Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 25, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-218 at CWS)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 110-89 for +4.16 units (2.1% ROI) through Monday, 6/24.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL), BOSTON (-122 vs TOR), PHILADELPHIA (-125 at DET), HOUSTON (-278 vs COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 56-47 (+13.43 units, ROI: 13%) in their last 103 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-278 vs COL)
Trend: SEA trending Under at night (19-31 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TOR is 3-12 (-15.81 units) vs. AL East foes in the last two seasons with starter Kevin Gausman
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+102 at BOS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-198 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-102 vs. WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-278 vs. COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-218 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: SEA-TB, WSH-SD
PLAY UNDER in: PHI-DET
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-148 vs. CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS RL (at CWS), KANSAS CITY RL (vs. MIA), HOUSTON RL (vs. COL)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO, CLEVELAND, BOSTON, OAKLAND, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 53-30 for -11.48 units and an ROI of -13.8%. However, a 5-0 record cut into the losses significantly last week
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-278 vs. COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is back to positive at 62-23 for +5.13 units. That ROI of 6.0% has now surpassed the 2023 results.
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-218 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 34-21 since opening day 2024 and has lost -11.65 units, a season-long ROI of -21.2%.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-278 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 175-205 record for -3.10 units (ROI -0.8%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 19-14 for +8.69 units over the last eight days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs. CHC), CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL), OAKLAND (+105 at LAA), MIAMI (+164 at KC)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 155-157 record for +13.18 units (ROI 4.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+100 vs. CHC), CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL), OAKLAND (+105 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 93-109 for -14.08 units. The three-game teams are 47-50 for -1.34 units.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE ST LOUIS (+114 vs. ATL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 110-89 for +4.16 units (2.1% ROI) through Monday, 6/24.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL), BOSTON (-122 vs. TOR), PHILADELPHIA (-125 at DET), HOUSTON (-278 vs. COL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 97 plays on this angle in 2024 through 6/23, and these teams are 52-45 for +1.25 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but enjoyed a 7-1, +5.9-unit performance over the last seven days.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+105 at LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 341-318 (51.7%) for +35.58 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (+110 vs PHI)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1563-1447 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.04 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): CINCINNATI (-130 vs. PIT)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’ll want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1442-1882 (43.4%) for -199.19 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-142 at NYM), COLORADO (+225 at HOU), MIAMI (+164 at KC), OAKLAND (+105 at LAA)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3151-2748 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.45 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, NY METS, CINCINNATI, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, LA ANGELS, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 25-77 skid (-35.50 units, ROI -34.8%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+102 at BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, and they are just 61-129 (-52.68 units, ROI: -27.7%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+102 at BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 29-60 in their last 89 tries (-16.90 units, ROI: -19%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (+102 at BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 129-134 (+13.24 units, ROI: 5%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (-148 vs CLE)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 186-98 (+13.14 units, ROI: 4.6%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-278 vs. COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 56-47 (+13.43 units, ROI: 13%) in their last 103 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-278 vs COL)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 171-109 in their last 280 tries (+28.10 units, ROI: 10%).
System Matches: PLAY CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 75-85 (-44.17 units, ROI: -27.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO +100 (+33 diff), COLORADO +225 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -135 (+19 diff), NY YANKEES -142 (+20 diff), LA DODGERS -218 (+20 diff), MILWAUKEE -115 (+35 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-AZ OVER 8 (+0.8), CHC-SF OVER 8 (+0.7), CLE-BAL OVER 9 (+0.7), COL-HOU OVER 8 (+0.7), ATL-STL OVER 8.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-BOS UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), OAK-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), MIA-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), NYY-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) PITTSBURGH (37-41) at (952) CINCINNATI (37-41)
Trend: PIT trending Under vs. RH starters (19-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(953) ATLANTA (43-33) at (954) ST LOUIS (40-37)
Trend: ATL trending Under at night (14-32 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(955) WASHINGTON (38-40) at (956) SAN DIEGO (42-41)
Trend: SD trending Under vs. LH starters (10-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(959) CLEVELAND (50-26) at (960) BALTIMORE (49-29)
Trend: CLE pretty good vs. LH starters (16-5, +10.37 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL)
(961) SEATTLE (45-36) at (962) TAMPA BAY (39-40)
Trend: SEA trending Under at night (19-31 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(965) OAKLAND (29-52) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (31-46)
Trend: OAK bad on the road (11-29, -8.41 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+110 at LAA)
(969) NEW YORK-AL (52-28) at (970) NEW YORK-NL (37-39)
Trend: NYM not as good vs. AL teams (5-10, -6.75 units)
System Match: FADE NY METS (+120 vs NYY)
(971) LOS ANGELES-NL (49-31) at (972) CHICAGO-AL (21-59)
Trend: CWS bad vs. RH starters (15-47, -25.28 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+180 vs LAD)
(973) MIAMI (27-51) at (974) KANSAS CITY (43-37)
Trend: KC better at home (26-14, +11.85 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-198 vs MIA)
(977) TEXAS (37-41) at (978) MILWAUKEE (46-33)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. AL teams (20-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) PITTSBURGH (37-41) at (952) CINCINNATI (37-41)
Trend: CIN is 7-17 (-10.50 units) vs. divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene (including 1-10 (-9.50 units) in matchup vs. PIT/MIL specifically)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-130 vs PIT)
(959) CLEVELAND (50-26) at (960) BALTIMORE (49-29)
Trend: CLE was 10-2 (+8.45 units) in the -120 to +125 line range by starter Logan Allen last year (5-2, +2.92 units this season)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+124 at BAL)
(963) TORONTO (35-43) at (964) BOSTON (43-36)
Trend: TOR was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-5, -5.07 units this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+102 at BOS)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 2-7 (-4.95 units) as a road night underdog since 2019
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+102 at BOS)
(965) OAKLAND (29-52) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (31-46)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 15-6 (+12.00 units) vs. AL West teams in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (-130 vs OAK)
(967) PHILADELPHIA (52-26) at (968) DETROIT (36-42)
Trend: DET is 9-3 (+9.67 units) with starter Tarik Skubal against teams with a >60% win pct in career
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+105 vs PHI)
(975) COLORADO (27-51) at (976) HOUSTON (38-40)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 3-16 (-10.20 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+225 at HOU)
(977) TEXAS (37-41) at (978) MILWAUKEE (46-33)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 17-30 (-16.12 units) vs. teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-105 at MIL)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 22-6 (+13.02 units) on the road for line range of -102 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-105 at MIL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday 6/27)
