Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 4, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-290 vs CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 124-120 record, for +16.33 units (ROI 6.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+140 at PHI), WASHINGTON (-105 vs NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at AZ), TEXAS (-105 vs DET)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 255-211 (54.7%) for +41.03 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (+114 vs CIN)
Trend: ATL heavy Under in interleague play (2-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 1-7 (-7.62 units) vs. AL East competition since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-102 vs TB)
Trend: ATL was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (5-2, +1.83 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-166 at BOS)
Trend: BOS is 1-7 (-8.23 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+140 vs ATL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this “super” majority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-185 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): CLEVELAND (-115 vs KC), TEXAS (-105 vs DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-290 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: TB-MIA, DET-TEX
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-148 vs STL), FADE ARIZONA (-120 vs SF)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 445-368 for -11.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, SAN DIEGO
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still slightly negative at 53-22 for -1.67 units.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-290 vs CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 139-158 record for +2.66 units (ROI 0.9%). This angle has settled in well lately, and I expect that to continue.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+140 at PHI), WASHINGTON (-105 vs NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at AZ), MINNESOTA (+160 vs NYY), TEXAS (-105 vs DET)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 124-120 record, for +16.33 units (ROI 6.7%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+140 at PHI), WASHINGTON (-105 vs NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at AZ), TEXAS (-105 vs DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 75-83 for -4.36 units. The three-game teams are 38-38 for +2.85 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE DETROIT (-115 at TEX)
3+ games – FADE ARIZONA (-120 vs. SF), FADE NY YANKEES (-192 vs. MIN)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 83-71 for -0.56 units (-0.4% ROI) through Monday, 6/3.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-166 at OAK)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 82 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/3, and these teams are 41-39 for -2.34 units. This angle seems to be picking up steam lately, and I expect it to go positive soon.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 331-310 (51.6%) for +32.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (+114 vs CIN)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1532-1421 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -165.36 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): CINCINNATI (-135 at COL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1408-1837 (43.4%) for -187.29 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+140 at PHI), DETROIT (-115 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-115 at LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at AZ)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3080-2696 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -409.36 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-105 vs NYM), HOUSTON (-148 vs STL), NY YANKEES (-185 vs MIN)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 868-754 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +11.63 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-105 vs SD), OAKLAND (+140 vs SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 442-376 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +13.60 units, for an ROI of 1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (-102 vs TB)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 255-211 (54.7%) for +41.03 units and an ROI of 8.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): COLORADO (+114 vs CIN)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 25-73 skid (-31.50 units, ROI -32.1%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+235 at CHC)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 48-99 skid (-26.69 units, ROI: -18.2%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+235 at CHC)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 59-124 (-49.78 units, ROI: -27.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+235 at CHC)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 84-71 outright (+3.45 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 153-138 run (+39.30 units, ROI: 13.5%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+100 at AZ)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 179-96 (+9.04 units, ROI: 3.3%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-185 vs MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 166-108 in their last 274 tries (+24.85 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-185 vs MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE +140 (+22 diff), MINNESOTA +160 (+36 diff), TEXAS -105 (+21 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +235 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -135 (+22 diff), SAN DIEGO -115 (+35 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.9), ATL-BOS OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) MILWAUKEE (36-24) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (42-19)
Trend: PHI dominant vs. RH starters (27-8, +14.21 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-166 vs MIL)
(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (38-23) at (904) PITTSBURGH (27-32)
Trend: LAD slight Under on the Road (10-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (25-35) at (906) WASHINGTON (27-32)
Trend: NYM trending Over as a road favorite (4-1 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(907) CINCINNATI (27-33) at (908) COLORADO (21-38)
Trend: CIN not as good vs. LH starters (7-12, -6.68 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-135 at COL)
Trend: CIN good so far as road favorite (5-1 O/U, average margin victory is +5.2 runs)
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-135 at COL)
Trend: COL is better bet at home (13-12, +4.77 units)
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+114 vs CIN)
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (29-32) at (910) ARIZONA (28-32)
Trend: SF trending Over in divisional plays (15-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(911) KANSAS CITY (36-25) at (912) CLEVELAND (39-20)
Trend: CLE good at home (20-7, +9.42 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-122 vs KC)
(913) MINNESOTA (33-26) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (42-19)
Trend: MIN slight Under as road underdog (5-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (33-13, +16.87 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 vs MIN)
(915) BALTIMORE (38-20) at (916) TORONTO (28-31)
Trend: BAL trending Over as road favorite (11-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: TOR not good as home underdog (1-5 record, average margin is -3.3 runs)
System Match: FADE TORONTO (+140 vs BAL)
(917) DETROIT (30-30) at (918) TEXAS (29-31)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (7-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(919) SEATTLE (34-27) at (920) OAKLAND (24-37)
Trend: SEA good start in divisional play (12-4, +6.72 units)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-166 at OAK)
Trend: OAK not as good at night (10-23, -8.68 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+140 vs SEA)
(921) TAMPA BAY (29-31) at (922) MIAMI (21-39)
Trend: TB decent vs. LH starters (9-5, +1.99 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-118 at MIA)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (21-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(923) ATLANTA (33-24) at (924) BOSTON (30-30)
Trend: ATL heavy Under in interleague play (2-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: BOS solid as home underdog (4-2 SU record)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (+140 vs ATL)
(925) CHICAGO-AL (15-45) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (29-31)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (5-24, -15.32 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+230 at CHC)
(927) ST LOUIS (28-30) at (928) HOUSTON (27-34)
Trend: STL trending Under as road underdog (7-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
Trend: HOU trending Under in interleague play (3-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(929) SAN DIEGO (32-31) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (22-38)
Trend: SD trending Under vs. LH starters (7-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: LAA bad as home underdog (7-17 record)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-105 vs SD)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) MILWAUKEE (36-24) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (42-19)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (4-1, +3.54 units this season)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (*if they fall into this line range, +140 currently)
(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (38-23) at (904) PITTSBURGH (27-32)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 31-7 (+12.55 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-185 at PIT)
(911) KANSAS CITY (36-25) at (912) CLEVELAND (39-20)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 3-9 (-9.21 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-105 at CLE)
(917) DETROIT (30-30) at (918) TEXAS (29-31)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 6-14 (-7.87 units) as a short underdog within line range of -105 to +110 in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-105 vs DET)
(919) SEATTLE (34-27) at (920) OAKLAND (24-37)
Trend: George Kirby is 5-1 (+3.20 units) vs Oakland in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-166 at OAK)
Trend: SEA is 12-5 (+3.68 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-166 at OAK)
(921) TAMPA BAY (29-31) at (922) MIAMI (21-39)
Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 1-7 (-7.62 units) vs. AL East competition since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-102 vs TB)
(923) ATLANTA (33-24) at (924) BOSTON (30-30)
Trend: ATL was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (5-2, +1.83 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-166 at BOS)
Trend: BOS is 1-7 (-8.23 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+140 vs ATL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday 6/6)
