The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, May 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY BOTH): KANSAS CITY (+110 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (-135 vs CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-205 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, TEXAS, BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in ATL-SEA, PLAY UNDER in CHC-NYM

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON (-175 vs CLE)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY, PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL, BOSTON RL

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: SAN DIEGO, MIAMI, NY METS, LA DODGERS, MINNESOTA, KANSAS CITY, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, OAKLAND, DETROIT, SEATTLE, PHILADELPHIA, SAN FRANCISCO, TEXAS

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative at 27-16 for -11.79 units after a brutal 0-2, -5.20 units day on Friday.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-205 at CWS), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-192 at LAA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 63-69 record for +2.78 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+105 vs CHC), KANSAS CITY (+110 at TOR), NY YANKEES (+136 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+145 at HOU), MILWAUKEE (+102 vs TB), OAKLAND (-102 vs PIT), SEATTLE (+150 vs ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 34-30 for +7.08 units. The three-game teams are 17-21 for -2.06 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BALTIMORE (-162 vs NYY)
3+ games – FADE HOUSTON (-175 vs. CLE), FADE BOSTON (-110 vs. SF)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 33-26 for -1.76 units through Tuesday, 4/30.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-205 at CWS), PLAY OAKLAND (-102 vs PIT)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1481-1383 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -170.16 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+145 at HOU), DETROIT (-118 vs. STL), HOUSTON (-175 vs. CLE)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1343-1752 (43.4%) for -178.35 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO CUBS, TAMPA BAY, WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2980-2618 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -406.57 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, DETROIT, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MILWAUKEE, TEXAS, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, OAKLAND, SAN DIEGO

Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 846-717 (54.1%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +34.64 units for backers and an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 vs KC)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 426-360 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.58 units, for a ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (-130 vs KC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +105 (+17 diff), CLEVELAND +145 (+18 diff), MILWAUKEE +102 (+19 diff), SEATTLE +150 (+28 diff), LA ANGELS +160 (+16 diff), WASHINGTON +154 (+19 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOSTON -110 (+33 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-SEA OVER 7 (+1.4), LAD-AZ OVER 8.5 (+0.7), CIN-SD OVER 8 (+0.6), SF-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-CWS UNDER 9 (-1.3), STL-DET UNDER 9 (-0.8), COL-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(903) COLORADO (7-22) at (904) MIAMI (7-24)
Trend: COL has been bad on the road (2-12, -8.56 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+124 at MIA)

(905) CHICAGO-NL (18-12) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (15-14)
Trend: CHC has been good vs RH starters (16-8, +9.61 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs NYM)

(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (19-13) at (908) ARIZONA (14-17)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (13-6 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(909) MINNESOTA (16-13) at (910) CHICAGO-AL (6-24)
Trend: CWS bad during the day (2-10, -7.46 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 vs MIN)

(911) KANSAS CITY (18-13) at (912) TORONTO (15-16)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs. AL Central/West (2-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(917) TAMPA BAY (14-17) at (918) MILWAUKEE (18-11)
Trend: MIL has been good during the day (10-3, +8.06 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+102 vs TB)

(919) ST LOUIS (14-16) at (90) DETROIT (17-13)
Trend: STL trending Under vs RH starters (7-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(921) PITTSBURGH (14-17) at (922) OAKLAND (14-17)
Trend: OAK slightly better bet during the day (8-6, +5.54 units)
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (-102 vs PIT)

(923) ATLANTA (19-9) at (924) SEATTLE (17-13)
Trend: ATL heavy Under in interleague play (1-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(925) PHILADELPHIA (20-11) at (926) LOS ANGELES-AL (11-19)
Trend: LAA has not been good vs. RH starters (8-18, -9.71 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+160 vs PHI)

(927) SAN FRANCISCO (14-16) at (928) BOSTON (17-13)
Trend: BOS good vs. NL teams (6-1, +5.36 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-110 vs SF)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) CINCINNATI (16-14) at (902) SAN DIEGO (15-18)
Trend: Joe Musgrove is 6-1 (+5.05 units) vs. Cincinnati in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-135 vs CIN)

(903) COLORADO (7-22) at (904) MIAMI (7-24)
Trend: Dakota Hudson is 1-10 (-8.55 units) as a road underdog in the line range +130 to +145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (*if they fall into this line range, +124 currently)

(911) KANSAS CITY (18-13) at (912) TORONTO (15-16)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 15-5 (+7.29 units) vs. AL Central opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-130 vs KC)

(915) CLEVELAND (19-10) at (916) HOUSTON (10-19)
Trend: HOU is 3-11 (-16.26 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 with starter Justin Verlander in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-175 vs CLE)

(917) TAMPA BAY (14-17) at (918) MILWAUKEE (18-11)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-3 (+10.35 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range (including 7-1 (+5.70 units) last season with Tampa Bay)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-122 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (2-0, +2.40 units this season) with starter Colin Rea
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+102 vs TB)

(919) ST LOUIS (14-16) at (920) DETROIT (17-13)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is pretty good 10-2 (+7.30 units) as a short favorite in the -120 to -145 line range since 2020
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-120 vs STL)

Trend: Kenta Maeda has been bad during the day, going 8-22 (-20.84 units) since 2020
System Match: FADE DETROIT (-120 vs STL)

(925) PHILADELPHIA (20-11) at (926) LOS ANGELES-AL (11-19)
Trend: PHI is 17-4 (+10.97 units) in last 21 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 at LAA)

Trend: LAA is 4-14 (-13.05 units) in the last 18 day game starts by Patrick Sandoval (including 2-9 (-6.70 units) in the last 11 starts as a day game underdog)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+154 vs PHI)

(927) SAN FRANCISCO (14-16) at (928) BOSTON (17-13)
Trend: BOS is 0-6 (-7.88 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-110 vs SF)

(929) WASHINGTON (14-15) at (930) TEXAS (16-14)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 14-5 (+5.15 units) as a home favorite within line range of -155 to -210 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-170 vs WSH)

Series #7: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, Mon 4/29-Thu 5/2
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs, Fri 6/21-Sun 6/23
Trend: NY METS are 4-8 (33.3%, -11.08 units) in their last 12 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -92.3%
System Match: FADE NY METS (+105 vs CHC)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

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