The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Home teams are 6-20 (23.1%, -20.50 units) in the last 26 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays. The ROI on this trend is -78.8%.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)

Trend: FAVORITES are 20-2 (90.9%, +15.60 units) in the last 22 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 70.9%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 at MIL)

Trend: Under the total is 7-2 in STL-CIN head-to-head series this season (including 5-0 at CIN)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 78-90 (-47.64 units, ROI: -28.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-218 vs. COL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 141-167 for -20.09 units. The three-game teams are 73-74 for +2.35 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI (+150 at PHI), FADE DETROIT (+120 vs. SEA), FADE TORONTO (-105 at LAA)
3+ games – FADE LA DODGERS (-120 at MIL), FADE HOUSTON (-125 at TB)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs. MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-110 at MIN), CINCINNATI (-105 vs. STL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-245 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and a ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-180 vs. WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at CLE), NY METS (-185 vs. OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-115 vs. ATL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): STL-CIN

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/13, the record of this angle is at 81-32 for -1.38 units (huge road favorite loss of -360 by NYY on 8/12).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-205 vs. COL), NY YANKEES (-245 at CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 51-33 since opening day 2024 and has lost -19.23 units, an ROI of -22.9%. While still solid results, this angle has cooled of late.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-205 vs. COL), NY YANKEES (-245 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 257-311 record for -16.89 units (ROI -3%). This is performing below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (+105 at SF), MINNESOTA (-108 vs KC), TEXAS (+120 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+105 vs. HOU), OAKLAND (+154 at NYM)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 230-249 record for +2.21 units (ROI 0.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. LAD), ATLANTA (+105 at SF), MINNESOTA (-108 vs KC), TEXAS (+120 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+105 vs. HOU)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 141-167 for -20.09 units. The three-game teams are 73-74 for +2.35 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MIAMI (+150 at PHI), FADE DETROIT (+120 vs. SEA), FADE TORONTO (-105 at LAA)
3+ games – FADE LA DODGERS (-120 at MIL), FADE HOUSTON (-125 at TB)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 154-140 for -20.44 units (-7% ROI) through Tuesday, 8/13. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (-205 vs. COL), CINCINNATI (-105 vs. STL), CLEVELAND (-142 vs. CHC), OAKLAND (+154 at NYM)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 147 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/13 and these teams are 80-67 for +3.67 units. This angle was stuck in neutral for most of the early part of the season but has enjoyed a 35-23, +8.20-unit performance over the last eight weeks or so.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. LAD), PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs. MIA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1630-1517 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -181.10 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+154 at BAL), DETROIT (+120 vs. SEA), OAKLAND (+154 at NYM), BOSTON (-155 vs. TEX), MINNESOTA (-105 vs. KC)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1526-1967 (43.7%) for -189.54 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-142 at DET), ST LOUIS (-115 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+114 at CLE), PITTSBURGH (+114 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3292-2884 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -433.29 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+120 vs. SEA), BOSTON (-155 vs. TEX), MINNESOTA (-105 vs. KC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 28-87 skid (-41.71 units, ROI -36.3%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+114 at SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 64-145 (-64.89 units, ROI: -31%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+114 at SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-165 run (+33.78 units, ROI: 10.1%).
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+114 at SD)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 142-155 (+6.64 units, ROI: 2.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+114 at SD)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 188-105 (+4.58 units, ROI: 1.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-218 vs. COL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 178-116 in their last 294 tries (+26.56 units, ROI: 9%).
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-122 at TB), PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 at MIL)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 78-90 (-47.64 units, ROI: -28.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-218 vs. COL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +200 (+17 diff), OAKLAND +154 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -192 (+19 diff), LA DODGERS -120 (+22 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-MIN OVER 8 (+0.8), TEX-BOS OVER 9 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), PIT-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), TOR-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.7)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) COLORADO (44-77) at (952) ARIZONA (68-53)
Trend: COL bad on the road (17-45, -15.71 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at AZ)

(955) MIAMI (45-75) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (69-50)
Trend: MIA more Under on the road (22-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(957) ST LOUIS (60-60) at (958) CINCINNATI (59-61)
Trend: Under the total is 7-2 in the head-to-head series this season (including 5-0 at CIN)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-49) at (960) MILWAUKEE (67-52)
Trend: MIL is 16-24 (-13.35 units) vs. NL East/West this season
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+105 vs LAD)

(961) ATLANTA (63-56) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (61-61)
Trend: ATL slightly better vs. LH starters (22-13, +1.26 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-105 at SF)

(963) KANSAS CITY (65-55) at (964) MINNESOTA (67-52)
Trend: MIN leads head-to-head series (7-2 record, 5-1 at home) this season
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-110 vs KC)

(967) SEATTLE (63-57) at (968) DETROIT (57-63)
Trend: DET more Over vs. AL teams (46-33 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(971) NEW YORK-AL (71-50) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (29-92)
Trend: CWS bad at night (19-54, -25.74 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 vs. NYY)

(973) TORONTO (56-64) at (974) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-68)
Trend: LAA just 7-11 as a home favorite this season
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs TOR)

(975) WASHINGTON (55-65) at (976) BALTIMORE (70-50)
Trend: BAL hasn’t been good vs. NL teams this season (14-19, -13.92 units)
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-180 vs WSH)

(979) OAKLAND (51-69) at (980) NEW YORK-NL (61-58)
Trend: NYM better at night (39-28, +9.04 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-185 vs. OAK)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) MIAMI (45-75) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (69-50)
Trend: MIA is 3-7 (-3.46 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at PHI)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (71-49) at (960) MILWAUKEE (67-52)
Trend: LAD is 4-8 (-6.60 units) as a short favorite (in line range -120 to -145) with starter Walker Buehler in since 2019
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-125 at MIL)

(975) WASHINGTON (55-65) at (976) BALTIMORE (70-50)
Trend: BAL is 26-10 (+13.89 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-180 vs WSH)

(977) CHICAGO-NL (59-62) at (978) CLEVELAND (71-49)
Trend: CHC is 13-4 (+7.38 units) against AL Central by starter Jameson Taillon
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at CLE)

Trend: Alex Cobb is 9-1 (+7.85 units) in his last 10 HOME starts
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-142 vs. CHC)

Series #2: Toronto at LA Angels, Mon 8/12-Wed 8/14
Trend: Home teams are 6-20 (23.1%, -20.50 units) in the last 26 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.
– The ROI on this trend is -78.8%.
System Matches: FADE LA ANGELS (-115 vs. TOR)

Series #13: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee, Mon 8/12-Thu 8/15
Trend: Favorites are 20-2 (90.9%, +15.60 units) in the last 22 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 70.9%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 at MIL)

Series #20: Washington at Baltimore, Tue 8/13-Wed 8/14
Trend: Under the total is 12-1 (92.3%, +10.95 units) in the last 13 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 84.2%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

Series #29: Texas at Boston, Mon 8/12-Wed 8/14
Trend: Home teams are 17-8 (68%, +6.38 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 25.5%
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-155 vs. TEX)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 8/19)

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