The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-4 (+12.23 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-115 at TOR)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-106 skid (-31.59 units, ROI: -20.3%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-258 vs. CWS)

Trend: SEA trending Under at home (16-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 120 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/23 and these teams are 66-54 for +5.87 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 21-10, +10.40-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-162 at OAK), ATLANTA GAME 1 (-180 vs. CIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY (WATCH FOR ATLANTA GAME 1 vs. CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ST LOUIS (-105 at PIT)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-258 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-135 at MIN), BOSTON (-155 at COL), BALTIMORE (-130 at MIA), NY YANKEES (-166 vs NYM), KANSAS CITY (-122 vs. AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and a ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, CLEVELAND, TAMPA BAY, TEXAS, PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA (BOTH GAMES)

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is slightly negative at 72-28 for -0.3 units.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-258 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 216-256 record, for -7.98 units (ROI -1.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-105 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+142 at SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 193-200 record for +11.47 units (ROI 2.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-105 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+142 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 119-140 for -15.40 units. The three-game teams are 59-62 for +1.19 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE OAKLAND (+136 vs. HOU), FADE NY METS (+140 at NYY)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 131-120 for -15.31 units (-6.1% ROI) through Tuesday 7/23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-185 vs. SF), LA ANGELS (+142 at SEA), TEXAS (-258 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 120 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/23, and these teams are 66-54 for +5.87 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 21-10, +10.40-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-162 at OAK), ATLANTA GAME 1 (-180 vs. CIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’ll want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1494-1932 (43.6%) for -191.57 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-105 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+120 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX), HOUSTON (-162 at OAK), SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3228-2823 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -419.33 units and a ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. DET), MIAMI (+110 vs BAL), OAKLAND (+136 vs. HOU), LA DODGERS (-185 vs. SF)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 906-789 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.24 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA GAME 1 (-180 vs. CIN), MINNESOTA (+114 vs. PHI), SEATTLE (-170 vs. LAA)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 459-394 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +11.01 units, for an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA GAME 1 (-180 vs. CIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on an 26-79 skid (-36.36 units, ROI -34.6%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-106 skid (-31.59 units, ROI: -20.3%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-131 (-53.54 units, ROI: -27.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-156 run (+42.78 units, ROI: 13.1%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 138-141 (+17.09 units, ROI: 6.1%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 188-101 (+10.81 units, ROI: 3.7%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-185 vs. SF)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +210 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -115 (+16 diff), PHILADELPHIA -135 (+31 diff), BALTIMORE -130 (+25 diff), KANSAS CITY -122 (+27 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-MIN OVER 8 (+1.0), DET-CLE OVER 7 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) CINCINNATI (48-53) at (902) ATLANTA (54-45) (DH Game #2)
Trend: ATL more Under at home (16-32 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (48-54) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-41)
Trend: SF worse on the road (20-31, -11.29 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+154 at LAD)

(913) LOS ANGELES-AL (44-57) at (914) SEATTLE (53-50)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (16-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(915) DETROIT (50-52) at (916) CLEVELAND (60-40)
Trend: CLE good at home (32-14, +10.86 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs DET)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-76) at (920) TEXAS (49-52)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (10-42, -26.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at TEX)

(921) PHILADELPHIA (64-37) at (922) MINNESOTA (55-45)
Trend: MIN better during the day (29-18, +6.10 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (+114 vs PHI)

(923) BOSTON (54-46) at (924) COLORADO (37-65)
Trend: BOS solid as road favorite (13-5 record)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-155 at COL)

(925) BALTIMORE (60-40) at (926) MIAMI (36-65)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (35-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(929) ARIZONA (52-50) at (930) KANSAS CITY (56-46)
Trend: KC great at home (35-19, +14.52 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-122 vs AZ)

(931) CINCINNATI (48-53) at (932) ATLANTA (54-45) (DH Game #1)
Trend: CIN bad during the day (17-26, -11.92 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+110 at ATL)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (48-54) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (61-41)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 35-8 (+14.63 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last five seasons (including 21-4 (+8.70 units) in home starts)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-185 vs. SF)

(911) HOUSTON (52-49) at (912) OAKLAND (41-62)
Trend: OAK is 8-19 (-7.40 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+136 vs. HOU)

(917) TAMPA BAY (51-50) at (918) TORONTO (45-55)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-4 (+12.23 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-115 at TOR)

Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-6 (+6.25 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-115 at TOR)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-76) at (920) TEXAS (49-52)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 15-4 (+7.80 units) at home vs. teams with a < 48% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-258 vs. CWS)

(921) PHILADELPHIA (64-37) at (922) MINNESOTA (55-45)
Trend: PHI is 7-1 (+4.55 units) vs. AL Central teams with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-135 at MIN)

(923) BOSTON (54-46) at (924) COLORADO (37-65)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in the +135 to +145 line range (9-5 record, +7.55 units) in the last four seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+136 vs. BOS)

(925) BALTIMORE (60-40) at (926) MIAMI (36-65)
Trend: MIA is 9-5 (+5.40 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+110 vs. BAL)

Trend: MIA is 2-7 (-4.60 units) against teams with a >57% win pct with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+110 vs. BAL)

Series #1: Houston at Oakland, Mon 7/22-Wed 7/24
Trend: Oakland is 7-22 (24.1%, -9.25 units) in its last 29 games vs. Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is -31.9%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+136 vs. HOU)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, 7/29)

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