Betting Edges for College Football Week 11 & NFL Week 10:
The results are becoming quite familiar every week for the new football strength metric I recently introduced, called the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings. The college football top 15 list usually winds up in profit, while the NFL holds serve. This past week’s college games produced a 9-6 ATS mark, bringing our season record to 57-45-1, good for 55.9%. Meanwhile, with all six weeks of pro games producing a 3-3 ATS record each time, we are 18-18 ATS overall. Considering that those records are better than I’m doing on my Best Bets columns, perhaps I’m simply overcomplicating things by not picking these games exclusively.
We’ll continue to push forward, but our Effective Play-by-Play ratings may have some weak spots that can be improved upon. For instance, I feel that the college game in itself is more of a “strength rating” type of game. By that, I mean that team strength level differences in college football play a bigger role in which team wins/covers. The talent level differences in the NFL aren’t nearly as decisive, meaning the game becomes more about situations and execution for each given week. I am also concerned that these “body of work” metrics are missing some key things, most notably how a team has done recently. I may be using the data in the coming weeks to study some other methods for employing them, specifically recency-based or forecasting strategies.
This week, I will continue posting these games and ratings, calculating the point spread versus rating variances and providing these games for readers. This piece covers the Week 11 college and Week 10 NFL betting boards.
If you are new to this analysis, I would encourage you to go back and read any of the earlier articles on the introduction and further details of the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings for college & pro football. Those can be found under my author tag. For now, here are the updated top 25 college teams and full NFL team current ratings, plus the top variances in terms of my new rating metric against the actual lines for this weekend, CFB Week 11 and NFL Week 10.
College Football Top 25 teams in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. OREGON: 77.6
2. OHIO STATE: 75.3
3. NOTRE DAME: 73.5
4. USC: 71.1
5. INDIANA: 70.1
6. TEXAS A&M: 68.7
7. FLORIDA STATE: 65.3
8. MICHIGAN: 65.1
9. VANDERBILT: 63.8
10. TENNESSEE: 63.6
11. ARKANSAS: 63.4
12. TEXAS TECH: 62.9
13. WASHINGTON: 62
14. OLE MISS: 61.8
15. ALABAMA: 61.4
16. MIAMI FL: 59.9
17. UTAH: 59.7
18. CINCINNATI: 59.5
19. GEORGIA TECH: 59.2
20. OKLAHOMA: 58.2
21. GEORGIA: 57.5
22. TEXAS: 57.3
23. MISSOURI: 57
24. BYU: 56.5
25. LOUISVILLE: 56.4
Oregon maintains the top spot after a week off and goes into November with late-month dates against USC and Washington to come. The Big Ten continues to dominate the upper part of the rankings, occupying four of the top five spots. Notre Dame’s EBPB rating takes a hit after a sloppy win versus Boston College. Miami and Cincinnati are trending down after bad losses. Arkansas is a team to keep an eye on, as the Razorbacks have been very good statistically speaking and rank 11th on this list but could be without QB Taylen Green going forward. That would drop them about five points on this scale if he is out. Texas and BYU climb into the top 25 this week, and Old Dominion, based on its easy schedule, finally drops off. The Monarchs did get us another win and cover last week against Louisiana-Monroe, though.
All NFL Teams Ranked in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 36.3
2. GREEN BAY PACKERS: 32
3. LOS ANGELES RAMS: 31.2
4. BALTIMORE RAVENS: 30.1
5. DETROIT LIONS: 30.1
6. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: 29.7
7. DENVER BRONCOS: 28.3
8. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: 27.6
9. ATLANTA FALCONS: 27.3
10. HOUSTON TEXANS: 27
11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: 26.8
12. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 26.3
13. BUFFALO BILLS: 25.6
14. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: 25.5
15. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 23.8
16. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: 23.3
17. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: 23.1
18. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: 22.4
19. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 22.3
20. ARIZONA CARDINALS: 22
21. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: 21.9
22. DALLAS COWBOYS: 20.6
23. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 20.4
24. NEW YORK JETS: 20.3
25. NEW YORK GIANTS: 19.7
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS: 19.2
27. MIAMI DOLPHINS: 19
28. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: 18.8
29. CLEVELAND BROWNS: 18.5
30. CHICAGO BEARS: 18.4
31. CINCINNATI BENGALS: 17.6
32. TENNESSEE TITANS: 14.1
The Seahawks stay in the top spot after crushing Washington on the road. Seattle shows as 4.3 points better than any other team. Green Bay’s rating drops after its loss to Carolina, but the Packers stay in the No. 2 spot among the 32 teams. Overall, there isn’t much fluctuation in the rankings despite some pretty significant results last week across the league. Pittsburgh’s win over Indy did little to boost its rating, nor did Minnesota’s over Detroit. This is an issue with “body of work” type of ratings. Similarly, it seems that mostly the same teams keep coming up on the top plays each week. I will have to look into using recency or forecast methods to see how this changes things. Stay tuned.
