The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: SEA is 1-9 (-8.87 units) vs AL East with starter Bryce Miller in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+124 vs. BAL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 266-218 (55%) for +45.29 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-135 vs. AZ)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 97-115 for -16.18 units. The three-game teams are 51-54 for -0.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE OAKLAND (-112 vs. LAA), FADE CINCINNATI (+154 at NYY)

Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the DAY, going 9-24 (-22.54 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+154 at MIN)

Trend: MIN is 4-0 (+4.00 units) at HOME vs. DET with starter Bailey Ober the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 vs DET)

Trend: MIA trending Over at home (30-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-108 at OAK), KANSAS CITY (+105 vs. TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-258 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CIN), BOSTON (-155 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (+114 at TEX)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: PHI-CHC, SD-TEX, BAL-SEA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the ’24 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: NY METS, ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, LA ANGELS, BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, TEXAS

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is at 66-27 for -1.66 units (awful past series by Philadelphia vs. MIA, losing 2 games as big favorites).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (-258 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 39-24 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -13.06 units, a season long ROI of -20.7%.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-258 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 190-220 record, for -1.73 units (ROI -0.4%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 34-29 for +10.06 units over the last seventeen days.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-108 at OAK)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 168-167 record, for +16.50 units (ROI 4.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-108 at OAK)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 97-115 for -16.18 units. The three-game teams are 51-54 for -0.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE OAKLAND (-112 vs. LAA), FADE CINCINNATI (+154 at NYY)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend 3-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 117-102 for -5.44 units (-2.5% ROI) through Wednesday 7/3.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-155 at MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-135 at CHC)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 104 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/30 and these teams are 56-48 for +2.35 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-108 at OAK)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 347-319 (52.1%) for +40.21 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-102 vs. HOU), MINNESOTA (-185 vs. DET), LA DODGERS (-135 vs. AZ)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1574-1462 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -170.21 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-118 at TOR), DETROIT (+154 at MIN), ARIZONA (+114 at LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1460-1901 (43.4%) for -196.08 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at ATL), TAMPA BAY (-130 at KC), LA ANGELS (-108 at OAK)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3180-2774 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -402.11 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 vs. STL), WASHINGTON (-102 vs. NYM), OAKLAND (-112 vs. LAA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 266-218 (55%) for +45.29 units and an ROI of 9.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-135 vs AZ)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 166-149 run (+44.39 units, ROI: 14.1%).
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (+124 vs BAL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 133-137 (+14.09 units, ROI: 5.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (+124 vs. BAL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS +114 (+23 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +210 (+30 diff), CINCINNATI +154 (+28 diff), SAN DIEGO +114 (+24 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -120 (+24 diff), MILWAUKEE -142 (+24 diff), MINNESOTA -185 (+20 diff), BOSTON -155 (+20 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-CHC OVER 7.5 (+0.8), MIL-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.6), DET-MIN OVER 8 (+0.6), SD-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.9), HOU-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (42-42) at (902) WASHINGTON (40-46)
Trend: NYM trending Over on the road (24-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(903) ST LOUIS (44-41) at (904) PITTSBURGH (41-44)
Trend: STL leaning Under during the day (12-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(905) PHILADELPHIA (57-29) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (39-48)
Trend: PHI trending Under vs, NL Central/West (15-26 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(907) SAN FRANCISCO (42-45) at (908) ATLANTA (47-37)
Trend: SF trending Over during the day (24-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(909) MILWAUKEE (52-35) at (910) COLORADO (29-57)
Trend: COL worse vs. NL Central/East (8-23, -10.97 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+120 vs MIL)

(913) CHICAGO-AL (25-63) at (914) CLEVELAND (53-31)
Trend: CWS bad on the road (9-34, -19.50 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 at CLE)

(915) HOUSTON (44-42) at (916) TORONTO (39-47)
Trend: TOR slight Under vs. AL Central/West (13-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-49) at (920) OAKLAND (32-56)
Trend: LAA trending Over vs. LH starters (10-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(921) BALTIMORE (55-31) at (922) SEATTLE (47-41)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (13-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(923) TAMPA BAY (43-43) at (924) KANSAS CITY (48-40)
Trend: KC good at home (31-17, +12.75 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (+105 vs TB)

(925) CINCINNATI (41-45) at (926) NEW YORK-AL (54-34)
Trend: CIN not as good during the day (14-22, -9.94 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+154 at NYY)

(927) BOSTON (46-39) at (928) MIAMI (30-56)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (30-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(929) SAN DIEGO (47-43) at (930) TEXAS (39-47)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (12-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (42-42) at (902) WASHINGTON (40-46)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 16-3 (+12.10 units) in the shorter line favorite (-120 to -135) range in the last five seasons (including 7-0 on the road)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (*if they fall into this line range, -118 currently)

(903) ST LOUIS (44-41) at (904) PITTSBURGH (41-44)
Trend: Martin Perez is 11-5 (+6.30 units) as an underdog within +100 to +110 line range in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+100 vs. STL)

(905) PHILADELPHIA (57-29) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (39-48)
Trend: PHI is 6-13 (-9.78 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-135 at CHC)

(915) HOUSTON (44-42) at (916) TORONTO (39-47)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 11-1 (+10.38 units) in July/Aug/Sept day games in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-102 vs. HOU)

(917) DETROIT (39-47) at (918) MINNESOTA (48-38)
Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 9-24 (-22.54 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (+154 at MIN)

Trend: MIN is 4-0 (+4.00 units) at home vs. DET with starter Bailey Ober the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 vs. DET)

(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-49) at (920) OAKLAND (32-56)
Trend: OAK is 7-19 (-8.40 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (-112 vs. LAA)

(921) BALTIMORE (55-31) at (922) SEATTLE (47-41)
Trend: SEA is 1-9 (-8.87 units) vs. AL East with starter Bryce Miller in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+124 vs. BAL)

(923) TAMPA BAY (43-43) at (924) KANSAS CITY (48-40)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 16-4 (+11.23 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-130 at KC)

Trend: TB is 19-6 (+8.21 units) in night games with Zach Eflin in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-130 at KC)

(925) CINCINNATI (41-45) at (926) NEW YORK-AL (54-34)
Trend: Marcus Stroman is 7-3 (+3.60 units) in the last 10 home day game starts
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CIN)

(929) SAN DIEGO (47-43) at (930) TEXAS (39-47)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 19-4 (+11.50 units) in the last 23 day games starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-135 vs SD)

Series #6: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland, Tue 7/2-Thu 7/4
Trend: Under the total is 14-7 (66.7%, +6.24 units) in the last 21 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 29.7%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Series #8: Milwaukee at Colorado, Mon 7/1-Thu 7/4
Trend: Home teams are 14-5 (73.7%, +8.84 units) in the last 19 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 46.5%
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+120 vs. MIL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 7/5)

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