Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, May 13, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
(903) CHICAGO CUBS (24-17) at (904) ATLANTA (24-13)
Trend: CHC has momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 19-8 (70.4%) 10.66 units, ROI: 39.5% in follow-up game
Trend: ATL has letdown after series vs. NY METS: 13-16 (44.8%) -6.72 units, ROI: -23.2% in follow-up game
Systems Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at ATL)
(905) PITTSBURGH (18-23) at (906) MILWAUKEE (24-16)
Trend: PIT not good vs. RH starters (9-18, -11.61 units)
Trend: PIT is 5-18 (-9.95 units) vs. teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
Trend:Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit in the previous game (ROI of 2.7% since 2018)
Systems Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-148 vs PIT)
(909) COLORADO (12-28) at (910) SAN DIEGO (22-21)
Trend: COL bad on the road (3-16, -11.02 units)
Trend: Winning Streak Betting System #5: Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 18-45 (-11.16 units, ROI: -17.7%) in their last 63 tries.
Trend: Worse bullpen teams (like COL) continue to struggle in extending winning streaks (negative ROI the last two years)
Systems Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-218 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is not a loss, and definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-108 at TEX), ST LOUIS (-105 at LAA), SEATTLE (-155 vs KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-170 vs. MIA), WASHINGTON (-135 at CWS), ST LOUIS (-105 at LAA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: PHI-NYM, LAD-SF
PLAY UNDER in: CHC-ATL, KC-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far, in 2024 through 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: NY METS, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, BALTIMORE, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, OAKLAND, SEATTLE, DETROIT, WASHINGTON, ST LOUIS
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving quickly at 35-17 for -6.08 units.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-218 vs COL), PLAY LA DODGERS (-192 at SF)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 20-12 since opening day 2024 and has lost -5.58 units, an ROI of -17.4%.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO (-218 vs. COL), FADE LA DODGERS (-192 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 92-107 record, for -1.62 units.. This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-102 vs PHI), CLEVELAND (-108 at TEX), OAKLAND (+154 at HOU), ST LOUIS (-105 at LAA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 32-41 for +0.19 units after a poor two-week plus stretch of 18-23 for -6.82 units. The three-game teams are 24-27 for -1.16 units, our first touch into negative territory, where they are expected to remain. The three-game angle was 10-14 for -4.66 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+160 vs. LAD)
3+ games – FADE COLORADO (+180 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1497-1401 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -174.88 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-142 vs. CIN), HOUSTON (-185 vs. OAK)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1368-1784 (43.4%) for -182.44 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+145 at BAL), WASHINGTON (-135 at CWS), LA DODGERS (-185 at SF)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3020-2645 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -400.25 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-185 vs. OAK), ARIZONA (-142 vs. CIN), SEATTLE (-155 vs. KC), SAN FRANCISCO (+154 vs. LAD)
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 851-731 (53.8%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +23.55 units for backers and an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-175 vs TOR)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 434-365 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.86 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-112 vs. CLE), MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. PIT)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 251-209 (54.6%) for +38.90 units and an ROI of 8.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): DETROIT (-170 vs MIA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 18-45 (-11.16 units, ROI: -17.7%) in their last 63 tries.
System Matches: FADE COLORADO (+180 at SD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS -102 (+28 diff), COLORADO +180 (+34 diff), TORONTO +175 (+18 diff), OAKLAND +154 (+17 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -148 (+15 diff), WASHINGTON -142 (+18 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-DET UNDER 9 (-1.2)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (28-13) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (19-20)
Trend: NYM trending Under at home (7-15 O/U)
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (o/u at 7.5)
(903) CHICAGO-NL (24-17) at (904) ATLANTA (24-13)
Trend: ATL good at home (13-4, +5.64 units)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-148 vs CHC)
(905) PITTSBURGH (18-23) at (906) MILWAUKEE (24-16)
Trend: PIT not good vs. RH starters (9-18, -11.61 units)
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+124 at MIL)
(907) CINCINNATI (17-23) at (908) ARIZONA (19-22)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. RH starters (6-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(909) COLORADO (12-28) at (910) SAN DIEGO (22-21)
Trend: COL bad on the road (3-16, -11.02 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+180 at SD)
(911) LOS ANGELES-NL (27-15) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (19-23)
Trend: SF not as good at night (8-16, -12.08 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+160 vs LAD)
(913) TORONTO (18-22) at (914) BALTIMORE (26-13)
Trend: BAL good in divisional play so far (6-1, +4.55 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-175 vs TOR)
(917) CLEVELAND (25-16) at (918) TEXAS (22-20)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (5-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(921) KANSAS CITY (25-17) at (922) SEATTLE (22-19)
Trend: SEA more Under at night (9-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(923) MIAMI (11-31) at (924) DETROIT (20-20)
Trend: MIA trending Over vs. RH starters (18-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(927) ST LOUIS (16-24) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (15-26)
Trend: LAA better vs. LH starters (5-1, +5.08 units)
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (-108 vs STL)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) PHILADELPHIA (28-13) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (19-20)
Trend: PHI is 4-12 (-10.53 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-118 at NYM)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 3-9 (-6.16 units) with line range of -114 or worse at home
System Match: FADE NY METS (-102 vs PHI)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 1-4 (-4.29 units) against NL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-102 vs PHI)
(905) PITTSBURGH (18-23) at (906) MILWAUKEE (24-16)
Trend: PIT is 5-18 (-9.95 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH (+124 at MIL)
Trend: MIL is 2-5 (-5.00 units) as a favorite of -125 or higher by starter Colin Rea
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-148 vs PIT)
(909) COLORADO (12-28) at (910) SAN DIEGO (22-21)
Trend: Dakota Hudson is 9-5 (+4.59 units) against NL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+180 at SD)
(913) TORONTO (18-22) at (914) BALTIMORE (26-13)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 9-1 (+7.90 units) vs. Baltimore in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+145 at BAL)
(915) TAMPA BAY (20-21) at (916) BOSTON (21-19)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 12-4 (+6.27 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-105 at BOS)
(917) CLEVELAND (25-16) at (918) TEXAS (22-20)
Trend: CLE is 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last year (2-0, +2.00 units this year)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-108 at TEX)
(919) OAKLAND (19-23) at (920) HOUSTON (15-25)
Trend: Ross Stripling is 4-10 (-3.95 units) as a nighttime underdog in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+154 at HOU)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Oakland at Houston, Mon 5/13-Thu 5/16
Trend: Oakland is 4-16 (20%, -7.05 units) in its last 20 games vs. Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is -35.3%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+154 at HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 13-16 (44.8%) -6.72 units, ROI: -23.2%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 5/13 vs. Chicago Cubs
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-148 vs CHC)
CHICAGO CUBS
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 19-8 (70.4%) 10.66 units, ROI: 39.5%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 5/13 at Atlanta
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (+124 at ATL)
PITTSBURGH
Letdown after series vs. CHICAGO CUBS: 10-17 (37%) -4.28 units, ROI: -15.9%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 5/13 at Milwaukee
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+124 at MIL)
SAN DIEGO
Letdown after series vs. LA DODGERS: 17-15 (53.1%) -3.65 units, ROI: -11.4%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 5/13 vs. Colorado
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO (-218 vs COL)
