Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, August 20, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Frankie Montas 0-8 (-9.30 units) vs. NL Central
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+102 at STL)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 9-24 (-22.14 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-142 vs. CIN)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-33, -23.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+130 vs. AZ)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 179-118 in their last 297 tries (+23.71 units, ROI: 8%).
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-162 vs. COL), SAN FRANCISCO (-245 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 244-259 record for +7.22 units (ROI 1.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+114 vs. PHI), MILWAUKEE (+102 at STL), CLEVELAND (+130 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+114 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (+114 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
- Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
- Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
- Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
- Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-162 vs. COL), SAN FRANCISCO (-245 vs. CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-142 vs. CIN), TAMPA BAY (-122 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (*if they become -250 or higher favorites vs CWS, -245 currently)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, CHICAGO CUBS, MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): TORONTO (-142 vs CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/19, the record of this angle has dipped into negative territory at 86-34 for -0.73 units.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-245 vs. CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 272-325 record for -14.06 units (ROI -2.4%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it, especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+114 vs. PHI), MILWAUKEE (+102 at STL), CLEVELAND (+130 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+170 at KC), CINCINNATI (+114 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (+114 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. MIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 244-259 record for +7.22 units (ROI 1.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+114 vs. PHI), MILWAUKEE (+102 at STL), CLEVELAND (+130 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+114 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (+114 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 160-181 for -10.57 units. The three-game teams are 80-82 for +3.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TEXAS (-135 vs. PIT), FADE DETROIT (+124 at CHC)
3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 157 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/19, and these teams are 88-69 for +9.66 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+130 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+170 at KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1637-1529 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -188.11 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-155 at MIA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1538-1982 (43.7%) for -190.13 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, SEATTLE
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3308-2894 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -429.65 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, WASHINGTON, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 472-403 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.50 units, for an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-155 vs. CLE)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 189-106 (+2.88 units, ROI: 1%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 179-118 in their last 297 tries (+23.71 units, ROI: 8%).
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +170 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -130 (+22 diff), TORONTO -135 (+16 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-MIA OVER 7.5 (+0.8), BAL-NYM OVER 8 (+0.6), COL-WSH OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-CHC UNDER 7.5 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ARIZONA (70-56) at (952) MIAMI (46-79)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-33, -23.06 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+130 vs AZ)
(953) COLORADO (46-79) at (954) WASHINGTON (56-69)
Trend: COL not good bet vs. LH starters (12-26, -8.90 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+130 at WSH)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (73-51) at (956) ATLANTA (66-58)
Trend: ATL trending Under at home (20-36 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(957) MILWAUKEE (72-52) at (958) ST LOUIS (61-63)
Trend: MIL is 11-2 in the last 13 of the series with STL
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+102 at STL)
(959) CLEVELAND (72-52) at (960) NEW YORK-AL (73-52)
Trend: CLE trending Over vs AL East/West (29-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(961) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-72) at (962) KANSAS CITY (70-55)
Trend: KC better at home (39-25, +10.42 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-205 vs LAA)
(965) TAMPA BAY (62-62) at (966) OAKLAND (54-71)
Trend: Over the total is 11-7 when TB is a road favorite this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(967) CINCINNATI (61-64) at (968) TORONTO (58-67)
Trend: CIN more Under vs. AL teams (11-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(969) BALTIMORE (73-53) at (970) NEW YORK-NL (65-60)
Trend: BAL trending Over on the road (36-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(971) PITTSBURGH (58-66) at (972) TEXAS (58-68)
Trend: TEX heavy Under at home (21-40 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(973) DETROIT (61-64) at (974) CHICAGO-NL (61-64)
Trend: CHC good vs. AL teams (23-14, +9.63 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-162 vs DET)
(977) CHICAGO-AL (30-96) at (978) SAN FRANCISCO (64-63)
Trend: CWS more Under vs. LH starters (7-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(979) SEATTLE (64-62) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-52)
Trend: SEA not as good on the road (27-36, -15.37 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+130 at LAD)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) ARIZONA (70-56) at (952) MIAMI (46-79)
Trend: MIA is 11-5 (+7.68 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+130 vs. AZ)
(957) MILWAUKEE (72-52) at (958) ST LOUIS (61-63)
Trend: Frankie Montas 0-8 (-9.30 units) vs. NL Central
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+102 at STL)
Trend: Erick Fedde is 17-7 (+10.42 units) in the -115 to +110 line range
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (*if they fall into this line range, -122 currently)
(967) CINCINNATI (61-64) at (968) TORONTO (58-67)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 9-24 (-22.14 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-142 vs. CIN)
(969) BALTIMORE (73-53) at (970) NEW YORK-NL (65-60)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 16-3 (+12.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-122 vs. BAL)
(975) MINNESOTA (70-55) at (976) SAN DIEGO (71-55)
Trend: MIN is 6-10 (-5.44 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-112 at SD)
Trend: Martin Perez is 11-5 (+6.30 units) as an underdog within +100 to +110 line range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, -108 currently)
(979) SEATTLE (64-62) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (74-52)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 7-2 vs. AL teams (+3.64 units) since 2019
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-155 vs. SEA)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
COLORADO
Momentum after series vs. SAN DIEGO: 17-13 (56.7%) 9.05 units, ROI: 30.2%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 8/20 at Washington
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+130 at WSH)