Comparing the EYPP equivalent ratings to the actual Week 11 college football lines:
Here are the top 15 games for this weekend, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage factored into the differences.
1. (173) OREGON at (174) IOWA
Actual Line: IOWA: +6.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: IOWA: +27.2
Difference: 20.7 – Favors: OREGON
2. (119) NORTHWESTERN at (120) USC
Actual Line: USC: -14.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: USC: -31.4
Difference: 16.9 – Favors: USC
3. (131) GEORGIA STATE at (132) COASTAL CAROLINA
Actual Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: -7.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: COASTAL CAROLINA: +4.5
Difference: 12 – Favors: GEORGIA STATE
4. (151) WAKE FOREST at (152) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA: -6.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: VIRGINIA: +5.2
Difference: 11.7 – Favors: VIRGINIA
5. (187) AIR FORCE at (188) SAN JOSE STATE
Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE: -4.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: SAN JOSE STATE: -16.2
Difference: 11.7 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE
6. (159) UAB at (160) RICE
Actual Line: RICE: -2.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: RICE: +8.9
Difference: 11.4 – Favors: UAB
7. (167) AUBURN at (168) VANDERBILT
Actual Line: VANDERBILT: -6.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: VANDERBILT: -17.1
Difference: 10.6 – Favors: VANDERBILT
8. (107) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (108) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO: -14.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: TOLEDO: -25.2
Difference: 10.7 – Favors: TOLEDO
9. (203) SAN DIEGO STATE at (204) HAWAII
Actual Line: HAWAII: +7
Effective Play-by-play Line: HAWAII: +17.4
Difference: 10.4 – Favors: SAN DIEGO STATE
10. (175) WASHINGTON at (176) WISCONSIN
Actual Line: WISCONSIN: +11.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: WISCONSIN: +21.8
Difference: 10.3 – Favors: WASHINGTON
11. (137) FLORIDA STATE at (138) CLEMSON
Actual Line: CLEMSON: -2.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: CLEMSON: +7.3
Difference: 9.8 – Favors: FLORIDA STATE
12. (145) INDIANA at (146) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE: +14.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: PENN STATE: +23.9
Difference: 9.4 – Favors: INDIANA
13. (179) KANSAS at (180) ARIZONA
Actual Line: ARIZONA: -4.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: ARIZONA: -12.8
Difference: 8.3 – Favors: ARIZONA
14. (185) JACKSONVILLE STATE at (186) UTEP
Actual Line: UTEP: +1.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: UTEP: -6.6
Difference: 8.1 – Favors: UTEP
15. (117) TULANE at (118) MEMPHIS
Actual Line: MEMPHIS: -6
Effective Play-by-play Line: MEMPHIS: +2
Difference: 8 – Favors: TULANE
Comparing the Effective Play-by-Play equivalent ratings to the actual Week 10 NFL lines:
Here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences.
1. (267) ARIZONA CARDINALS at (268) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Actual Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: -7
Effective Play-by-play Line: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: -15.1
Difference: 8.1 – Favors: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2. (273) PITTSBURGH STEELERS at (274) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Actual Line: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: -3
Effective Play-by-play Line: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: -10
Difference: 7 – Favors: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
3. (275) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at (276) GREEN BAY PACKERS
Actual Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS: -2.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: GREEN BAY PACKERS: -9
Difference: 6.5 – Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS
4. (255) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at (256) CAROLINA PANTHERS
Actual Line: CAROLINA PANTHERS: -5.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: CAROLINA PANTHERS: +0.7
Difference: 6.2 – Favors: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
5. (251) ATLANTA FALCONS at (252) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Actual Line: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: -6.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: -2.7
Difference: 3.8 – Favors: ATLANTA FALCONS
6. (257) BUFFALO BILLS at (258) MIAMI DOLPHINS
Actual Line: MIAMI DOLPHINS: +8.5
Effective Play-by-play Line: MIAMI DOLPHINS: +5.1
Difference: 3.4 – Favors: MIAMI DOLPHINS
