Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 3, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 124-120 record, for +16.26 units (ROI 6.7%).
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at AZ)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3079-2693 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.04 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-120 vs. NYM), TORONTO (-105 vs. BAL), TEXAS (-112 vs. DET), ARIZONA (-135 vs. SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-45 (-5.01 units, ROI: -7.6%) in their last 66 tries.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (+180 at PHI)
(963) ST LOUIS (28-29) at (964) HOUSTON (26-34)
Trend: STL trending Under as road underdog (6-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: HOU trending Under in interleague play (2-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(959) BALTIMORE (37-20) at (960) TORONTO (28-30)
Trend: BAL is 13-2 (+10.47 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-115 at TOR)
Trend: TOR was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-3, -2.60 units this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-105 vs BAL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-112 vs DET), CINCINNATI (-125 at COL), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE BOTH): HOUSTON (-180 vs STL), SAN DIEGO (-142 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: BAL-TOR, DET-TEX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-180 vs STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 thru 5/26, they are 400-329 for -4.34 units. This is below usual standards and I expect things to improve.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, WASHINGTON, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 139-158 record for +2.49 units (ROI 0.8%). This angle has settled in lately.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): MILWAUKEE (+180 at PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at AZ)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 124-120 record, for +16.26 units (ROI 6.7%). This is an angle I will be watching more closely going forward.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 72-80 for -2.86 units. The three-game teams are 38-38 for +2.90 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE ARIZONA (-135 vs SF)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system”. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 83-70 for +0.40 units (0.3% ROI) through Sunday 6/2.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+180 at PHI)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 83 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/1, and these teams are 43-40 for -3.34 units.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3079-2693 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.04 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-120 vs. NYM), TORONTO (-105 vs. BAL), TEXAS (-112 vs. DET), ARIZONA (-135 vs. SF)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 867-754 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +10.33 units for backers and an ROI of 0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+124 vs SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 84-70 outright (+4.45 units, ROI: 2.9%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+114 at AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 152-138 run (+38.00 units, ROI: 13.1%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+120 vs SD)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 166-107 in their last 273 tries (+25.85 units, ROI: 9.5%).
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+180 at PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-45 (-5.01 units, ROI: -7.6%) in their last 66 tries.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (+180 at PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 71-80 (-42.14 units, ROI: -27.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MILWAUKEE (+180 at PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +180 (+38 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +114 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -112 (+55 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-WSH OVER 8 (+0.9), BAL-TOR OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MILWAUKEE (36-23) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (41-19)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. RH starters (29-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: PHI dominant vs. RH starters (27-8, +14.21 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-218 vs MIL)
(953) NEW YORK-NL (24-35) at (954) WASHINGTON (27-31)
Trend: NYM trending Over vs. LH starters (10-4 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: WSH is 2-0 this season as a home favorite
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-122 vs NYM)
(955) CINCINNATI (26-33) at (956) COLORADO (21-37)
Trend: COL is better bet at home (13-12, +5.82 units)
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (-108 vs CIN)
(957) SAN FRANCISCO (29-31) at (958) ARIZONA (27-32)
Trend: SF trending Over on the road (19-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
Trend: AZ not good at night (15-24, -11.63 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-135 vs SF)
(959) BALTIMORE (37-20) at (960) TORONTO (28-30)
Trend: BAL trending Over as road favorite (10-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TOR not good as home underdog (1-4 record, average margin is -3.0 runs)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-105 vs BAL)
(961) DETROIT (29-30) at (962) TEXAS (29-30)
Trend: DET not as good vs. AL West/East (10-14, -5.77 units)
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-108 at TEX)
Trend: TEX trending Under vs. LH starters (5-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(963) ST LOUIS (28-29) at (964) HOUSTON (26-34)
Trend: STL trending Under as road underdog (6-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: HOU trending Under in interleague play (2-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(965) SAN DIEGO (32-30) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-38)
Trend: SD slight Under vs. LH starters (7-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: LAA bad as home underdog (6-17 record)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+124 vs SD)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) NEW YORK-NL (24-35) at (954) WASHINGTON (27-31)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 3-8 (-6.58 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-122 vs NYM)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 5-9 (-2.23 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-122 vs NYM)
(959) BALTIMORE (37-20) at (960) TORONTO (28-30)
Trend: BAL is 13-2 (+10.47 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-115 at TOR)
Trend: TOR was 2-7 (-10.74 units) vs. AL East foes last season with Kevin Gausman (1-3, -2.60 units this season)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-105 vs BAL)
(963) ST LOUIS (28-29) at (964) HOUSTON (26-34)
Trend: HOU is 4-13 (-18.91 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-180 vs STL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday 6/6)
