Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, June 15, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-180 vs STL), FADE HOUSTON (-135 vs DET)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was ’23 regular season’s most lucrative system
– In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 31-20 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -9.00 units, a season long ROI of -17.6%.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-205 vs OAK), FADE LA DODGERS (-218 vs KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more are on an 25-75 skid (-33.50 units, ROI -33.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
Trend: MIA awful vs LH starters (3-21, -19.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+105 at WSH)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 15-3 (+11.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-120 vs SD)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 0-10 (-10.00 units) as a ROAD underdog of +140 or higher in L4 seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+150 at BAL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:20 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is not a loss, and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+100 at NYM), MILWAUKEE (-135 vs CIN), SEATTLE (-130 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-148 vs LAA), PHILADELPHIA (+150 at BAL), ATLANTA (-135 vs TB), LA DODGERS (-218 vs KC), ARIZONA (-155 vs CWS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: DET-HOU
PLAY UNDER in: TEX-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-180 vs STL), FADE HOUSTON (-135 vs DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL (at BOS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, NY YANKEES, SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, ARIZONA
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 46-29 for -15.75 units and an ROI of -21%. Last week’s 1-3 (-5.38 unit) performance built upon the season results.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-205 vs OAK), FADE LA DODGERS (-218 vs KC)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was ’23 regular season’s most lucrative system
– In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 31-20 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -9.00 units, a season long ROI of -17.6%.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-205 vs OAK), FADE LA DODGERS (-218 vs KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 151-184 record for -10.41 units (ROI -3.1%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever last week though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+150 at CHC), MIAMI (+105 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (+100 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+100 at TOR), PHILADELPHIA (+150 at BAL)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 138-143 record, for +8.18 units (ROI 2.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+105 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (+100 at NYM), CLEVELAND (+100 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these 2-game teams have gone 84-97 for -9.72 units. The 3-game teams are 41-45 for -2.65 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches:
2-games – FADE CINCINNATI (+114 at MIL)
3-games – FADE NY METS (-120 vs SD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For ’24, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak are 97-81 for +0.92 units (0.5% ROI) thru Friday 6/14.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+150 at CHC), MINNESOTA (-205 vs OAK)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
– Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 89 plays on this angle so far in ’24 through 6/14 and these teams are 45-44 for -4.65 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (+105 at WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 334-316 (51.4%) for +29.79 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 4.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (+142 vs NYY)
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1426-1855 (43.5%) for -188.79 units and a R.O.I. of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+105 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (+100 at NYM), DETROIT (+114 at HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 at AZ), TEXAS (+110 at SEA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3105-2725 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -414.98 units and a R.O.I. of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-125 vs MIA), ATLANTA (-135 vs TB), MILWAUKEE (-135 vs CIN), MINNESOTA (-205 vs OAK), ARIZONA (-155 vs CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (-148 vs LAA
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 878-762 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +13.83 units for backers and a R.O.I. of 0.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-180 vs STL), NY METS (-120 vs SD), TORONTO (-125 vs CLE)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
HOME TEAMS that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 446-383 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.40 units, for a R.O.I. of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-180 vs STL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more are on an 25-75 skid (-33.50 units, ROI -33.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 49-102 skid (-28.69 units, ROI: -19%).
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 60-127 (-51.78 units, ROI: -27.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 157-144 run (+37.18 units, ROI: 12.4%).
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 125-127 (+15.51 units, ROI: 6.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON +136 (+21 diff), KANSAS CITY +180 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -170 (+17 diff), HOUSTON -130 (+21 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -148 (+18 diff), ATLANTA -135 (+17 diff), ARIZONA -155 (+28 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-SEA OVER 6.5 (+0.6), PHI-BAL OVER 8 (+0.6), LAA-SF OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ST LOUIS (34-34) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (33-37)
Trend: STL trending UNDER during the DAY (8-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(953) MIAMI (23-46) at (954) WASHINGTON (33-36)
Trend: MIA awful vs LH starters (3-21, -19.37 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+105 at WSH)
(955) SAN DIEGO (37-36) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (31-37)
Trend: SD trending UNDER vs LH starters (8-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(957) CINCINNATI (34-35) at (958) MILWAUKEE (40-29)
Trend: MIL trending OVER at HOME (20-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(959) PITTSBURGH (33-36) at (960) COLORADO (24-45)
Trend: PIT trending OVER vs LH starters (16-7 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10.5)
(961) OAKLAND (26-46) at (962) MINNESOTA (38-32)
Trend: OAK not great vs AL Central/East (9-22, -6.76 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at MIN)
(963) CLEVELAND (44-23) at (964) TORONTO (33-36)
Trend: TOR trending UNDER vs AL Central/West (9-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(965) DETROIT (33-36) at (966) HOUSTON (32-38)
Trend: HOU trending UNDER vs RH starters (17-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(967) NEW YORK-AL (50-22) at (968) BOSTON (35-35)
Trend: NYY great vs RH starters (41-16, +21.20 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 at BOS)
(969) TEXAS (33-36) at (970) SEATTLE (41-31)
Trend: SEA heavy UNDER at HOME (11-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 6.5)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (27-42) at (972) SAN FRANCISCO (34-36)
Trend: SF not as good vs LH starters (8-13, -7.36 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-148 vs LAA)
(973) PHILADELPHIA (47-22) at (974) BALTIMORE (45-24)
Trend: PHI trending OVER as ML underdog (8-0 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(975) TAMPA BAY (33-37) at (976) ATLANTA (37-30)
Trend: ATL heavy UNDER vs AL teams (4-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(979) CHICAGO-AL (18-53) at (980) ARIZONA (34-36)
Trend: CWS bad vs RH starters (13-43, -24.13 unit
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+130 at AZ)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the L5 years.
(953) MIAMI (23-46) at (954) WASHINGTON (33-36)
Trend: MIA is 10-25 (-11.89 units) on the ROAD with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+105 at WSH)
Trend: MIA is 8-30 (-19.86 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+105 at WSH)
(955) SAN DIEGO (37-36) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (31-37)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 15-3 (+11.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-120 vs SD)
(957) CINCINNATI (34-35) at (958) MILWAUKEE (40-29)
Trend: CIN was 4-1 (+3.85 units) on the ROAD in Divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott last season
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (+114 at MIL)
(969) TEXAS (33-36) at (970) SEATTLE (41-31)
Trend: George Kirby is 6-0 (+6.15 units) vs Texas in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-130 vs TEX)
Trend: SEA is 9-1 (+7.60 units) as a short HOME favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-130 vs TEX)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (27-42) at (972) SAN FRANCISCO (34-36)
Trend: LAA is 2-13 (-12.43 units) following up a team win in his previous outing with starter Patrick Sandoval in the L2 seasons
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+124 at SF)
Trend: LAA is 5-16 (-13.93 units) in L21 DAY game starts by Patrick Sandoval (including 3-10 (-6.46 units) in L13 starts as a DAY game underdog)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+124 at SF)
(973) PHILADELPHIA (47-22) at (974) BALTIMORE (45-24)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 0-10 (-10.00 units) as a ROAD underdog of +140 or higher in L4 seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (+150 at BAL)
(977) KANSAS CITY (40-31) at (978) LOS ANGELES-NL (43-28)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 3-10 (-10.21 units) on the ROAD against teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+180 at LAD)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 6/17)
