The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Over the total is 14-1 (93.3%, +13.00 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 86.7%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)

Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (7-29, -22.13 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+142 at MIA)

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-112 skid (-37.59 units, ROI: -23.2%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs. KC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHC-CIN

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-327 (51.8%) for +35.71 units of profit. This represents a ROI of 5.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-120 vs. NYY)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 124-144 for -13.60 units. The three-game teams are 64-66 for +2.53 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE MILWAUKEE (-125 vs. ATL), FADE TAMPA BAY (-170 vs. MIA), FADE PITTSBURGH (+160 at HOU)
3-games – FADE NY YANKEES (+100 at PHI), FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs. OAK)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-205 vs TOR)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-135 at CIN), ATLANTA (+105 at MIL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY at CWS (*-198 currently)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, TEXAS, HOUSTON, COLORADO, SAN FRANCISCO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-125 vs. MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and a ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CHC-CIN

    MLB Bullpen Systems

    The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

    The easiest way to play the bullpen system
    Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
    System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA, ARIZONA, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, NY METS, TEXAS, LA ANGELS, OAKLAND

    Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

    Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
    In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 72-42 for -21.52 units and an ROI of -18.9%.
    System Matches (FADE): BALTIMORE (-198 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (-192 vs. PIT)

    Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
    A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is slightly positive at 76-29 for +1.32 units.
    System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-198 at CWS)

    Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
    In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 43-28 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -17.31 units, a season-low ROI of -24.4%.
    System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-192 vs. PIT)

    Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
    A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 227-272 record for -11.50 units (ROI -2.3%).
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+105 at MIL), MIAMI (+142 at TB), OAKLAND (+170 at SF)

    Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
    Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 202-215 record for +5.91 units (ROI 1.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. Awful day on Monday 7/29, going 0-6 for -6.10 units.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+105 at MIL), MIAMI (+142 at TB)

    Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
    In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 124-144 for -13.60 units. The three-game teams are 64-66 for +2.53 units.
    System Matches: 2-games – FADE MILWAUKEE (-125 vs. ATL), FADE TAMPA BAY (-170 vs. MIA), FADE PITTSBURGH (+160 at HOU)
    3-games – FADE NY YANKEES (+100 at PHI), FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs. OAK)

    MLB Extreme Stats Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

    Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
    Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 352-327 (51.8%) for +35.71 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.3%.
    System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-120 vs NYY)

    “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
    Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1606-1497 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -180.71 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+100 at PHI), NY METS (-122 vs. MIN), BOSTON (-105 vs. SEA), ARIZONA (-185 vs. WSH)

    ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
    You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1505-1942 (43.7%) for -188.62 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+102 at NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (-135 at CIN), MIAMI (+142 at TB)

    Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
    Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3244-2839 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -424.11 units and an ROI of -7%.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, BOSTON, NY METS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO, LA ANGELS

    Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
    MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 910-795 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +7.80 units for backers and an ROI of 0.5%.
    System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-170 vs. MIA)

    Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
    Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 460-398 (53.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +7.13 units, for an ROI of 0.8%.
    System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-170 vs. MIA)

    MLB Streak Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

    Losing Streak Betting System #2:
    Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 50-112 skid (-37.59 units, ROI: -23.2%).
    System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs. KC)

    Losing Streak Betting System #3:
    Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage. They are just 62-137 (-59.54 units, ROI: -29.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
    System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs. KC)

    Losing Streak Betting System #4:
    Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-61 in their last 91 tries (-16.76 units, ROI: -18.4%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
    System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs KC)

    Losing Streak Betting System #6:
    Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 171-162 run (+36.78 units, ROI: 11%).
    System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs KC)

    Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

    The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

    Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: WASHINGTON +150 (+15 diff), PITTSBURGH +160 (+30 diff), OAKLAND +170 (+40 diff)

    Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: TAMPA BAY -170 (+17 diff), NY METS -122 (+15 diff)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: LAD-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.7)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: SEA-BOS UNDER 10 (-0.5), MIA-TB UNDER 7.5 (-0.5), COL-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5)

    MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

    (901) CHICAGO-NL (51-57) at (902) CINCINNATI (51-55)
    Trend: Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

    (903) ATLANTA (56-49) at (904) MILWAUKEE (61-45)
    Trend: ATL is 11-5 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings vs. MIL
    System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+105 at MIL)

    (905) WASHINGTON (49-58) at (906) ARIZONA (56-51)
    Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (17-21, -9.00 units)
    System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-180 vs WSH)

    (907) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-44) at (908) SAN DIEGO (57-51)
    Trend: Under the total is 3-0 in the head-to-head series at SD this season
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

    (909) CLEVELAND (64-42) at (910) DETROIT (52-56)
    Trend: Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings in Detroit
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

    (911) TORONTO (50-57) at (912) BALTIMORE (63-44)
    Trend: TOR trending Over vs. divisional teams (23-10 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

    (915) KANSAS CITY (58-49) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (27-82)
    Trend: CWS awful vs. RH starters (20-68, -40.32 units)
    System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs KC)

    (917) NEW YORK-AL (63-45) at (918) PHILADELPHIA (65-41)
    Trend: NYY is 14-4 this season as a ROAD underdog
    System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+100 at PHI)

    (919) MIAMI (39-67) at (920) TAMPA BAY (54-52)
    Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (7-29, -22.13 units)
    System Match: FADE MIAMI (+142 at MIA)

    (921) MINNESOTA (58-47) at (922) NEW YORK-NL (56-50)
    Trend: NYM slight Over vs. AL teams (14-8 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

    (923) TEXAS (52-55) at (924) ST LOUIS (54-52)
    Trend: STL is pretty good as home underdog this season (10-6 record)
    System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING ST LOUIS (+100 vs TEX)

    (929) OAKLAND (44-64) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (53-55)
    Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (13-20, -10.44 units)
    System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs OAK)

    MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

    (907) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-44) at (908) SAN DIEGO (57-51)
    Trend: Tyler Glasnow is just 5-9 (-7.00 units) as a short ROAD favorite (in line range of -115 to -140) in the last five seasons
    System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-135 at SD)

    (909) CLEVELAND (64-42) at (910) DETROIT (52-56)
    Trend: CLE is 0-3 (-5.28 units) against divisional opponents with starter Gavin Williams this season
    System Match: CONSIDER FADING CLEVELAND (-162 at DET)

    (923) TEXAS (52-55) at (924) ST LOUIS (54-52)
    Trend: Max Scherzer is 36-15 (+14.57 units) on the ROAD vs NL teams in the last five seasons
    System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-120 at STL)

    Trend: Lance Lynn is 12-2 (+9.70 units) at home within line range of +100 to -130 in the last five seasons
    System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+100 vs. TEX)

    Series #28: Seattle at Boston, Mon 7/29-Wed 7/31
    Trend: Over the total is 14-1 (93.3%, +13.00 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
    – The ROI on this trend is 86.7%
    System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)

    Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

    The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

    OAKLAND
    Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 11-19 (36.7%) -12.55 units, ROI: -41.8%   
    Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 7/30 at San Francisco
    System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+170 at SF)

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