The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Aaron Civale is 21-7 (+9.22 units) against teams with a < 43% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-162 vs MIA)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 296-149 (66.5%) for +35.80 units and an ROI of 8.0%!
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 (-225 vs. COL)

Trend: LAD is just 2-7 as a ROAD underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+124 at HOU)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 126 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/26 and these teams are 69-57 for +5.40 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 24-13, +9.93-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+100 at NYM), NY YANKEES (+102 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAD-HOU (o/u at 9)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of BETS on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of BETS on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of BETS on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-135 vs. TEX), CINCINNATI (+110 at TB), DETROIT (-105 vs. MIN), NY YANKEES (+102 at BOS), LA ANGELS (-125 vs. OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+100 vs. SD), CINCINNATI (+110 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. CLE), HOUSTON (-148 vs. LAD), KANSAS CITY (-120 vs. CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-148 vs. LAD), BOSTON (-122 vs. NYY)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAD-HOU (o/u at 9)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the ’24 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, PITTSBURGH, TEXAS, MINNESOTA, SEATTLE, NY YANKEES, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, CHICAGO CUBS,

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are again losing money, 69-42 for -24.52 units and an ROI of -22.1%.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (BOTH GAMES of DH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 220-260 record, for -7.04 units (ROI -1.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+100 at NYM), PITTSBURGH (+145 at AZ), TEXAS (+114 at TOR), NY YANKEES (+102 at BOS), BALTIMORE (+100 vs. SD), CINCINNATI (+110 at TB), CLEVELAND (+124 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 196-204 record for +10.87 units (ROI 2.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+100 at NYM), TEXAS (+114 at TOR), NY YANKEES (+102 at BOS), BALTIMORE (+100 vs. SD), CINCINNATI (+110 at TB), CLEVELAND (+124 at PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at KC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 121-142 for -14.98 units. The three-game teams are 62-62 for +4.91 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE OAKLAND (+105 at LAA)
3+ games – FADE NY METS (-120 vs. ATL), FADE ARIZONA (-175 vs. PIT), FADE SAN DIEGO (-120 at BAL)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 135-123 for -15.04 units (-5.8% ROI) through Friday 7/26.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-120 at BAL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 126 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/26 and these teams are 69-57 for +5.40 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 24-13, +9.93-unit performance over the last month-and-a-half.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+100 at NYM), NY YANKEES (+102 at BOS), CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at KC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 351-326 (51.8%) for +35.71 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs SEA)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1601-1490 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.47 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-122 vs. NYY), SEATTLE (-148 at CWS), WASHINGTON (+124 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 (-225 vs. COL), MINNESOTA (-115 at DET)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1502-1938 (43.7%) for -187.63 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+100 at KC), LA DODGERS (+124 at HOU)

HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3236-2829 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -419.64 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, NY METS, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS, SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 296-149 (66.5%) for +35.80 units and an ROI of 8.0%!
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO GAME 1 (-225 vs. COL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-109 skid (-34.59 units, ROI: -21.8%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 62-134 (-56.54 units, ROI: -28.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-159 run (+39.78 units, ROI: 12.1%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs SEA)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 138-144 (+14.09 units, ROI: 5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs. SEA)

Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 188-102 (+8.83 units, ROI: 3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-120 vs. ATL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +145 (+25 diff), DETROIT -105 (+17 diff), BALTIMORE +100 (+30 diff), CINCINNATI +110 (+28 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -162 (+29 diff), LA ANGELS -125 (+32 diff), PHILADELPHIA -148 (+24 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COL-SF GAME 1 OVER 7 (+1.0), MIA-MIL OVER 8 (+0.7), MIN-DET OVER 6.5 (+0.7), SD-BAL OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-LAA UNDER 9 (-1.0)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) ATLANTA (54-48) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (55-48)
Trend: Under the total is 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings in NY (including 4-1 this season)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(955) MIAMI (38-66) at (956) MILWAUKEE (59-44)
Trend: MIL trending Over at home (28-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(959) PITTSBURGH (52-51) at (960) ARIZONA (54-50)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. NL East/Central (12-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(961) COLORADO (38-66) at (962) SAN FRANCISCO (50-55) (DH Game #2)
Trend: COL not as good on the road (14-37, -11.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at SF)

(963) TEXAS (51-53) at (964) TORONTO (47-56)
Trend: TEX solid vs. AL East/Central (22-15, +7.21 units)
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at TOR)

(965) MINNESOTA (57-45) at (966) DETROIT (51-54)
Trend: MIN pretty good this season as road favorite (19-10 record)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-115 at DET)

(967) SEATTLE (54-51) at (968) CHICAGO-AL (27-79)
Trend: SEA trending Under at night (24-41 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(969) NEW YORK-AL (60-45) at (970) BOSTON (55-47)
Trend: NYY more Over in divisional play (23-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)

(973) SAN DIEGO (56-50) at (974) BALTIMORE (61-42)
Trend: BAL is 4-2 this season as a home underdog
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+100 vs SD)

(975) CINCINNATI (50-53) at (976) TAMPA BAY (52-52)
Trend: TB trending Over vs. LH starters (17-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(977) CLEVELAND (62-41) at (978) PHILADELPHIA (64-39)
Trend: CLE slight Under in interleague play (7-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (62-43) at (980) HOUSTON (54-49)
Trend: LAD is just 2-7 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+124 at HOU)

(981) CHICAGO-NL (49-56) at (982) KANSAS CITY (57-47)
Trend: KC great at home (36-20, +14.27 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-120 vs CHC)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) MIAMI (38-66) at (956) MILWAUKEE (59-44)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 21-7 (+9.22 units) against teams with a < 43% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-162 vs MIA)

Trend: Aaron Civale is 18-7 (+4.82 units) in HOME NIGHT games as a favorite in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-162 vs MIA)

(959) PITTSBURGH (52-51) at (960) ARIZONA (54-50)
Trend: Marco Gonzales is 13-6 (+9.50 units) in the last 19 road night starts
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING PITTSBURGH (+145 at AZ)

(963) TEXAS (51-53) at (964) TORONTO (47-56)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 9-18 (-19.79 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs TEX)

(971) OAKLAND (43-63) at (972) LOS ANGELES-AL (45-59)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 18-6 (+15.56 units) vs AL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (-125 vs OAK)

(973) SAN DIEGO (56-50) at (974) BALTIMORE (61-42)
Trend: BAL is 26-9 (+14.94 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+100 vs SD)

Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 7/26-Sun 7/28
Trend: Colorado is 7-23 (23.3%, -13.13 units) in their last 30 games vs. San Francisco
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -43.8%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (BOTH GAMES of DH)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, 7/29)

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