Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, June 28, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-162 vs OAK)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 96-109 for -10.98 units. The three-game teams are 48-51 for -0.98 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+164 at ATL), FADE TORONTO (-115 vs. NYY), FADE KANSAS CITY (-108 vs. CLE)
3+ games – FADE LA ANGELS (+102 vs. DET), FADE NY METS (-112 vs. HOU)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 261-218 (54.5%) for +40.24 units and an ROI of 8.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-130 vs. CIN)
Trend: SF is 13-3 (+8.20 units) at home as a favorite vs. divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs. LAD)
OAKLAND letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 9-18 (33.3%) -14.3 units, ROI: -53%
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+130 at AZ)
Trend: Favorites are just 19-31 (38%, -24.76 units) in the last 50 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -49.5%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-115 vs NYY)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (-162 vs. OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): ST LOUIS (-130 vs. CIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH FOR PHILADELPHIA vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, HOUSTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: WSH-TB, MIN-SEA, LAD-SF
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-155 vs. SD), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-130 vs. COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA RL (vs. MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, MINNESOTA, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, HOUSTON, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, OAKLAND
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 56-30 for -8.48 units and an ROI of -9.9%. However, a 5-0 record cut into the losses significantly last week.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs. PIT)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is back to positive at 63-25 for +0.30 units (awful day on 6/27, going 0-2 for -5.83 units).
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-230 vs. MIA)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 37-21 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -8.65 units, a season-long ROI of -14.9%.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-198 vs. PIT)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 180-211 record for -3.33 units (ROI -0.9%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 24-20 for +8.46 units over the last eleven days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-102 at SF), NY YANKEES (-105 at TOR), MINNESOTA (+110 at SEA), HOUSTON (-108 at NYM), OAKLAND (+142 at AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 159-160 record for +14.35 units (ROI 4.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-102 at SF), NY YANKEES (-105 at TOR), MINNESOTA (+110 at SEA), HOUSTON (-108 at NYM), OAKLAND (+142 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 96-109 for -10.98 units. The three-game teams are 48-51 for -0.98 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+164 at ATL), FADE TORONTO (-115 vs. NYY), FADE KANSAS CITY (-108 vs. CLE)
3+ games – FADE LA ANGELS (+102 vs. DET), FADE NY METS (-112 vs. HOU)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 115-94 for +3.68 units (1.8% ROI) through Thursday, 6/27.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-135 vs. CHC), LA DODGERS (-102 at SF), HOUSTON (-108 at NYM)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 100 plays on this angle in 2024 through 6/27, and these teams are 52-48 for -2.10 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-105 at TOR), OAKLAND (+142 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 342-318 (51.8%) for +36.58 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-130 vs. CIN)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1567-1450 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -164.15 units. This represents an ROI of -5.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, CINCINNATI, NY METS
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1446-1892 (43.3%) for -204.76 units and an ROI of -6.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, DETROIT, COLORADO, OAKLAND
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3166-2754 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -387.77 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, NY METS, BALTIMORE, TORONTO, SEATTLE, ARIZONA, LA ANGELS
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 893-767 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +25.33 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-180 vs. PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-130 vs. COL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 290-141 (67.3%) for +44.08 units and an ROI of 10.2%!
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-135 vs TEX)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 261-218 (54.5%) for +40.24 units and an ROI of 8.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-130 vs. CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 162-147 run (+40.72 units, ROI: 13.2%).
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+130 at AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 131-135 (+13.69 units, ROI: 5.1%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at BAL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +190 (+35 diff), KANSAS CITY -108 (+21 diff), HOUSTON -108 (+22 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE -122 (+33 diff), BOSTON -155 (+20 diff)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.7)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) MIAMI (29-52) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (53-28)
Trend: PHI good at night (35-16, +10.20 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-225 vs MIA)
(903) PITTSBURGH (39-41) at (904) ATLANTA (44-35)
Trend: PIT trending Under vs. RH starters (20-31 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(905) CHICAGO-NL (38-44) at (906) MILWAUKEE (48-33)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. RH starters (38-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(907) CINCINNATI (38-43) at (908) ST LOUIS (41-39)
Trend: STL more Under vs. divisional opponents (6-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (51-31) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (39-43)
Trend: SF not as good at night (19-27, -12.41 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs LAD)
(911) TEXAS (37-44) at (912) BALTIMORE (51-30)
Trend: BAL slight Over vs. RH starters (29-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (52-31) at (914) TORONTO (37-43)
Trend: NYY not as good in divisional play (10-13, -6.54 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-115 at TOR)
(915) CLEVELAND (51-28) at (916) KANSAS CITY (45-38)
Trend: KC better at home (28-15, +11.93 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-102 vs CLE)
(917) DETROIT (37-44) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (34-46)
Trend: LAA bad vs. AL Central/East (11-25, -11.94 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+102 vs DET)
(919) MINNESOTA (45-36) at (920) SEATTLE (46-37)
Trend: SEA better at home (27-12, +10.90 units)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-130 vs MIN)
(921) WASHINGTON (38-42) at (922) TAMPA BAY (40-41)
Trend: TB more Over vs. LH starters (13-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(925) HOUSTON (40-40) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (39-39)
Trend: HOU trending Under on the road (11-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(927) COLORADO (27-53) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (22-61)
Trend: CWS is 2-0 as a ML favorite this season
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-130 vs. COL)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(905) CHICAGO-NL (38-44) at (906) MILWAUKEE (48-33)
Trend: MIL is 5-6 (-3.42 units) as a favorite of -125 or higher by starter Colin Rea
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-135 vs CHC)
(907) CINCINNATI (38-43) at (908) ST LOUIS (41-39)
Trend: Frankie Montas 0-7 (-8.30 units) vs. NL Central in his career
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+110 at STL)
(909) LOS ANGELES-NL (51-31) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (39-43)
Trend: SF is 13-3 (+8.20 units) at home as a favorite vs. divisional opponents with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-118 vs LAD)
(911) TEXAS (37-44) at (912) BALTIMORE (51-30)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 11-7 (+6.00 units) as an underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at BAL)
(915) CLEVELAND (51-28) at (916) KANSAS CITY (45-38)
Trend: CLE is 11-4 (+6.28 units) in the last 15 road divisional games with starter Triston McKenzie
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-118 at KC)
(917) DETROIT (37-44) at (918) LOS ANGELES-AL (34-46)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is pretty good 10-2 (+7.30 units) as a short favorite in the -120 to -145 line range since 2020
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-122 at LAA)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is 13-4 (+9.89 units) in his last 17 night games
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-122 at LAA)
(921) WASHINGTON (38-42) at (922) TAMPA BAY (40-41)
Trend: TB is 18-6 (+7.21 units) in night games with Zach Eflin in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-162 vs WSH)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #9: Pittsburgh at Atlanta, Fri 6/28-Sun 6/30
Trend: Pittsburgh is 5-13 (27.8%, -4.06 units) in the last 18 games vs. Atlanta
– The ROI on this trend is -22.6%
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+150 at ATL)
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: Favorites are just 19-31 (38%, -24.76 units) in the last 50 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -49.5%
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-115 vs NYY)
Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Thu 6/27-Sun 6/30
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 18-5 (78.3%, +14.90 units) in the last 23 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 64.8%
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (+114 at BAL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
OAKLAND
Letdown after series vs. LA ANGELS: 9-18 (33.3%) -14.3 units, ROI: -53%
Next betting opportunity: Friday 6/28 at Arizona
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+130 at AZ)
