Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 27, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-298 vs MIA)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 160-147 run (+37.42 units, ROI: 12.2%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-112 at SF), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+270 vs. ATL)
Trend: Favorites are just 19-30 (38.8%, -23.46 units) in the last 49 games between Toronto and NY Yankees (ROI of -47.9%)
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-135 at TOR)
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 18-4 (81.8%, +15.90 units) in the last 22 games between TEX and BAL (ROI of 72.3%)
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+180 at BAL)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 25-8 (+8.95 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-166 at LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-298 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ARIZONA (-110 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-298 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): ATLANTA (-325 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-110 vs. MIN), ATLANTA (-325 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CHC-SF, PLAY UNDER in: TEX-BAL
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA RL (at CWS), PHILADELPHIA RL (vs. MIA), BALTIMORE RL (vs. TEX)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the ’24 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: SAN FRANCISCO, PHILADELPHIA, ST LOUIS, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence, the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 55-30 for -9.48 units and an ROI of -11.2%. However, a 5-0 record cut into the losses significantly last week.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-198 vs. TEX)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is back to positive at 63-23 for +6.13 units. That ROI of 7.1% has now surpassed the 2023 results.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-298 vs. MIA), PLAY ATLANTA (-325 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 36-21 since opening day 2024 and has lost -9.65 units, a season-long ROI of -16.9%.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (-198 vs. TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 180-210 record, for -2.25 units (ROI -0.6%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 24-19 for +9.54 units over the last ten days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs. CHC), MINNESOTA (-110 at AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 159-159 record, for +15.43 units (ROI 4.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs. CHC), MINNESOTA (-110 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 96-109 for -10.98 units. The three-game teams are 47-51 for -2.34 units.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE LA ANGELS (+142 vs. DET)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 115-93 for +4.76 units (2.3% ROI) through Wednesday, 6/26.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs CHC)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 99 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/26, and these teams are 52-47 for -0.80 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but enjoyed a 7-3, +3.85-unit performance over the last ten days.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-135 at TOR)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1566-1450 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.25 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): TORONTO (+114 vs. NYY)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1444-1889 (43.3%) for -204.36 units and an ROI of -6.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-166 at LAA), CINCINNATI (+110 at STL), MIAMI (+240 at PHI), CLEVELAND (-115 at KC), NY YANKEES (-135 at TOR)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3163-2753 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -388.25 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+114 vs. NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-298 vs. MIA), KANSAS CITY (-105 vs. CLE), LA ANGELS (+140 vs. DET)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 892-766 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.08 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+270 vs. ATL), ARIZONA (-112 vs. MIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 160-147 run (+37.42 units, ROI: 12.2%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-112 at SF), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+270 vs ATL)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 130-135 (+12.69 units, ROI: 4.8%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-112 at SF)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +240 (+15 diff), TEXAS +164 (+15 diff), TORONTO +114 (+15 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +260 (+40 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-AZ OVER 8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-TOR UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) CHICAGO-NL (37-44) at (952) SAN FRANCISCO (39-42)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (9-15, -8.80 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-108 vs CHC)
(953) MIAMI (28-52) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (53-27)
Trend: PHI good at night (35-15, +13.18 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-298 vs MIA)
(955) CINCINNATI (37-43) at (956) ST LOUIS (41-38)
Trend: STL more under vs. divisional opponents (5-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(959) NEW YORK-AL (52-30) at (960) TORONTO (36-43)
Trend: NYY not as good in divisional play (10-12, -5.24 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-135 at TOR)
(961) CLEVELAND (51-27) at (962) KANSAS CITY (44-38)
Trend: KC better at home (27-15, +10.93 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-105 vs CLE)
(963) DETROIT (37-43) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (33-46)
Trend: LAA bad vs. AL Central/East (10-25, -13.30 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+140 vs DET)
(967) ATLANTA (44-34) at (968) CHICAGO-AL (21-61)
Trend: ATL more Under vs. AL teams (8-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) MIAMI (28-52) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (53-27)
Trend: MIA is 10-26 (-12.89 units) on the road with starter Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+240 at PHI)
(955) CINCINNATI (37-43) at (956) ST LOUIS (41-38)
Trend: CIN is 4-2 (+2.85 units) on the road in divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott in the last two seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING CINCINNATI (+110 at STL)
(963) DETROIT (37-43) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (33-46)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 25-8 (+8.95 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-166 at LAA)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: FAVORITES are just 19-30 (38.8%, -23.46 units) in the L49 games between Toronto & NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -47.9%
System Matches: FADE NY YANKEES (-135 at TOR)
Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 18-4 (81.8%, +15.90 units) in L22 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 72.3%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+180 at BAL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
CINCINNATI
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 15-10 (60%) 5.89 units, ROI: 23.6%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 6/27 at St Louis
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+110 at STL)
