Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 5, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-14 (-10.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+100 vs. MIN)
Trend: Over the total is 7-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: PHI is 10-21 (-9.68 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+114 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-142 (-64.54 units, ROI: -31.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BOS-KC
Trend: STL is 12-6 as a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-105 vs NYM)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of the 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
- Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
- Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
- Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
- Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. AZ), LA DODGERS (-135 vs. PHI)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+102 vs. AZ), MINNESOTA (-122 at CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-135 vs PHI)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): BOS-KC
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher, went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: NY METS, MIAMI, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, OAKLAND, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 237-285 record, for -13.10 units (ROI -2.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+120 vs. CIN), CLEVELAND (+102 vs. AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 vs. MIN)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 211-225 record for +5.71 units (ROI 1.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. Awful day on Monday, 7/29, going 0-6 for -6.10 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+120 vs. CIN), CLEVELAND (+102 vs. AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 vs. MIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 127-150 for -16.21 units. The three-game teams are 66-70 for -0.17 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+142 vs. SF)
3+ games – FADE MINNESOTA (-122 at CHC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1616-1506 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -182.01 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA (-120 at CHC)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1511-1955 (43.6%) for -195.96 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-142 at MIA), HOUSTON (-115 at TEX), NY METS (-115 at STL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3270-2857 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -422.82 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+120 vs. CIN), CLEVELAND (+102 vs. AZ), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 vs. MIN)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 914-797 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +9.60 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-105 vs. HOU)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 26-84 skid (-41.36 units, ROI -37.6%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at OAK)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-117 skid (-42.59 units, ROI: -25.5%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at OAK)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-142 (-64.54 units, ROI: -31.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at OAK)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 139-147 (+12.01 units, ROI: 4.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+150 at OAK)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +122 (+16 diff), CLEVELAND +102 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY -130 (+15 diff), OAKLAND -180 (+27 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.86)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) NEW YORK-NL (58-53) at (902) ST LOUIS (57-55)
Trend: STL is 12-6 as a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-105 vs. NYM)
(903) CINCINNATI (53-58) at (904) MIAMI (42-70)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (37-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (56-57) at (906) WASHINGTON (51-61)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (14-21, -11.36 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-170 at WSH)
(907) PHILADELPHIA (66-45) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (65-47)
Trend: Over the total is 10-3 when PHI is a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(911) BOSTON (59-51) at (912) KANSAS CITY (63-50)
Trend: KC is great at home (36-22, +11.12 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. BOS)
(913) CHICAGO-AL (27-87) at (914) OAKLAND (46-67)
Trend: OAK is 9-3 as a home favorite this season
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (-180 vs. CWS)
(915) ARIZONA (60-52) at (916) CLEVELAND (67-44)
Trend: Over the total is 7-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(917) MINNESOTA (62-48) at (918) CHICAGO-NL (55-59)
Trend: CHC pretty good vs. AL teams (17-9, +9.63 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+100 vs. MIN)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(905) SAN FRANCISCO (56-57) at (906) WASHINGTON (51-61)
Trend: SF is 15-4 (+7.42 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-170 at WSH)
(907) PHILADELPHIA (66-45) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (65-47)
Trend: PHI is 2-5 (-3.14 units) vs. LA Dodgers with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+114 at LAD)
Trend: PHI is 10-21 (-9.68 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+114 at LAD)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 10-2 (+4.50 units) vs NL East teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 vs. PHI)
(909) HOUSTON (57-54) at (910) TEXAS (53-59)
Trend: HOU is 3-7 (-5.75 units) as a short favorite (-115 to -130 line range) with starter Hunter Brown
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-115 at TEX)
(911) BOSTON (59-51) at (912) KANSAS CITY (63-50)
Trend: KC is 7-8 (-5.30 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range with starter Brady Singer in last few seasons
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-135 vs BOS)
(915) ARIZONA (60-52) at (916) CLEVELAND (67-44)
Trend: CLE is 15-5 (+10.37 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+102 vs. AZ)
(917) MINNESOTA (62-48) at (918) CHICAGO-NL (55-59)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 3-14 (-10.75 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+100 vs. MIN)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/6)
