Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 14, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 293-144 (67%) for +41.55 units and an ROI of 9.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. OAK), CINCINNATI (-180 vs. MIA)
Trend: BAL is 11-1 (+10.94 units) in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 vs. NYY)
Trend: MIA is awful vs. LH starters (5-28, -23.77 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at CIN)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 114 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/13 and these teams are 62-52 for +4.53 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 17-8, +9.18-unit performance over the last three weeks.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. WSH)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-135 vs. MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-122 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+114 at TB), SAN FRANCISCO (-135 vs. MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-205 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, PITTSBURGH, SAN FRANCISCO, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CLE-TB, MIN-SF, ATL-SD
PLAY UNDER in: TOR-AZ
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-135 vs. MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs. OAK), NY METS (-1.5 vs. COL), CINCINNATI (-180 vs. MIA), PITTSBURGH (-1.5 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 669-564 for -31.35 units. This well below usual standards after a couple of losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, PITTSBURGH, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 67-41 for -17.53 units and an ROI of -16.2%.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-198 vs. COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is close to positive at 69-29 for -2.83 units after some big losses over the last two weeks.
System Matches (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-205 at CWS), PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. OAK)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 42-26 since opening day 2024 and has lost -13.89 units, a season-long ROI of -20.4%.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs OAK)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 205-240 record, for -4.57 units (ROI -1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+114 at TB), MINNESOTA (+114 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 183-184 record, for +16.54 units (ROI 4.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. This angle has really stabilized over the past month or so.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+114 at TB), MINNESOTA (+114 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 109-133 for -20.76 units. The three-game teams are 56-59 for +0.50 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (+124 at MIL), FADE LA ANGELS (+142 vs. SEA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 125-113 for -11.85 units (-5% ROI) through Saturday, 7/13. Over the last two-plus weeks, this system has taken a big hit (-15.01 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-198 vs. COL), CINCINNATI (-180 vs. MIA), PITTSBURGH (-205 at CWS), ARIZONA (-148 vs. TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 114 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/13 and these teams are 62-52 for +4.53 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 17-8, +9.18-unit performance over the last three weeks.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1588-1481 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -179.38 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, ARIZONA
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1478-1919 (43.5%) for -193.57 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, TEXAS, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, TORONTO
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3211-2804 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -412.87 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, CINCINNATI, BOSTON, NY METS, ST LOUIS, ARIZONA
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 455-391 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.72 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-135 vs TEX)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 293-144 (67%) for +41.55 units and an ROI of 9.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. OAK), CINCINNATI (-180 vs. MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 136-139 (+16.35 units, ROI: 5.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+150 at CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 188-100 (+12.79 units, ROI: 4.4%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-218 vs. COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 173-111 in their last 284 tries (+28.25 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-218 vs. COL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE +102 (+35 diff), KANSAS CITY +124 (+15 diff), CLEVELAND +114 (+22 diff), DETROIT +145 (+20 diff), MINNESOTA +114 (+16 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -166 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5), TOR-AZ OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-MIL UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) COLORADO (33-63) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (49-45)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 2-5 (-6.55 units) as a DAY game large favorite (-165 or more) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-218 vs COL)
(903) MIAMI (32-63) at (904) CINCINNATI (47-49)
Trend: MIA is 11-27 (-11.49 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at CIN)
Trend: MIA is 9-32 (-20.41 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 17-8 (+8.94 units) at HOME with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-180 vs MIA)
(907) CHICAGO-NL (46-51) at (908) ST LOUIS (50-45)
Trend: STL is 9-2 (+5.35 units) in home day games vs CHC/PIT/CIN in the last five seasons with starter Miles Mikolas
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-130 vs CHC)
(911) NEW YORK-AL (58-39) at (912) BALTIMORE (57-38)
Trend: BAL is 25-9 (+13.94 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 vs NYY)
Trend: BAL is 11-1 (+10.94 units) in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 vs NYY)
(917) TEXAS (45-50) at (918) HOUSTON (50-45)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 11-8 (+4.98 units) as an underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at HOU)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 19-5 (+10.35 units) in the last 24 DAY games starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at HOU)
(929) TORONTO (43-52) at (930) ARIZONA (49-47)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 15-8 (+12.64 units) as a day game underdog of +105 or more in career
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+124 at AZ)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 7/22)
