The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Favorites are just 20-34 (37%, -27.91 units) in the last 54 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
–  The ROI on this trend is -51.7%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-198 vs. TOR)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 271-223 (55%) for +45.17 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (+100 vs. BOS)

Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-5 (+11.01 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-120 at CLE)

Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in PHI-SEA (o/u at 8)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 77-88 (-46.32 units, ROI: -28.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-102 at PIT)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 77-44 for -21.22 units and an ROI of -17.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-245 vs MIA), SAN DIEGO (-205 vs COL), NY YANKEES (-198 vs TOR)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-155 vs. TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs. STL), PITTSBURGH (-118 vs. AZ), SEATTLE (-120 vs. PHI)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): WATCH FOR ATLANTA vs. MIA (*-245 currently)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-175 at OAK), NY METS (-125 at LAA), PHILADELPHIA (+100 at SEA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-118 vs .AZ), CINCINNATI (-135 vs. SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SF-CIN, MIA-ATL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, OAKLAND, LA ANGELS, PHILADELPHIA

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 77-44 for -21.22 units and a ROI of -17.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-245 vs. MIA), SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. COL), NY YANKEES (-198 vs. TOR)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is positive at 79-29 for +4.32 units (ROI of 4%).
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-205 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 44-29 since opening day 2024 and has lost -18.36 units, a season low ROI of -25.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-205 vs. CWS), NY YANKEES (-198 vs. TOR)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 235-280 record, for -10.41 units (ROI -2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+100 vs. BOS), CLEVELAND (-102 vs. BAL), OAKLAND (+145 vs. LAD), LA ANGELS (+105 vs. NYM), PHILADELPHIA (+100 at SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 209-221 record for +7.40 units (ROI 1.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. Awful day on Monday, 7/29, going 0-6 for -6.10 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+100 vs. BOS), CLEVELAND (-102 vs. BAL), LA ANGELS (+105 vs. NYM), PHILADELPHIA (+100 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 127-148 for -14.16 units. The three-game teams are 66-68 for +1.85 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at CIN), FADE BOSTON (-120 at TEX)
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA (-102 at PIT), FADE COLORADO (+170 at SD)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For ’24, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 143-128 for -14.79 units (-5.5% ROI) through Friday, 8/2.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs. STL), ATLANTA (-245 vs. MIA), KANSAS CITY (-142 at DET), CLEVELAND (-102 vs. BAL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 132 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/2 and these teams are 74-58 for +9.49 units (7.2% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+100 vs. BOS), LA ANGELS (+105 vs. NYM), PHILADELPHIA (+100 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-328 (51.8%) for +34.23 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+114 vs. KC)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1613-1503 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -181.82 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-102 at PIT), KANSAS CITY (-135 at DET), BOSTON (-120 at TEX), MINNESOTA (-205 vs. CWS), SEATTLE (-125 vs. PHI)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1509-1951 (43.6%) for -194.58 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+130 at HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (+105 at SEA)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3261-2849 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -422.28 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, OAKLAND

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 912-797 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +7.60 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+114 vs. KC), CINCINNATI (-135 vs. SF)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 462-400 (53.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +7.17 units, for an ROI of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+105 vs. NYM), CINCINNATI (-135 vs. SF)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 298-150 (66.5%) for +36.55 units and an ROI of 8.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-125 vs PHI), TEXAS (*if they become a favorite vs BOS, +100 currently)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 271-223 (55%) for +45.17 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (+100 vs. BOS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on an 26-82 skid (-39.36 units, ROI -36.4%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-115 skid (-40.59 units, ROI: -24.6%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-140 (-62.54 units, ROI: -31%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-64 in their last 94 tries (-19.76 units, ROI: -21%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 138-147 (+11.01 units, ROI: 3.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+100 vs MIL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 174-114 in their last 288 tries (+25.63 units, ROI: 8.9%).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+100 vs. BAL)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 77-88 (-46.32 units, ROI: -28.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (-102 at PIT)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +200 (+15 diff), TORONTO +170 (+40 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +180 (+15 diff), OAKLAND +145 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -120 (+22 diff), PITTSBURGH -118 (+30 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-TEX OVER 8 (+1.3), MIL-WSH OVER 9 (+0.8)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-ATL UNDER 9 (-1.0), NYM-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.9), SF-CIN UNDER 9 (-0.7)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ST LOUIS (56-54) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (54-58)
Trend: STL more Under during the day (20-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(903) MILWAUKEE (62-47) at (904) WASHINGTON (49-61)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. NL East/West (13-20, -12.39 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-120 at WSH)

(905) ARIZONA (59-51) at (906) PITTSBURGH (55-54)
Trend: AZ slight Over at night (43-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(909) MIAMI (40-70) at (910) ATLANTA (60-49)
Trend: ATL leads the head-to-head season series 7-1 (including 5-0 at home)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-245 vs MIA)

(911) COLORADO (41-70) at (912) SAN DIEGO (59-52)
Trend: SD trending Over in divisional play (22-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(917) BOSTON (58-50) at (918) TEXAS (52-58)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (17-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-85) at (920) MINNESOTA (60-48)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (10-45, -29.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN)

(921) BALTIMORE (65-46) at (922) CLEVELAND (67-42)
Trend: Over the total is 5-1 when CLE has been a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(925) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-47) at (926) OAKLAND (46-65)
Trend: OAK slight Under at night (24-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(927) NEW YORK-NL (58-51) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (47-63)
Trend: LAA not as good at home (24-35, -9.08 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+105 vs NYM)

(929) PHILADELPHIA (65-44) at (930) SEATTLE (58-53)
Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) ST LOUIS (56-54) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (54-58)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 2-8 (-7.25 units) vs MIL/CHC in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+100 at CHC)

Trend: Kyle Gibson is 6-12 (-8.58 units) as a shorter road underdog between line range of -105 to +130 against NL teams in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+100 at CHC)

(913) TORONTO (51-59) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (65-46)
Trend: Carlos Rodon not good in -185 to -210 favorite line range, going 1-10 (-18.20 units) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-198 vs TOR)

(917) BOSTON (58-50) at (918) TEXAS (52-58)
Trend: BOS is 3-13 (-10.60 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-120 at TEX)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-85) at (920) MINNESOTA (60-48)
Trend: MIN is 5-0 (+5.75 units) at home vs. CWS with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-205 vs CWS)

(921) BALTIMORE (65-46) at (922) CLEVELAND (67-42)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-5 (+11.01 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-120 at CLE)

(925) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-47) at (926) OAKLAND (46-65)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 25-9 (+7.33 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-175 at OAK)

(929) PHILADELPHIA (65-44) at (930) SEATTLE (58-53)
Trend: SEA is 12-16 (-3.92 units) vs teams with a winning record with starter Bryce Miller in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-125 vs PHI)

Series #19: Toronto at NY Yankees, Fri 8/2-Sun 8/4
Trend: Favorites are just 20-34 (37%, -27.91 units) in the last 54 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
–  The ROI on this trend is -51.7%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-198 vs TOR)

Series #29: Boston at Texas, Fri 8/2-Sun 8/4

Trend: Home teams are 14-7 (66.7%, +4.58 units) since 2021 in TEX-BOS h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 21.8%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+100 vs BOS)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday, 8/6)

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