Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-185 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (-125 vs. OAK), NY YANKEES (-135 at MIL), TEXAS (-130 vs. CIN), PHILADELPHIA (+114 at SD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority haandle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in KC-DET, PLAY UNDER in PIT-SF, PLAY UNDER in MIN-LAA, PLAY UNDER in AZ-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-175 vs. CLE), FADE DETROIT (-155 vs. KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8%, and if it continues in 2024, it will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE RL, HOUSTON RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: NY METS, SAN DIEGO, DETROIT, TAMPA BAY, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 18-6 for +5.66 units and an ROI of 23.6%. However, the ROI dropped 13% over the past 16 days.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-218 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 57-61 record for +4.16 units. This angle did win, going 14-14 last week for +2.05 units and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+145 at ATL), PLAY LA DODGERS (-110 at TOR), PLAY MILWAUKEE (+114 vs NYY), PLAY CINCINNATI (+110 at TEX), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at BOS)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 31-29 for +4.93 units. The three-game teams are 16-18 for -0.26 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games –FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs TB)
3+ games – FADE ST LOUIS (+105 at NYM), FADE PHILADELPHIA (+114 at SD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 30-23 for -0.71 units through Saturday, 4/26, after a great 10-4, +5 units week.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-112 at LAA), PLAY LA DODGERS (-110 at TOR), PLAY SEATTLE (-135 vs AZ)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 32 plays on this angle so far in 2024, and these teams are 18-14 for -0.01 units.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-135 vs PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 325-297 (52.3%) for +41.74 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-142 vs. WSH), MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. NYY), LA ANGELS (-108 vs. MIN)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1474-1381 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -175.08 units. This represents an ROI of -6.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+120 at MIA), BOSTON (-135 vs. CHC), HOUSTON (-218 at COL), NY YANKEES (-135 at MIL), MINNESOTA (-112 at LAA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1338-1743 (43.4%) for -174.00 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (+154 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at BOS), ARIZONA (+114 at SEA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2971-2611 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.42 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-185 vs. OAK), BOSTON (-135 vs. CHC), DETROIT (-155 vs. KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs. TB), LA ANGELS (-108 vs. MIN)
Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 838-715 (54%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +29.33 units for backers and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-118 vs. LAD), SEATTLE (-135 vs. AZ), SAN DIEGO (-135 vs. PHI)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 248-205 (54.7%) for +39.82 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (-108 vs. MIN), PLAY MILWAUKEE (+114 vs. NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 139-114 run (+50.96 units, ROI: 20.1%).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-142 vs. WSH), PLAY TORONTO (-118 vs. LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 122-86 (+22.75 units, ROI: 10.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-112 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 153-101 in their last 254 tries (+23.37 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-112 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 65-70 (-32.68 units, ROI: -24.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-102 at TOR)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA (+26 diff), MILWAUKEE +114 (+27 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -135 (+39 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-SEA OVER 7 (+0.8)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-CWS UNDER 8.5 (-1.0), OAK-BAL UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), WSH-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) WASHINGTON (12-14) at (952) MIAMI (6-22)
Trend: WSH is 9-2 (+7.35 units) in day games against teams with a <=44% win percentage with starter Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (+120 at MIA)
Trend: WSH is 9-36 (-25.80 units) vs Divisional opponents with starter Patrick Corbin since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+120 at MIA)
(953) ST LOUIS (13-14) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (13-13)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 15-3 (+11.1 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-125 vs STL)
(961) KANSAS CITY (17-11) at (962) DETROIT (15-12)
Trend: DET is 8-1 (+10.85 units) with starter Tarik Skubal against teams with a >60% win percentage in career
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-155 vs KC)
(965) MINNESOTA (13-13) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (10-17)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 14-3 (+10.30 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, -115 currently*)
(973) CINCINNATI (15-12) at (974) TEXAS (14-14)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 15-5 (+7.75 units) at home as a -120 favorite or higher in career
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-130 vs CIN)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 9-22 (-15.40 units) in day game starts in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-130 vs CIN)
(975) HOUSTON (8-19) at (976) COLORADO (7-20)
Trend: COL was 7-4 (+5.35 units) during the day last season with starter Austin Gomber (1-1, +0.35 units this season)
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+180 vs HOU)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 2-13 (-9.20 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+180 vs HOU)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
