOS ANGELES-NL (17-11) at (918) TORONTO (13-14)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 15-6 (+14.64 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+130 vs LAD)

(923) HOUSTON (7-19) at (924) COLORADO (7-19)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 1-11 (-9.40 units) as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+180 vs HOU)

(925) NEW YORK-AL (17-10) at (926) MILWAUKEE (17-8)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 6-13 (-10.27 units) in the last 19 starts with NYY
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-130 at MIL)

Trend: Carlos Rodon is 4-11 (-12.50 units) in the last 15 ROAD starts vs. NL teams
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-130 at MIL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

COLORADO      
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 16-11 (59.3%) 9.75 units, ROI: 36.1%    
Next betting opportunity: Saturday 4/27 vs Houston
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+180 vs HOU)

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