The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 17, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Cincinnati is 2-8 (20%, -6.2 units) in last 10 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -62%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (+160 at PIT)

Series #22: Detroit at Atlanta, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19

Trend: Over the total is 6-0 (100%, +6 units) in the last six games between Detroit and Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 90 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/15 and these teams are 45-45 for -5.65 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-130 vs NYM)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1430-1864 (43.4%) for -193.72 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-162 at MIA), DETROIT (+170 at ATL)

Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 0-5 (-6.00 units) vs. Boston in his career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

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DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs SD), ATLANTA (-205 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-205 vs. DET), TEXAS (-130 vs. NYM), MILWAUKEE (-115 at LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: BOS-TOR
PLAY UNDER in: STL-MIA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs. BOS), FADE CHICAGO CUBS (-118 vs. SF)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 6/9, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS, BOSTON, TEXAS, MILWAUKEE

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 48-30 for -16.13 units and a ROI of -20.7%. Last week’s 1-3 (-5.38 unit) performance built upon the season results.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-205 vs DET)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick’ em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 155-193 record, for -14.91 units (ROI -4.3%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever last week though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+160 at PIT), SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at CHC), BOSTON (+114 at TOR)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 139-148 record, for +4.26 units (ROI 1.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at CHC), BOSTON (+114 at TOR)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 85-99 for -10.72 units. The three-game teams are 43-45 for -0.41 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TORONTO (-135 vs BOS)
3+ games – FADE NY METS (+110 at TEX)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 90 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/15 and these teams are 45-45 for -5.65 units. This angle seems to be stuck in neutral this season.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-130 vs NYM)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight NFL betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1549-1439 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.67 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+114 at TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at CHC), NY METS (+110 at TEX)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1430-1864 (43.4%) for -193.72 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-162 at MIA), DETROIT (+170 at ATL)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3116-2730 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -410.29 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-205 vs. DET), TORONTO (-135 vs. BOS), PITTSBURGH (-192 vs. CIN), LA ANGELS (-105 vs. MIL)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 882-762 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +17.83 units for backers and an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): TEXAS (-130 vs NYM)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 257-214 (54.6%) for +40.03 units and an ROI of 8.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-105 vs. MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 157-146 run (+35.18 units, ROI: 11.6%).
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+136 vs STL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 125-129 (+13.51 units, ROI: 5.3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+136 vs STL)

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 54-46 (+12.38 units, ROI: 12.4%) in their last 100 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+110 at TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 128-93 (+22.03 units, ROI: 10%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+110 at TEX)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO +154 (+22 diff), CINCINNATI +160 (+30 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -155 (+19 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -118 (+18 diff), LA DODGERS -170 (+25 diff), TEXAS -130 (+19 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-MIA OVER 7 (+0.8), MIL-LAA OVER 8.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) ST LOUIS (35-35) at (952) MIAMI (23-48)
Trend: STL slight Under vs. NL East/West (10-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(953) SAN DIEGO (37-38) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (47-24)
Trend: SD trending Under vs. LH starters (8-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(957) SAN FRANCISCO (35-37) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (34-38)
Trend: SF not as good at night (15-25, -14.19 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at CHC)

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (44-29) at (960) COLORADO (25-46)
Trend: LAD not great bet vs. RH starters (25-22, -14.21 units)
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-170 at COL)

(963) DETROIT (34-37) at (964) ATLANTA (38-31)
Trend: DET slight Over in interleague play (14-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(965) NEW YORK-NL (33-37) at (966) TEXAS (33-38)
Trend: TEX trending Under in interleague play (9-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(967) MILWAUKEE (42-29) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (28-43)
Trend: LAA bad vs. RH starters (20-36, -12.12 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-105 vs MIL)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(959) LOS ANGELES-NL (44-29) at (960) COLORADO (25-46)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is profitable in +135 to +145 line range (9-4 record, +8.55 units) in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+142 vs. LAD)

(961) BOSTON (37-35) at (962) TORONTO (35-36)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 0-5 (-6.00 units) vs. Boston in his career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs. BOS)’

Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 12-17 (-13.94 units) as a NIGHT HOME favorite in career
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-135 vs. BOS)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Cincinnati is 2-8 (20%, -6.2 units) in last 10 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -62%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (+160 at PIT)

Series #22: Detroit at Atlanta, Mon 6/17-Wed 6/19
Trend: Over the total is 6-0 (100%, +6 units) in the last six games between Detroit and Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

MIAMI     

Momentum after series vs. WASHINGTON: 18-12 (60%) 11.98 units, ROI: 39.9%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 6/17 vs St Louis
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (+136 vs STL)

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